{"source":"polymarket","id":"652087","ticker":"what-will-trump-do-on-the-4th-of-july-20260629184051836","slug":"what-will-trump-do-on-the-4th-of-july-20260629184051836","title":"What will Trump do on the 4th of July?","description":"Rules","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-trump-do-on-the-4th-of-july-20260629184051836-bWgFXwpQl2ql.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-trump-do-on-the-4th-of-july-20260629184051836-bWgFXwpQl2ql.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-30T17:13:30.985858Z","end_date":"2026-07-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":534.646428,"volume_24hr":534.646428,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.800643920898438,"normalized_volume":8.155128479003906,"liquidity":17231.3279,"open_interest":369.41,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"102357","slug":"july-4","label":"July 4"},{"id":"105521","slug":"4th-of-july","label":"4th of July"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Insult Someone","top_outcome_probability":0.885,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.425,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":173.52,"updated_at":"2026-07-01T06:55:17.310525Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-01T06:55:17.310525Z","added_at":"2026-06-30T17:21:06.527049Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-do-on-the-4th-of-july-20260629184051836","chart_24h":[0.0,41.71,251.37,281.32370199999997,281.32370199999997,281.32370199999997,281.32370199999997,318.39370199999996,352.683702,352.683702,421.433702,421.433702,421.433702,421.433702,421.433702,421.433702,426.433702,426.433702,426.433702,426.433702,470.123702,470.123702,490.123702,490.123702,532.373702],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2745511","event_id":"652087","slug":"untitled-market-1-20260629183534861","question":"Will Trump insult someone on July 4?","group_item_title":"Insult Someone","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on July 4 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.\n\nA direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. ","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.885,0.115],"probability":0.885,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-30T17:13:32.212313Z","end_date":"2026-07-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":173.51999999999998,"volume_24hr":173.52,"prob_24h_change":0.425,"volume_24h_change":173.52,"normalized_vol_24hr":9.417410850524902,"normalized_volume":7.724792003631592,"liquidity":977.6556,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-01T04:56:41.619521Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-01T04:56:23.421701Z","added_at":"2026-06-30T17:21:06.546446Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-do-on-the-4th-of-july-20260629184051836/untitled-market-1-20260629183534861","event_title":"What will Trump do on the 4th of July?","chart_24h":[0.46,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.855,0.87,0.87,0.885]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2745518","event_id":"652087","slug":"will-trump-wear-a-red-tie-on-july-4-20260629184051844","question":"Will Trump wear a red tie on July 4?","group_item_title":"Wear a Red Tie","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump wears a red tie on July 4 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve based on photo or video of Donald Trump’s actions on July 4 which are made publicly available by July 5, 12:00 PM ET. Reporting without photos or videos will not be considered. Publication of photos or videos of Donald Trump taken prior to or after July 4 will not be considered.\n\nFor the tie to be considered predominantly blue or red, its primary color must be a shade of blue or red, though it may feature other colors as part of a pattern. \n\nThis tie would count as \"Blue\": \nhttps://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-blue-5ywRT5OXfn-5.jpg\n\nThis tie would count as \"Red\": \nhttps://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-red-a7ObxtpGQcrR.jpg\n\nThe following tie has no distinguishable predominant color, and thus would resolve to \"Other\": \nhttps://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-other-Q8aIgOP7wFs1.jpg\n\nIf Donald Trump does not have any public appearance on the specified date or does not wear a tie, the market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.66,0.34],"probability":0.66,"spread":0.18,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-30T17:13:34.002231Z","end_date":"2026-07-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":144.646428,"volume_24hr":144.646428,"prob_24h_change":0.2,"volume_24h_change":144.646428,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.769073486328125,"normalized_volume":7.192982196807861,"liquidity":562.8718,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-01T06:55:58.913524Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-01T06:55:17.361177Z","added_at":"2026-06-30T17:21:06.546446Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-do-on-the-4th-of-july-20260629184051836/will-trump-wear-a-red-tie-on-july-4-20260629184051844","event_title":"What will Trump do on the 4th of July?","chart_24h":[0.46,0.465,0.42,0.745,0.415,0.41,0.455,0.525,0.455,0.465,0.565,0.605,0.655]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2745512","event_id":"652087","slug":"will-trump-post-on-truth-social-20-times-on-july-4-20260629184051838","question":"Will Trump post on Truth Social 20+ times on July 4?","group_item_title":"Post on Truth Social 20+ Times","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts 20 or more times on Truth Social between July 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET and July 4, 2026 11:59 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the \"Post