{"source":"polymarket","id":"535097","ticker":"claude-opus-4pt8-arena-debut","slug":"claude-opus-4pt8-arena-debut","title":"Claude Opus 4.8: Arena Debut?","description":"This market will resolve according to the score the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the relevant score falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.\n\nAny Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as \"Opus 4.8\" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-4.8, claude-opus-4.8-thinking, claude-opus-4.8-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus 4.8 variant will not qualify.\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.\n\nIf multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.\n\nA qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-28T19:18:10.804873Z","end_date":null,"closed_time":null,"volume":6823.060127999999,"volume_24hr":1076.822265,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":15.499201774597168,"normalized_volume":17.681955337524414,"liquidity":5615.16841,"open_interest":5079.908874999999,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"553","slug":"anthropic","label":"anthropic"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"104752","slug":"debut","label":"Debut"},{"id":"103303","slug":"claude","label":"Claude"},{"id":"103160","slug":"rewards-50-4pt5-20","label":"Rewards 50, 4.5, 20"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"1490-1500","top_outcome_probability":0.44,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.09499999999999997,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":87.443021,"updated_at":"2026-05-31T09:42:08.444500Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-31T09:42:08.444500Z","added_at":"2026-05-28T19:05:00.192896Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/claude-opus-4pt8-arena-debut","chart_24h":[985.890508,985.890508,709.63067,709.63067,709.63067,709.63067,707.63067,604.04067,604.04067,581.818449,583.818449,663.818449,663.818449,354.045545,413.565545,355.686306,355.686306,380.176306,576.406742,441.782802,766.782802,942.022265,966.822265,966.822265,966.822265,966.822265,966.822265,1016.822265,1036.822265,1076.822265,1076.822265,1076.822265,1076.822265,1076.822265],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2379997","event_id":"535097","slug":"will-the-next-claude-opus-4pt8-model-added-to-the-arena-leaderboard-debut-at-a-score-between-1490-and-1500","question":"Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?","group_item_title":"1490-1500","description":"This market will resolve according to the score the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the relevant score falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.\n\nAny Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as \"Opus 4.8\" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-4.8, claude-opus-4.8-thinking, claude-opus-4.8-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus 4.8 variant will not qualify.\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.\n\nIf multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.\n\nA qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.44,0.56],"probability":0.44,"spread":0.34,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-28T18:13:16.894000Z","end_date":null,"closed_time":null,"volume":951.154625,"volume_24hr":121.754383,"prob_24h_change":0.09499999999999997,"volume_24h_change":87.443021,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.640648365020752,"normalized_volume":13.801785469055176,"liquidity":191.4391,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"updated_at":"2026-05-31T09:42:08.597824Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-31T09:42:08.597824Z","added_at":"2026-05-28T19:05:00.233021Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/claude-opus-4pt8-arena-debut/will-the-next-claude-opus-4pt8-model-added-to-the-arena-leaderboard-debut-at-a-score-between-1490-and-1500","event_title":"Claude Opus 4.8: Arena Debut?","chart_24h":[0.325,0.325,0.395,0.385,0.33,0.41,0.365,0.36,0.35,0.395,0.41,0.38,0.355,0.34,0.4,0.43,0.365,0.37,0.385,0.41,0.385,0.34,0.345,0.385,0.37,0.355,0.3,0.46,0.36,0.395,0.405,0.445,0.42,0.425]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2379998","event_id":"535097","slug":"will-the-next-claude-opus-4pt8-model-added-to-the-arena-leaderboard-debut-at-a-score-between-1500-and-1510","question":"Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?","group_item_title":"1500-1510","description":"This market will resolve according to the score the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the relevant score falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.\n\nAny Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as \"Opus 4.8\" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-4.8, claude-opus-4.8-thinking, claude-opus-4.8-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus 4.8 variant will not qualify.\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.\n\nIf multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.\n\nA qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.41,0.59],"probability":0.41,"spread":0.28,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-28T18:25:18.237000Z","end_date":null,"closed_time":null,"volume":597.3830409999999,"volume_24hr":44.49,"prob_24h_change":0.10500000000000004,"volume_24h_change":-39.42304099999999,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.812413692474365,"normalized_volume":11.99567985534668,"liquidity":525.095,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"updated_at":"2026-05-31T09:42:08.597824Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-31T09:42:08.597824Z","added_at":"2026-05-28T19:05:00.233021Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/claude-opus-4pt8-arena-debut/will-the-next-claude-opus-4pt8-model-added-to-the-arena-leaderboard-debut-at-a-score-between-1500-and-1510","event_title":"Claude Opus 4.8: Arena Debut?","chart_24h":[0.305,0.3,0.29,0.315,0.315,0.32,0.305,0.32,0.325,0.33,0.32,0.325,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.505,0.475,0.475,0.385,0.495,0.44,0.495,0.39,0.39,0.375,0.365,0.395,0.4,0.41,0.405,0.41,0.395]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2379996","event_id":"535097","slug":"will-the-next-claude-opus-4pt8-model-added-to-the-arena-leaderboard-debut-at-a-score-between-1480-and-1490","question":"Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?","group_item_title":"1480-1490","description":"This market will resolve according to the score the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the relevant score falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.\n\nAny Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as \"Opus 4.8\" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-4.8, claude-opus-4.8-thinking, claude-opus-4.8-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus 4.8 variant will not qualify.\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.\n\nIf multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.