{"source":"polymarket","id":"577009","ticker":"july-2026-temperature-increase-c-20260608140824583","slug":"july-2026-temperature-increase-c-20260608140824583","title":"July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)","description":"This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Jul\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-09T17:25:31.295557Z","end_date":"2026-08-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":303.33,"volume_24hr":303.33,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":13.266120910644531,"normalized_volume":7.175913333892822,"liquidity":391.7166,"open_interest":288.329998,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"74","slug":"science","label":"Science"},{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"832","slug":"global-temp","label":"Global Temp"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"1.15–1.19ºC","top_outcome_probability":0.42,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":41.05,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T11:22:01.606051Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T11:22:01.606051Z","added_at":"2026-06-09T17:20:51.374009Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/july-2026-temperature-increase-c-20260608140824583","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,303.33,303.33,303.33,303.33,303.33,303.33,303.33,303.33,303.33,303.33,303.33,303.33,303.33,303.33,303.33,303.33,303.33,303.33,303.33,303.33,303.33,303.33],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2480294","event_id":"577009","slug":"will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt15c-and-1pt19c-in-july-2026-20260608140825778","question":"Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026?","group_item_title":"1.15–1.19ºC","description":"This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Jul\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.42,0.58],"probability":0.42,"spread":0.74,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-09T17:14:49.784168Z","end_date":"2026-08-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":41.05,"volume_24hr":41.05,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":41.05,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.807309627532959,"normalized_volume":3.5857620239257812,"liquidity":60.34,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T11:22:32.054084Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T11:22:01.789336Z","added_at":"2026-06-09T17:20:51.422269Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/july-2026-temperature-increase-c-20260608140824583/will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt15c-and-1pt19c-in-july-2026-20260608140825778","event_title":"July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)","chart_24h":[0.42,0.43,0.445,0.425,0.435,0.435,0.435,0.425,0.435,0.45,0.435,0.44,0.425,0.44,0.425,0.43,0.425,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.415,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2480296","event_id":"577009","slug":"will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt25c-and-1pt29c-in-july-2026-20260608140825780","question":"Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026?","group_item_title":"1.25–1.29ºC","description":"This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Jul\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.415,0.585],"probability":0.415,"spread":0.73,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-09T17:14:51.854695Z","end_date":"2026-08-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":62.14,"volume_24hr":62.14,"prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":62.14,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.1387152671813965,"normalized_volume":4.4078474044799805,"liquidity":49.41,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T11:22:32.054084Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T11:22:01.789336Z","added_at":"2026-06-09T17:20:51.422269Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/july-2026-temperature-increase-c-20260608140824583/will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt25c-and-1pt29c-in-july-2026-20260608140825780","event_title":"July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)","chart_24h":[0.42,0.415,0.585,0.425,0.425,0.415,0.425,0.42,0.425,0.425,0.44,0.445,0.44,0.43,0.435,0.435,0.435,0.425,0.4,0.415,0.39,0.415,0.4,0.41]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2480295","event_id":"577009","slug":"will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt20c-and-1pt24c-in-july-2026-20260608140825779","question":"Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026?","group_item_title":"1.20–1.24ºC","description":"This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Jul\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.41,0.59],"probability":0.41,"spread":0.7,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-09T17:14:52.141878Z","end_date":"2026-08-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":45.0,"volume_24hr":45.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":45.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.08956241607666,"normalized_volume":3.7600409984588623,"liquidity":61.0387,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T11:22:32.054084Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T11:22:01.789336Z","added_at":"2026-06-09T17:20:51.422269Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/july-2026-temperature-increase-c-20260608140824583/will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt20c-and-1pt24c-in-july-2026-20260608140825779","event_title":"July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)","chart_24h":[0.42,0.415,0.435,0.425,0.425,0.4,0.42,0.415,0.445,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.445,0.445,0.45,0.44,0.445,0.435,0.415,0.435,0.455,0.43]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2480293","event_id":"577009","slug":"will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt10c-and-1pt14c-in-july-2026-20260608140825777","question":"Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in July 2026?","group_item_title":"1.10–1.14ºC","description":"This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Jul\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.405,0.595],"probability":0.405,"spread":0.71,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-09T17:15:44.189014Z","end_date":"2026-08-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":49.13,"volume_24hr":49.13,"prob_24h_change":-0.014999999999999958,"volume_24h_change":49.13,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.366135120391846,"normalized_volume":3.9308125972747803,"liquidity":52.4,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T11:22:32.054084Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T11:22:01.789336Z","added_at":"2026-06-09T17:20:51.422269Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/july-2026-temperature-increase-c-20260608140824583/will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt10c-and-1pt14c-in-july-2026-20260608140825777","event_title":"July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)","chart_24h":[0.42,0.43,0.44,0.445,0.42,0.435,0.43,0.445,0.435,0.44,0.445,0.435,0.435,0.425,0.44,0.405,0.435,0.4,0.385,0.41,0.4,0.42]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2480297","event_id":"577009","slug":"will-global-temperature-increase-by-more-than-1pt29c-in-july-2026-20260608140825781","question":"Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in July 2026?","group_item_title":">1.29ºC","description":"This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Jul\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.405,0.595],"probability":0.405,"spread":0.71,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-09T17:14:58.749394Z","end_date":"2026-08-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":47.19,"volume_24hr":47.19,"prob_24h_change":-0.014999999999999958,"volume_24h_change":47.19,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.238412380218506,"normalized_volume":3.851949453353882,"liquidity":63.47,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T11:22:32.054084Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T11:22:01.789336Z","added_at":"2026-06-09T17:20:51.422269Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/july-2026-temperature-increase-c-20260608140824583/will-global-temperature-increase-by-more-than-1pt29c-in-july-2026-20260608140825781","event_title":"July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)","chart_24h":[0.42,0.415,0.415,0.415,0.41,0.415,0.42,0.415,0.42,0.435,0.425,0.445,0.44,0.44,0.435,0.445,0.435,0.43,0.415,0.42,0.41,0.415,0.42,0.395]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2480292","event_id":"577009","slug":"will-global-temperature-increase-by-less-than-1pt10c-in-july-2026-20260608140825776","question":"Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in July 2026?","group_item_title":"<1.10ºC","description":"This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Jul\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.385,0.615],"probability":0.385,"spread":0.67,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-09T17:14:33.528920Z","end_date":"2026-08-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":58.82,"volume_24hr":58.82,"prob_24h_change":-0.034999999999999976,"volume_24h_change":58.82,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.953890800476074,"normalized_volume":4.293726444244385,"liquidity":72.6636,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T11:22:32.054084Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T11:22:01.789336Z","added_at":"2026-06-09T17:20:51.422269Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/july-2026-temperature-increase-c-20260608140824583/will-global-temperature-increase-by-less-than-1pt10c-in-july-2026-20260608140825776","event_title":"July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)","chart_24h":[0.42,0.415,0.435,0.44,0.415,0.435,0.42,0.435,0.425,0.425,0.42,0.445,0.44,0.44,0.435,0.425,0.435,0.42,0.425,0.43,0.425,0.405,0.415,0.405,0.42]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/577009","as_of":"2026-06-10T11:30:00.080382Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)\" — top market at 42% probability across 6 outcomes","source_url":null}}