Counter\" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.62,0.38],"probability":0.62,"spread":0.2,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-30T17:13:30.985858Z","end_date":"2026-07-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":34.29,"volume_24hr":34.29,"prob_24h_change":0.15999999999999998,"volume_24h_change":34.29,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.488142967224121,"normalized_volume":3.68147611618042,"liquidity":149.8101,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-01T06:40:35.437680Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-01T06:40:08.941942Z","added_at":"2026-06-30T17:21:06.546446Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-do-on-the-4th-of-july-20260629184051836/will-trump-post-on-truth-social-20-times-on-july-4-20260629184051838","event_title":"What will Trump do on the 4th of July?","chart_24h":[0.46,0.465,0.48,0.465,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.425,0.395,0.39,0.445,0.425,0.425,0.395,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.62]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2745514","event_id":"652087","slug":"will-trump-praise-allah-on-july-4-20260629184051840","question":"Will Trump praise Allah on July 4?","group_item_title":"Praise Allah","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump publicly praises Allah on July 4 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying statement includes any remark by Donald Trump that expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence for the Islamic deity referred to as Allah. This can include direct praise (e.g., “Praise be to Allah”) or equivalent positive descriptions (“Allah is great”).\n\nGeneral neutrality or polite diplomatic language (e.g., “Yes, I posted about Allah”) will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded usage will qualify.\n\nText or speech contained in images, memes, or videos posted by Trump on his official social media accounts will qualify if it clearly expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence toward Allah, provided that any additional posted commentary from Trump does not explicitly contradict that sentiment. Media contained only within reposts or posts quoted by Trump will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.05,0.95],"probability":0.05,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-30T17:13:48.878167Z","end_date":"2026-07-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":182.19,"volume_24hr":182.19,"prob_24h_change":-0.405,"volume_24h_change":182.19,"normalized_vol_24hr":9.595148086547852,"normalized_volume":7.870584011077881,"liquidity":7548.5363,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-01T06:25:58.590856Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-01T06:24:59.329695Z","added_at":"2026-06-30T17:21:06.546446Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-do-on-the-4th-of-july-20260629184051836/will-trump-praise-allah-on-july-4-20260629184051840","event_title":"What will Trump do on the 4th of July?","chart_24h":[0.455,0.085,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.045,0.045,0.05]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2745517","event_id":"652087","slug":"will-trump-hug-someone-on-july-4-20260629184051843","question":"Will Trump hug someone on July 4?","group_item_title":"Hug Someone","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump hugs any person on July 4 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nVideo or photographic evidence of the hug must be released by July 5, 12:00 PM ET to qualify. \n\nA qualifying hug is defined as an in-person greeting or gesture involving the two individuals wrapping at least one arm around the other individual's shoulders or back while facing each other in a manner consistent with a hug.\n\nGestures where only one individual places an arm around the other, or where both individuals place arms around each other while standing side by side and not facing each other, will not qualify as a hug. Brief incidental contact, such as a pat on the back or shoulder without arm-wrapping from both parties, will similarly not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be based on photographic/video footage.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.58,0.42],"probability":0.58,"spread":0.32,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-30T17:13:41.169310Z","end_date":"2026-07-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.12999999999999995,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":185.1949,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-01T06:40:35.437680Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-01T06:40:08.941942Z","added_at":"2026-06-30T17:21:06.546446Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-do-on-the-4th-of-july-20260629184051836/will-trump-hug-someone-on-july-4-20260629184051843","event_title":"What will Trump do on the 4th of July?","chart_24h":[0.45,0.445,0.45,0.445,0.38,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.39,0.405,0.54,0.58]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2745516","event_id":"652087","slug":"will-trump-sign-an-executive-order-on-july-4-20260629184051842","question":"Will Trump sign an executive order on July 4?","group_item_title":"Sign an Executive Order","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump signs an executive order on July 4 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly formal executive orders will qualify; other executive actions will not qualify.\n\nThis market will immediately resolve \"Yes\" if the text of an executive order for the given day is published on the White House page for presidential actions (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/) or the White House press pool. Mere announcements will not qualify.\n\nIf no executive order is published by 12:00 PM ET on July 5 this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIn the case of ambiguity this market may remain open until it is confirmed by the federal register.