{"source":"polymarket","id":"626860","ticker":"how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026-20260623190717369","slug":"how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026-20260623190717369","title":"How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.\n\nNote that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026-20260623190717369-4jkAPcKtJbqP.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026-20260623190717369-4jkAPcKtJbqP.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-23T19:43:58.372796Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4865.2133969999995,"volume_24hr":4865.213397,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":21.640033721923828,"normalized_volume":15.081350326538086,"liquidity":61362.42791,"open_interest":876.2144570000002,"categories":["Finance"],"tags":[{"id":"103274","slug":"rate","label":"Rate"},{"id":"100478","slug":"fomc","label":"fomc"},{"id":"103176","slug":"Global-Rates","label":"Global Rates"},{"id":"129","slug":"federal-reserve","label":"federal reserve"},{"id":"159","slug":"fed","label":"Fed"},{"id":"101550","slug":"jerome-powell","label":"Jerome Powell"},{"id":"104088","slug":"kevin-warsh","label":"Kevin Warsh"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"0 (0 bps)","top_outcome_probability":0.49,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.21999999999999997,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1300.68,"updated_at":"2026-06-25T17:55:50.032308Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-25T17:55:50.032308Z","added_at":"2026-06-23T21:52:48.663917Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026-20260623190717369","chart_24h":[0.0,221.19,221.19,221.19,221.19,221.19,221.19,221.19,221.19,221.19,221.19,221.19,221.19,221.19,221.19,221.19,221.19,221.19,221.19,221.19,221.19,221.19,221.19,221.19,221.19,221.19,221.19,796.8100000000001,796.8100000000001,836.41,836.41,3625.373397,3625.373397,4388.4633969999995,4851.883397,4865.213397,4865.213397,4865.213397,4865.213397],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2657588","event_id":"626860","slug":"will-no-fed-rate-hikes-happen-in-2026-20260623190852889","question":"Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?","group_item_title":"0 (0 bps)","description":"This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.\n\nNote that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.49,0.51],"probability":0.49,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-23T21:39:59.612972Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1300.6799999999998,"volume_24hr":1300.68,"prob_24h_change":0.21999999999999997,"volume_24h_change":1300.68,"normalized_vol_24hr":18.355693817138672,"normalized_volume":14.255670547485352,"liquidity":15401.3774,"categories":["Finance"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-25T17:41:09.706207Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-25T15:34:40.758139Z","added_at":"2026-06-23T21:52:48.681518Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026-20260623190717369/will-no-fed-rate-hikes-happen-in-2026-20260623190852889","event_title":"How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.27,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.325,0.34,0.34,0.345,0.35,0.365,0.26,0.255,0.255,0.315,0.325,0.24,0.245,0.245,0.25,0.235,0.225,0.115,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.31,0.405,0.405,0.485,0.49,0.49,0.49]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2657589","event_id":"626860","slug":"will-1-fed-rate-hike-happen-in-2026-20260623190852890","question":"Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?","group_item_title":"1 (25 bps)","description":"This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.\n\nNote that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.26,0.74],"probability":0.26,"spread":0.12,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-23T20:31:27.380632Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1272.308517,"volume_24hr":1272.308517,"prob_24h_change":-0.2,"volume_24h_change":1272.308517,"normalized_vol_24hr":18.24305534362793,"normalized_volume":14.168192863464355,"liquidity":7698.169,"categories":["Finance"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-25T17:41:09.706207Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-25T17:39:54.294553Z","added_at":"2026-06-23T21:52:48.681518Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026-20260623190717369/will-1-fed-rate-hike-happen-in-2026-20260623190852890","event_title":"How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.46,0.505,0.44,0.455,0.455,0.455,0.455,0.47,0.475,0.475,0.49,0.475,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.475,0.475,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.295,0.25,0.245,0.245,0.25]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2657590","event_id":"626860","slug":"will-2-fed-rate-hikes-happen-in-2026-20260623190852891","question":"Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?","group_item_title":"2 (50 bps)","description":"This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.