{"source":"polymarket","id":"547946","ticker":null,"slug":"what-caused-the-blue-origin-new-glenn-explosion","title":"What caused the Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion?","description":"On May 28, 2026, a Blue Origin New Glenn rocket exploded on its launch pad during a hot-fire test (see: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/blue-origin-new-glenn-rocket-explodes-launchpad-florida/).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed category that most directly aligns with the technical failure publicly identified by Blue Origin as the cause of this explosion.\n\nIf Blue Origin identifies multiple contributing causes, this market will resolve based on the cause Blue Origin describes as the primary cause of the explosion. If Blue Origin does not designate a primary cause, this market will resolve based on the cause most prominently featured in their official disclosure.\n\nIf Blue Origin identifies any cause not clearly encompassed by any of the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nA preliminary or interim finding may qualify for resolution, provided it identifies a cause without material qualification.\n\nIf Blue Origin does not publicly disclose the primary cause of the explosion by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Cause Announced by December 31.”\n\nAn overwhelming consensus of credible reporting (e.g. reporting on Blue Origin communications through the media or the results of governmental investigations) on the cause of the explosion may also qualify in place of a formal Blue Origin declaration.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-caused-the-blue-origin-new-glenn-explosion-tePdw4aF3bbt.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-caused-the-blue-origin-new-glenn-explosion-tePdw4aF3bbt.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-01T12:22:02.627640Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T17:50:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":427.306134,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":7.673954010009766,"liquidity":826.9182,"open_interest":202.070557,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"100368","slug":"bezos","label":"Bezos"},{"id":"101293","slug":"rocket","label":"rocket"},{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Propellant Leak","top_outcome_probability":0.435,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-26T06:42:14.530911Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-26T06:42:14.530911Z","added_at":"2026-06-01T12:31:43.819871Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-caused-the-blue-origin-new-glenn-explosion","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2409773","event_id":"547946","slug":"did-a-propellant-leak-cause-the-blue-origin-new-glenn-explosion","question":"Did a propellant leak cause the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion?","group_item_title":"Propellant Leak","description":"On May 28, 2026, a Blue Origin New Glenn rocket exploded on its launch pad during a hot-fire test (see: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/blue-origin-new-glenn-rocket-explodes-launchpad-florida/).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed category that most directly aligns with the technical failure publicly identified by Blue Origin as the cause of this explosion.\n\nIf Blue Origin identifies multiple contributing causes, this market will resolve based on the cause Blue Origin describes as the primary cause of the explosion. If Blue Origin does not designate a primary cause, this market will resolve based on the cause most prominently featured in their official disclosure.\n\nIf Blue Origin identifies any cause not clearly encompassed by any of the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nA preliminary or interim finding may qualify for resolution, provided it identifies a cause without material qualification.\n\nIf Blue Origin does not publicly disclose the primary cause of the explosion by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Cause Announced by December 31.”\n\nAn overwhelming consensus of credible reporting (e.g. reporting on Blue Origin communications through the media or the results of governmental investigations) on the cause of the explosion may also qualify in place of a formal Blue Origin declaration.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.435,0.565],"probability":0.435,"spread":0.61,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-01T12:22:03.434039Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T17:50:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":40.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":3.822628974914551,"liquidity":113.9655,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-26T06:27:38.166324Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-26T06:24:52.238142Z","added_at":"2026-06-01T12:31:43.850957Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-caused-the-blue-origin-new-glenn-explosion/did-a-propellant-leak-cause-the-blue-origin-new-glenn-explosion","event_title":"What caused the Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion?","chart_24h":[0.43,0.415,0.415,0.415,0.415,0.415,0.415,0.415,0.415,0.415,0.415,0.415,0.43,0.435,0.435,0.435,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.435]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2409775","event_id":"547946","slug":"did-a-ground-support-equipment-failure-cause-the-blue-origin-new-glenn-explosion","question":"Did a ground support equipment failure cause the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion?","group_item_title":"Ground Support Equipment Failure","description":"On May 28, 2026, a Blue Origin New Glenn rocket exploded on its launch pad during a hot-fire test (see: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/blue-origin-new-glenn-rocket-explodes-launchpad-florida/).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed category that most directly aligns with the technical failure publicly identified by Blue Origin as the cause of this explosion.\n\nIf Blue Origin identifies multiple contributing causes, this market will resolve based on the cause Blue Origin describes as the primary cause of the explosion. If Blue Origin does not designate a primary cause, this market will resolve based on the cause most prominently featured in their official disclosure.\n\nIf Blue Origin identifies any cause not clearly encompassed by any of the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nA preliminary or interim finding may qualify for resolution, provided it identifies a cause without material qualification.\n\nIf Blue Origin does not publicly disclose the primary cause of the explosion by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Cause Announced by December 31.”