{"source":"polymarket","id":"61890","ticker":"will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-october-31","slug":"will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-october-31","title":"Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"major ground offensive\" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-october-31-MOKIcK-3c-fq.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-october-31-MOKIcK-3c-fq.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-19T19:13:45.872545Z","end_date":"2025-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":638094.9678829992,"volume_24hr":1646.5622700000001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.504119873046875,"normalized_volume":37.742576599121094,"liquidity":22138.31608,"open_interest":36504.812978,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"61","slug":"gaza","label":"Gaza"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.425,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.14999999999999997,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1425.285679,"updated_at":"2026-06-21T11:51:49.227296Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T11:51:49.227296Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-october-31","chart_24h":[169.864321,156.864321,156.864321,155.504321,129.504321,129.504321,201.484321,201.484321,201.484321,132.254321,1563.294321,1563.294321,1563.294321,1563.294321,1563.294321,1563.294321,1563.294321,1552.744321,1552.744321,1552.744321,1552.744321,1569.744321,1569.744321,1569.744321,1579.896591,1579.896591,1579.896591,1589.996591,1584.096591,1584.096591,1582.745241,1582.745241,1540.27227,1646.5622700000001],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"1642010","event_id":"61890","slug":"will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-december-31-828","question":"Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?","group_item_title":"December 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"major ground offensive\" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-october-31-hFPYVMlPMqeR.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-october-31-hFPYVMlPMqeR.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2025-11-13T23:10:39.568662Z","end_date":"2025-10-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-04-01T12:48:45Z","volume":325856.16743499925,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":44.66733932495117,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["World","Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-october-31/will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-march-31","event_title":"Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/61890","as_of":"2026-06-21T12:02:03.034553Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?\" — top market at 42% probability across 5 outcomes","source_url":null}}