\n\nNote that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.105,0.895],"probability":0.105,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-23T20:17:21.622831Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":534.607405,"volume_24hr":534.607405,"prob_24h_change":-0.31,"volume_24h_change":534.607405,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.091303825378418,"normalized_volume":10.94379711151123,"liquidity":8779.9753,"categories":["Finance"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-25T17:41:09.706207Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-25T13:49:13.483173Z","added_at":"2026-06-23T21:52:48.681518Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026-20260623190717369/will-2-fed-rate-hikes-happen-in-2026-20260623190852891","event_title":"How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.415,0.39,0.365,0.35,0.34,0.385,0.385,0.41,0.38,0.405,0.39,0.39,0.395,0.405,0.365,0.265,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.32,0.33,0.23,0.225,0.225,0.21,0.205,0.205,0.13,0.105,0.105,0.105,0.105,0.105]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2657591","event_id":"626860","slug":"will-3-fed-rate-hikes-happen-in-2026-20260623190852892","question":"Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?","group_item_title":"3 (75 bps)","description":"This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.\n\nNote that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0415,0.9585],"probability":0.0415,"spread":0.023,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-23T19:43:58.372796Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":546.0353250000001,"volume_24hr":546.035325,"prob_24h_change":-0.1185,"volume_24h_change":546.035325,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.186155319213867,"normalized_volume":11.017461776733398,"liquidity":11039.37696,"categories":["Finance"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-25T17:56:40.929390Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-25T17:55:50.262285Z","added_at":"2026-06-23T21:52:48.681518Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026-20260623190717369/will-3-fed-rate-hikes-happen-in-2026-20260623190852892","event_title":"How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.16,0.17,0.16,0.165,0.165,0.165,0.165,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.165,0.165,0.165,0.165,0.165,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.165,0.15,0.14,0.045,0.041,0.036,0.034,0.042,0.039,0.0355,0.031]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2657592","event_id":"626860","slug":"will-4-fed-rate-hikes-happen-in-2026-20260623190852893","question":"Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?","group_item_title":"4 (100 bps)","description":"This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.\n\nNote that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.023,0.977],"probability":0.023,"spread":0.042,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-23T20:07:28.909885Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":673.44265,"volume_24hr":673.44265,"prob_24h_change":-0.027000000000000003,"volume_24h_change":508.87264999999996,"normalized_vol_24hr":15.144046783447266,"normalized_volume":11.761394500732422,"liquidity":7612.67924,"categories":["Finance"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-25T17:56:40.929390Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-25T17:55:50.262285Z","added_at":"2026-06-23T21:52:48.681518Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026-20260623190717369/will-4-fed-rate-hikes-happen-in-2026-20260623190852893","event_title":"How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.05,0.045,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.045,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.028,0.0275,0.019,0.015,0.019,0.024,0.0185,0.014]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2657593","event_id":"626860","slug":"will-5-or-more-fed-rate-hikes-happen-in-2026-20260623190852894","question":"Will 5 or more Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?","group_item_title":"5+ (125+ bps)","description":"This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.\n\nNote that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.016,0.984],"probability":0.016,"spread":0.028,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-23T20:29:42.889594Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":538.1395,"volume_24hr":538.1395,"prob_24h_change":-0.089,"volume_24h_change":538.1395,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.120800018310547,"normalized_volume":10.966705322265625,"liquidity":7765.91765,"categories":["Finance"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-25T16:38:28.378879Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-25T16:37:32.648988Z","added_at":"2026-06-23T21:52:48.681518Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026-20260623190717369/will-5-or-more-fed-rate-hikes-happen-in-2026-20260623190852894","event_title":"How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.105,0.04,0.0395,0.04,0.04,0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0395,0.0385,0.0385,0.0385,0.0385,0.0385,0.0385,0.011,0.025,0.0245,0.019,0.0125,0.016,0.0135,0.013,0.019,0.016]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/626860","as_of":"2026-06-25T17:57:03.172966Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?\" — top market at 49% probability across 6 outcomes","source_url":null}}