\n\nAn overwhelming consensus of credible reporting (e.g. reporting on Blue Origin communications through the media or the results of governmental investigations) on the cause of the explosion may also qualify in place of a formal Blue Origin declaration.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.418,0.582],"probability":0.418,"spread":0.634,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-01T12:22:39.426722Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T17:50:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":67.824975,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.08549999999999996,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":4.9634175300598145,"liquidity":116.5715,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-26T06:43:55.885039Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-26T06:42:15.629510Z","added_at":"2026-06-01T12:31:43.850957Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-caused-the-blue-origin-new-glenn-explosion/did-a-ground-support-equipment-failure-cause-the-blue-origin-new-glenn-explosion","event_title":"What caused the Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion?","chart_24h":[0.3325,0.2955,0.274,0.2675,0.2625,0.251,0.2445,0.373,0.331,0.409,0.378,0.33,0.322,0.316,0.4715,0.442,0.403,0.3805,0.3605,0.3355,0.474,0.4525,0.475,0.3185,0.4515,0.3035,0.2755,0.3785,0.291,0.26,0.2435,0.233,0.223,0.213,0.2015,0.1925,0.4655,0.4415]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2409778","event_id":"547946","slug":"will-no-cause-of-the-blue-origin-new-glenn-explosion-be-announced-by-december-31","question":"Will no cause of the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion be announced by December 31?","group_item_title":"No Cause Announced By December 31","description":"On May 28, 2026, a Blue Origin New Glenn rocket exploded on its launch pad during a hot-fire test (see: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/blue-origin-new-glenn-rocket-explodes-launchpad-florida/).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed category that most directly aligns with the technical failure publicly identified by Blue Origin as the cause of this explosion.\n\nIf Blue Origin identifies multiple contributing causes, this market will resolve based on the cause Blue Origin describes as the primary cause of the explosion. If Blue Origin does not designate a primary cause, this market will resolve based on the cause most prominently featured in their official disclosure.\n\nIf Blue Origin identifies any cause not clearly encompassed by any of the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nA preliminary or interim finding may qualify for resolution, provided it identifies a cause without material qualification.\n\nIf Blue Origin does not publicly disclose the primary cause of the explosion by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Cause Announced by December 31.”\n\nAn overwhelming consensus of credible reporting (e.g. reporting on Blue Origin communications through the media or the results of governmental investigations) on the cause of the explosion may also qualify in place of a formal Blue Origin declaration.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.388,0.612],"probability":0.388,"spread":0.75,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-01T12:22:45.181783Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T17:50:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":70.49,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.0005000000000000004,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":5.052940368652344,"liquidity":111.69027,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-26T06:43:55.885039Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-26T06:42:15.629510Z","added_at":"2026-06-01T12:31:43.850957Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-caused-the-blue-origin-new-glenn-explosion/will-no-cause-of-the-blue-origin-new-glenn-explosion-be-announced-by-december-31","event_title":"What caused the Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion?","chart_24h":[0.3885,0.3705,0.3335,0.3695,0.3725,0.334,0.415,0.363,0.364,0.348,0.333,0.389,0.4035,0.3645,0.362,0.3815,0.4195,0.3485,0.3545,0.3655,0.393,0.3535,0.3525,0.3315,0.3705,0.321,0.3545,0.346,0.4165,0.3875,0.418,0.424,0.3665,0.365,0.348,0.4005,0.3805,0.3635]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2409774","event_id":"547946","slug":"did-a-valve-or-plumbing-failure-cause-the-blue-origin-new-glenn-explosion","question":"Did a valve or plumbing failure cause the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion?","group_item_title":"Valve or Plumbing Failure","description":"On May 28, 2026, a Blue Origin New Glenn rocket exploded on its launch pad during a hot-fire test (see: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/blue-origin-new-glenn-rocket-explodes-launchpad-florida/).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed category that most directly aligns with the technical failure publicly identified by Blue Origin as the cause of this explosion.\n\nIf Blue Origin identifies multiple contributing causes, this market will resolve based on the cause Blue Origin describes as the primary cause of the explosion. If Blue Origin does not designate a primary cause, this market will resolve based on the cause most prominently featured in their official disclosure.\n\nIf Blue Origin identifies any cause not clearly encompassed by any of the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nA preliminary or interim finding may qualify for resolution, provided it identifies a cause without material qualification.\n\nIf Blue Origin does not publicly disclose the primary cause of the explosion by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Cause Announced by December 31.”\n\nAn overwhelming consensus of credible reporting (e.g. reporting on Blue Origin communications through the media or the results of governmental investigations) on the cause of the explosion may also qualify in place of a formal Blue Origin declaration.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.36,0.64],"probability":0.36,"spread":0.62,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-01T12:22:05.474526Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T17:50:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":92.276284,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.040000000000000036,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":5.702186107635498,"liquidity":102.2914,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-26T06:27:38.166324Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-26T06:24:52.238142Z","added_at":"2026-06-01T12:31:43.850957Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-caused-the-blue-origin-new-glenn-explosion/did-a-valve-or-plumbing-failure-cause-the-blue-origin-new-glenn-explosion","event_title":"What caused the Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion?","chart_24h":[0.4,0.405,0.395,0.39,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.41,0.385,0.39,0.395,0.435,0.43,0.425,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.415,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.365,0.365,0.355,0.355,0.355,0.345,0.345,0.345,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.36]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2409777","event_id":"547946","slug":"did-another-cause-lead-to-the-blue-origin-new-glenn-explosion","question":"Did another cause lead to the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion?","group_item_title":"Other","description":"On May 28, 2026, a Blue Origin New Glenn rocket exploded on its launch pad during a hot-fire test (see: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/blue-origin-new-glenn-rocket-explodes-launchpad-florida/).