{"source":"polymarket","id":"634799","ticker":"iran-successfully-targets-shipping-byptptpt-20260625215134143","slug":"iran-successfully-targets-shipping-byptptpt-20260625215134143","title":"Iran successfully targets shipping by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-successfully-targets-shipping-on-march-31-cExO-2_n_AdO.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-successfully-targets-shipping-on-march-31-cExO-2_n_AdO.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-25T23:22:09.300577Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":30934.713174,"volume_24hr":30934.713173999997,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":33.15941619873047,"normalized_volume":22.34139060974121,"liquidity":19450.5569,"open_interest":3670.4173659999997,"categories":["World"],"tags":[{"id":"105491","slug":"seize","label":"seize"},{"id":"69","slug":"strike","label":"strike"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"104039","slug":"trump-iran","label":"U.S. x Iran"},{"id":"104010","slug":"diplomacy-ceasefire","label":"Iran Ceasefire"},{"id":"103208","slug":"ship","label":"ship"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"July 31","top_outcome_probability":0.505,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-26T06:43:40.205910Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-26T06:43:40.205910Z","added_at":"2026-06-25T23:24:13.754500Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-successfully-targets-shipping-byptptpt-20260625215134143","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,120.66,306.752618,691.972618,3046.832618,7388.892618,20642.568932000002,20682.568932000002,26192.349484000002,30523.37722],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2686750","event_id":"634799","slug":"iran-successfully-targets-shipping-by-july-31-20260625215135372","question":"Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31?","group_item_title":"August 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.505,0.495],"probability":0.505,"spread":0.67,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-25T23:22:15.354602Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":206.852618,"volume_24hr":206.852618,"prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":206.852618,"normalized_vol_24hr":9.516173362731934,"normalized_volume":7.894871234893799,"liquidity":1084.484,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-26T02:43:45.924603Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-26T02:43:01.346138Z","added_at":"2026-06-25T23:24:13.765149Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-successfully-targets-shipping-byptptpt-20260625215134143/iran-successfully-targets-shipping-by-july-31-20260625215135372","event_title":"Iran successfully targets shipping by...?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.515,0.5,0.56,0.51,0.505]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2686747","event_id":"634799","slug":"iran-successfully-targets-shipping-by-july-7-20260625215135370","question":"Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?","group_item_title":"July 7","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.4,0.6],"probability":0.4,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-25T23:22:17.415524Z","end_date":"2026-07-07T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1561.957881,"volume_24hr":1561.9578810000005,"prob_24h_change":-0.09999999999999998,"volume_24h_change":1561.9578810000005,"normalized_vol_24hr":18.071016311645508,"normalized_volume":14.992197036743164,"liquidity":1307.9869,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-26T06:28:27.287081Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-26T06:27:17.339672Z","added_at":"2026-06-25T23:24:13.765149Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-successfully-targets-shipping-byptptpt-20260625215134143/iran-successfully-targets-shipping-by-july-7-20260625215135370","event_title":"Iran successfully targets shipping by...?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.4,0.265,0.28,0.28,0.4,0.4]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2686746","event_id":"634799","slug":"iran-successfully-targets-shipping-by-june-30-20260625215135369","question":"Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30?","group_item_title":"June 30","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.235,0.765],"probability":0.235,"spread":0.05,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-25T23:22:09.300577Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7057.681757,"volume_24hr":7057.681757,"prob_24h_change":-0.265,"volume_24h_change":7057.681757,"normalized_vol_24hr":26.23980140686035,"normalized_volume":21.76923942565918,"liquidity":3092.6338,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-26T06:44:14.824209Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-26T06:43:40.254814Z","added_at":"2026-06-25T23:24:13.765149Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-successfully-targets-shipping-byptptpt-20260625215134143/iran-successfully-targets-shipping-by-june-30-20260625215135369","event_title":"Iran successfully targets shipping by...?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.5,0.495,0.505,0.92,0.205,0.145,0.15,0.185,0.18,0.25,0.23]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2686745","event_id":"634799","slug":"iran-successfully-targets-shipping-by-june-27-20260625215135368","question":"Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?","group_item_title":"June 27","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.115,0.885],"probability":0.115,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-25T23:22:11.353230Z","end_date":"2026-06-27T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":22200.150918,"volume_24hr":22200.150918,"prob_24h_change":-0.385,"volume_24h_change":22200.150918,"normalized_vol_24hr":33.46428680419922,"normalized_volume":27.76286506652832,"liquidity":11362.9944,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-26T06:44:14.824209Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-26T06:43:40.254814Z","added_at":"2026-06-25T23:24:13.765149Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-successfully-targets-shipping-byptptpt-20260625215134143/iran-successfully-targets-shipping-by-june-27-20260625215135368","event_title":"Iran successfully targets shipping by...?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.5,0.495,0.5,0.07,0.07,0.085,0.095,0.11,0.105,0.175,0.12]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2686749","event_id":"634799","slug":"iran-successfully-targets-shipping-by-july-14-20260625215135371","question":"Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?","group_item_title":"July 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.505,0.495],"probability":0.505,"spread":0.79,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-25T23:22:14.399324Z","end_date":"2026-07-14T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":453.2524,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-26T02:58:29.665580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-26T02:58:20.473054Z","added_at":"2026-06-25T23:24:13.765149Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-successfully-targets-shipping-byptptpt-20260625215134143/iran-successfully-targets-shipping-by-july-14-20260625215135371","event_title":"Iran successfully targets shipping by...?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.5,0.51,0.495,0.505]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2686748","event_id":"634799","slug":"iran-successfully-targets-shipping-by-july-15-20260625225958880","question":"Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?","group_item_title":"July 15","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.455,0.545],"probability":0.455,"spread":0.73,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-25T23:22:12.140009Z","end_date":"2026-07-15T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.044999999999999984,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":179.096,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-26T05:08:36.290594Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-26T05:08:21.764802Z","added_at":"2026-06-25T23:24:13.765149Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-successfully-targets-shipping-byptptpt-20260625215134143/iran-successfully-targets-shipping-by-july-15-20260625225958880","event_title":"Iran successfully targets shipping by...?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.495,0.505,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.495,0.485,0.455]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/634799","as_of":"2026-06-26T06:48:44.936792Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Iran successfully targets shipping by...?\" — top market at 12% probability across 6 outcomes","source_url":null}}