\n\nA qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.155,0.845],"probability":0.155,"spread":0.25,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-28T18:22:49.688000Z","end_date":null,"closed_time":null,"volume":866.6158999999999,"volume_24hr":111.338463,"prob_24h_change":-0.28500000000000003,"volume_24h_change":-39.21943599999999,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.582799911499023,"normalized_volume":13.430122375488281,"liquidity":160.7856,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"updated_at":"2026-05-31T09:42:08.597824Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-31T09:42:08.597824Z","added_at":"2026-05-28T19:05:00.233021Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/claude-opus-4pt8-arena-debut/will-the-next-claude-opus-4pt8-model-added-to-the-arena-leaderboard-debut-at-a-score-between-1480-and-1490","event_title":"Claude Opus 4.8: Arena Debut?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.465,0.46,0.46,0.465,0.465,0.46,0.465,0.46,0.46,0.3,0.295,0.285,0.265,0.29,0.305,0.285,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.28,0.23,0.28,0.235,0.285,0.24,0.18]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2380000","event_id":"535097","slug":"will-the-next-claude-opus-4pt8-model-added-to-the-arena-leaderboard-debut-at-a-score-of-at-least-1520","question":"Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?","group_item_title":"1520+","description":"This market will resolve according to the score the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the relevant score falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.\n\nAny Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as \"Opus 4.8\" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-4.8, claude-opus-4.8-thinking, claude-opus-4.8-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus 4.8 variant will not qualify.\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.\n\nIf multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.\n\nA qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0685,0.9315],"probability":0.0685,"spread":0.053,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-28T18:25:29.183000Z","end_date":null,"closed_time":null,"volume":1995.6442109999998,"volume_24hr":443.569283,"prob_24h_change":0.022000000000000006,"volume_24h_change":290.15185599999995,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.275919914245605,"normalized_volume":16.942855834960938,"liquidity":2383.60152,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"updated_at":"2026-05-31T08:24:46.100419Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-31T08:23:59.617973Z","added_at":"2026-05-28T19:05:00.233021Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/claude-opus-4pt8-arena-debut/will-the-next-claude-opus-4pt8-model-added-to-the-arena-leaderboard-debut-at-a-score-of-at-least-1520","event_title":"Claude Opus 4.8: Arena Debut?","chart_24h":[0.0465,0.0465,0.0465,0.0465,0.0465,0.0465,0.0465,0.0465,0.0465,0.046,0.0465,0.5645,0.217,0.1635,0.198,0.1755,0.1755,0.161,0.0685,0.087,0.0685,0.0635,0.068,0.0685]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2379999","event_id":"535097","slug":"will-the-next-claude-opus-4pt8-model-added-to-the-arena-leaderboard-debut-at-a-score-between-1510-and-1520","question":"Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520?","group_item_title":"1510-1520","description":"This market will resolve according to the score the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the relevant score falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.\n\nAny Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as \"Opus 4.8\" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-4.8, claude-opus-4.8-thinking, claude-opus-4.8-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus 4.8 variant will not qualify.\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.\n\nIf multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.\n\nA qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.065,0.935],"probability":0.065,"spread":0.05,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-28T19:03:46.362000Z","end_date":null,"closed_time":null,"volume":928.913849,"volume_24hr":237.1,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":23.310225000000003,"normalized_vol_24hr":9.890275001525879,"normalized_volume":13.706826210021973,"liquidity":331.2585,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"updated_at":"2026-05-31T09:07:51.554975Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-31T07:41:06.913087Z","added_at":"2026-05-28T19:05:00.233021Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/claude-opus-4pt8-arena-debut/will-the-next-claude-opus-4pt8-model-added-to-the-arena-leaderboard-debut-at-a-score-between-1510-and-1520","event_title":"Claude Opus 4.8: Arena Debut?","chart_24h":[0.075,0.065,0.065,0.065,0.065,0.065,0.065,0.065,0.075,0.07,0.075,0.07,0.075,0.075,0.075,0.07,0.07,0.065,0.065,0.065]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2379995","event_id":"535097","slug":"will-the-next-claude-opus-4pt8-model-added-to-the-arena-leaderboard-debut-at-a-score-below-1480","question":"Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?","group_item_title":"<1480","description":"This market will resolve according to the score the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the relevant score falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.\n\nAny Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as \"Opus 4.8\" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-4.8, claude-opus-4.8-thinking, claude-opus-4.8-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus 4.8 variant will not qualify.\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.\n\nIf multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.\n\nA qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0555,0.9445],"probability":0.0555,"spread":0.047,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-28T18:12:51.498000Z","end_date":null,"closed_time":null,"volume":1483.348502,"volume_24hr":110.373416,"prob_24h_change":-0.0155,"volume_24h_change":-30.616584000000003,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.3346757888793945,"normalized_volume":15.64655876159668,"liquidity":1983.11829,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"updated_at":"2026-05-31T09:42:08.597824Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-31T09:42:08.597824Z","added_at":"2026-05-28T19:05:00.233021Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/claude-opus-4pt8-arena-debut/will-the-next-claude-opus-4pt8-model-added-to-the-arena-leaderboard-debut-at-a-score-below-1480","event_title":"Claude Opus 4.8: Arena Debut?","chart_24h":[0.0755,0.0755,0.076,0.076,0.076,0.076,0.0775,0.076,0.085,0.085,0.0715,0.076,0.071,0.0755,0.0755,0.071,0.075,0.0755,0.0755,0.0755,0.0725,0.074,0.073,0.0755,0.075,0.073,0.0705,0.064,0.0665,0.072,0.059,0.0575,0.0575]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/535097","as_of":"2026-05-31T09:42:17.227977Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Claude Opus 4.8: Arena Debut?\" — top market at 7% probability across 6 outcomes","source_url":null}}