{"source":"polymarket","id":"630670","ticker":"next-claude-sonnet-released-byptptpt-20260624195227239","slug":"next-claude-sonnet-released-byptptpt-20260624195227239","title":"Next Claude Sonnet released by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nClaude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 4.7, Claude Sonnet 5.0, Sonnet 5, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-24T20:09:48.332456Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5381.6164149999995,"volume_24hr":5381.616415,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":22.215463638305664,"normalized_volume":15.447463989257812,"liquidity":9207.40738,"open_interest":2525.671646,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"103303","slug":"claude","label":"Claude"},{"id":"103648","slug":"claude-5","label":"Claude 5"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"105474","slug":"sonnet","label":"Sonnet"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"553","slug":"anthropic","label":"anthropic"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"July 31","top_outcome_probability":0.8765,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.38149999999999995,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2020.33714,"updated_at":"2026-06-25T10:56:46.486284Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-25T10:56:46.486284Z","added_at":"2026-06-24T20:16:44.397333Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-sonnet-released-byptptpt-20260624195227239","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,5.681816,5.681816,5.681816,5.681816,5.681816,5.681816,5.681816,5.681816,5.681816,5.681816,5.681816,5.681816,448.4335,517.8735,860.8434999999998,880.8434999999998,930.8434999999998,3415.511415,3481.111415,5035.091415,5082.591415,5179.966415],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2672691","event_id":"630670","slug":"will-the-next-claude-sonnet-model-be-released-by-july-31-2026-20260624195228149","question":"Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"July 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nClaude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 4.7, Claude Sonnet 5.0, Sonnet 5, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.8765,0.1235],"probability":0.8765,"spread":0.127,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-24T20:10:08.327294Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2020.33714,"volume_24hr":2020.33714,"prob_24h_change":0.38149999999999995,"volume_24h_change":2020.33714,"normalized_vol_24hr":20.677770614624023,"normalized_volume":16.0590763092041,"liquidity":3386.86172,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-25T10:57:36.174231Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-25T10:56:46.555933Z","added_at":"2026-06-24T20:16:44.448956Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-sonnet-released-byptptpt-20260624195227239/will-the-next-claude-sonnet-model-be-released-by-july-31-2026-20260624195228149","event_title":"Next Claude Sonnet released by...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.495,0.495,0.485,0.475,0.495,0.435,0.495,0.495,0.52,0.73,0.9,0.84,0.905,0.905,0.965,0.966]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2672690","event_id":"630670","slug":"will-the-next-claude-sonnet-model-be-released-by-july-17-2026-20260624195228148","question":"Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?","group_item_title":"July 17","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nClaude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 4.7, Claude Sonnet 5.0, Sonnet 5, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.865,0.135],"probability":0.865,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-24T20:10:01.402360Z","end_date":"2026-07-17T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":356.04269200000005,"volume_24hr":356.042692,"prob_24h_change":0.375,"volume_24h_change":356.042692,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.331029891967773,"normalized_volume":9.576706886291504,"liquidity":2051.8918,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-25T10:42:23.200849Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-25T10:41:56.840631Z","added_at":"2026-06-24T20:16:44.448956Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-sonnet-released-byptptpt-20260624195227239/will-the-next-claude-sonnet-model-be-released-by-july-17-2026-20260624195228148","event_title":"Next Claude Sonnet released by...?","chart_24h":[0.49,0.5,0.49,0.5,0.505,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.535,0.535,0.615,0.655,0.83,0.86,0.86,0.865]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2672689","event_id":"630670","slug":"will-the-next-claude-sonnet-model-be-released-by-june-30-2026-20260624195228147","question":"Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"June 30","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nClaude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 4.7, Claude Sonnet 5.0, Sonnet 5, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.78,0.22],"probability":0.78,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-24T20:09:48.332456Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3005.2365829999994,"volume_24hr":3005.2365830000003,"prob_24h_change":0.29500000000000004,"volume_24h_change":3005.2365830000003,"normalized_vol_24hr":22.890636444091797,"normalized_volume":17.777666091918945,"liquidity":3453.7825,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-25T10:42:54.213216Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-25T10:41:56.840631Z","added_at":"2026-06-24T20:16:44.448956Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-sonnet-released-byptptpt-20260624195227239/will-the-next-claude-sonnet-model-be-released-by-june-30-2026-20260624195228147","event_title":"Next Claude Sonnet released by...?","chart_24h":[0.485,0.485,0.455,0.46,0.455,0.485,0.48,0.49,0.495,0.495,0.8,0.83,0.785,0.78,0.78]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/630670","as_of":"2026-06-25T11:10:58.877970Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Next Claude Sonnet released by...?\" — top market at 78% probability across 3 outcomes","source_url":null}}