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed category that most directly aligns with the technical failure publicly identified by Blue Origin as the cause of this explosion.\n\nIf Blue Origin identifies multiple contributing causes, this market will resolve based on the cause Blue Origin describes as the primary cause of the explosion. If Blue Origin does not designate a primary cause, this market will resolve based on the cause most prominently featured in their official disclosure.\n\nIf Blue Origin identifies any cause not clearly encompassed by any of the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nA preliminary or interim finding may qualify for resolution, provided it identifies a cause without material qualification.\n\nIf Blue Origin does not publicly disclose the primary cause of the explosion by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Cause Announced by December 31.”\n\nAn overwhelming consensus of credible reporting (e.g. reporting on Blue Origin communications through the media or the results of governmental investigations) on the cause of the explosion may also qualify in place of a formal Blue Origin declaration.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.3345,0.6655],"probability":0.3345,"spread":0.631,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-01T12:22:42.576803Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T17:50:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":72.957099,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.0005000000000000004,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":5.1335649490356445,"liquidity":137.23927,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-26T06:43:55.885039Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-26T06:42:15.629510Z","added_at":"2026-06-01T12:31:43.850957Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-caused-the-blue-origin-new-glenn-explosion/did-another-cause-lead-to-the-blue-origin-new-glenn-explosion","event_title":"What caused the Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion?","chart_24h":[0.335,0.335,0.334,0.334,0.334,0.334,0.334,0.335,0.334,0.334,0.334,0.431,0.4065,0.3845,0.3685,0.3545,0.3385,0.3345,0.3345,0.3345,0.3345,0.395,0.326,0.3215,0.322,0.322,0.322,0.349,0.3045,0.3045,0.38,0.3355,0.3765,0.335,0.335]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2409776","event_id":"547946","slug":"did-a-software-or-control-system-failure-cause-the-blue-origin-new-glenn-explosion","question":"Did a software or control system failure cause the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion?","group_item_title":"Software or Control System Failure","description":"On May 28, 2026, a Blue Origin New Glenn rocket exploded on its launch pad during a hot-fire test (see: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/blue-origin-new-glenn-rocket-explodes-launchpad-florida/).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed category that most directly aligns with the technical failure publicly identified by Blue Origin as the cause of this explosion.\n\nIf Blue Origin identifies multiple contributing causes, this market will resolve based on the cause Blue Origin describes as the primary cause of the explosion. If Blue Origin does not designate a primary cause, this market will resolve based on the cause most prominently featured in their official disclosure.\n\nIf Blue Origin identifies any cause not clearly encompassed by any of the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nA preliminary or interim finding may qualify for resolution, provided it identifies a cause without material qualification.\n\nIf Blue Origin does not publicly disclose the primary cause of the explosion by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Cause Announced by December 31.”\n\nAn overwhelming consensus of credible reporting (e.g. reporting on Blue Origin communications through the media or the results of governmental investigations) on the cause of the explosion may also qualify in place of a formal Blue Origin declaration.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.315,0.685],"probability":0.315,"spread":0.53,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-01T12:22:40.439880Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T17:50:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":40.489999999999995,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.034999999999999976,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":3.8471264839172363,"liquidity":128.3333,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-26T06:27:38.166324Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-26T06:24:52.238142Z","added_at":"2026-06-01T12:31:43.850957Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-caused-the-blue-origin-new-glenn-explosion/did-a-software-or-control-system-failure-cause-the-blue-origin-new-glenn-explosion","event_title":"What caused the Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion?","chart_24h":[0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.365,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.425,0.405,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.345,0.35,0.35,0.345,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.315]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2409772","event_id":"547946","slug":"did-an-engine-failure-cause-the-blue-origin-new-glenn-explosion","question":"Did an engine failure cause the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion?","group_item_title":"Engine Failure","description":"On May 28, 2026, a Blue Origin New Glenn rocket exploded on its launch pad during a hot-fire test (see: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/blue-origin-new-glenn-rocket-explodes-launchpad-florida/).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed category that most directly aligns with the technical failure publicly identified by Blue Origin as the cause of this explosion.\n\nIf Blue Origin identifies multiple contributing causes, this market will resolve based on the cause Blue Origin describes as the primary cause of the explosion. 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