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.46,0.54],"probability":0.46,"spread":0.82,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-30T17:13:38.307291Z","end_date":"2026-07-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":77.1754,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-01T03:33:06.594451Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-01T03:32:48.669019Z","added_at":"2026-06-30T17:21:06.546446Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-do-on-the-4th-of-july-20260629184051836/will-trump-sign-an-executive-order-on-july-4-20260629184051842","event_title":"What will Trump do on the 4th of July?","chart_24h":[0.46,0.465,0.46,0.465,0.46,0.43,0.465,0.46]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2745519","event_id":"652087","slug":"will-trump-wear-a-blue-tie-on-july-4-20260629184051845","question":"Will Trump wear a blue tie on July 4?","group_item_title":"Wear a Blue Tie","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump wears a blue tie on July 4 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve based on photo or video of Donald Trump’s actions on July 4 which are made publicly available by July 5, 12:00 PM ET. Reporting without photos or videos will not be considered. Publication of photos or videos of Donald Trump taken prior to or after July 4 will not be considered.\n\nFor the tie to be considered predominantly blue or red, its primary color must be a shade of blue or red, though it may feature other colors as part of a pattern. \n\nThis tie would count as \"Blue\": \nhttps://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-blue-5ywRT5OXfn-5.jpg\n\nThis tie would count as \"Red\": \nhttps://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-red-a7ObxtpGQcrR.jpg\n\nThe following tie has no distinguishable predominant color, and thus would resolve to \"Other\": \nhttps://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-other-Q8aIgOP7wFs1.jpg\n\nIf Donald Trump does not have any public appearance on the specified date or does not wear a tie, the market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.305,0.695],"probability":0.305,"spread":0.35,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-30T17:13:35.326004Z","end_date":"2026-07-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.175,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":127.08,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-01T04:18:27.191436Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-01T04:18:05.548286Z","added_at":"2026-06-30T17:21:06.546446Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-do-on-the-4th-of-july-20260629184051836/will-trump-wear-a-blue-tie-on-july-4-20260629184051845","event_title":"What will Trump do on the 4th of July?","chart_24h":[0.48,0.48,0.5,0.475,0.51,0.495,0.53,0.535,0.525,0.54,0.535,0.305,0.305]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2745513","event_id":"652087","slug":"will-trump-wear-a-maga-hat-on-july-4-20260629184051839","question":"Will Trump wear a MAGA hat on July 4?","group_item_title":"Wear a MAGA Hat","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump wears a MAGA hat on July 4, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA MAGA hat refers to a hat which either says “Make America Great Again”, or “MAGA” on the hat. Other hats will not be considered, regardless of whether they are red.\n\nThis market will resolve based on photo or video of Donald Trump’s actions on July 4 which are made publicly available by July 5, 12:00 PM ET. Reporting without photos or videos will not be considered. Publication of photos or videos of Donald Trump taken prior to or after July 4 will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.255,0.745],"probability":0.255,"spread":0.47,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-30T17:13:37.566341Z","end_date":"2026-07-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.195,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":118.2667,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-01T06:40:35.437680Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-01T06:40:08.941942Z","added_at":"2026-06-30T17:21:06.546446Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-do-on-the-4th-of-july-20260629184051836/will-trump-wear-a-maga-hat-on-july-4-20260629184051839","event_title":"What will Trump do on the 4th of July?","chart_24h":[0.45,0.445,0.405,0.42,0.405,0.415,0.635,0.41,0.42,0.425,0.41,0.405,0.255]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2745515","event_id":"652087","slug":"will-trump-kiss-someone-on-july-4-20260629184051841","question":"Will Trump kiss someone on July 4?","group_item_title":"Kiss Someone","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump kisses any other person on July 4 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying kiss is defined as an in-person greeting or gesture involving Donald Trump’s lips touching another individual. A qualifying kiss need not be reciprocal; a kiss on the cheek or hand from Donald Trump will qualify. Donald Trump receiving a kiss will not qualify.\n\nReputable video or photographic evidence of the kiss must be released by July 5, 12:00 PM ET to qualify. AI-generated, manipulated, or other non-authentic evidence will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be reputable photographic/video footage of a kiss.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.115,0.885],"probability":0.115,"spread":0.05,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-30T17:13:37.303488Z","end_date":"2026-07-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.385,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":7537.4013,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-01T06:40:08.941942Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-01T06:40:08.941942Z","added_at":"2026-06-30T17:21:06.546446Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-do-on-the-4th-of-july-20260629184051836/will-trump-kiss-someone-on-july-4-20260629184051841","event_title":"What will Trump do on the 4th of July?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/652087","as_of":"2026-07-01T07:08:50.195736Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"What will Trump do on the 4th of July?\" — top market at 5% probability across 9 outcomes","source_url":null}}