{"source":"polymarket","id":"653387","ticker":"peoples-bank-of-china-rate-change-by-september-30-20260630000252021","slug":"peoples-bank-of-china-rate-change-by-september-30-20260630000252021","title":"People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?","description":"This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).\n\nAn “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.\n\nA “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.\n\nIf the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.\n\nAn official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/peoples-bank-of-china-rate-cut-by-march-31-F6rPEdLXG8_A.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/peoples-bank-of-china-rate-cut-by-march-31-F6rPEdLXG8_A.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-01T01:54:24.079641Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4466.28,"volume_24hr":4466.28,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":21.30997085571289,"normalized_volume":14.58389663696289,"liquidity":10092.82518,"open_interest":299.18722,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":[{"id":"103176","slug":"Global-Rates","label":"Global Rates"},{"id":"102000","slug":"macro-indicators","label":"Macro Indicators"},{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"132","slug":"monetary-policy","label":"monetary policy"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"No Change","top_outcome_probability":0.83,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.5549999999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2918.48,"updated_at":"2026-07-01T12:55:57.962904Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-01T12:55:57.962904Z","added_at":"2026-07-01T02:16:36.219363Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/peoples-bank-of-china-rate-change-by-september-30-20260630000252021","chart_24h":[0.0,61.76,61.76,61.76,61.76,61.76,61.76,61.76,121.76,261.76,302.76,302.76,302.76,302.76,3649.11,4426.28,4446.28,4446.28,4466.28,4466.28],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2750219","event_id":"653387","slug":"will-the-peoples-bank-of-china-not-change-rates-by-september-30-20260630000252023","question":"Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?","group_item_title":"No Change","description":"This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).\n\nAn “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.\n\nA “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.\n\nIf the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.\n\nAn official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/peoples-bank-of-china-rate-cut-by-march-31-F6rPEdLXG8_A.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/peoples-bank-of-china-rate-cut-by-march-31-F6rPEdLXG8_A.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.83,0.17],"probability":0.83,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-01T01:54:28.788367Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2918.4799999999996,"volume_24hr":2918.48,"prob_24h_change":0.5549999999999999,"volume_24h_change":2918.48,"normalized_vol_24hr":22.50107765197754,"normalized_volume":18.448198318481445,"liquidity":5889.3151,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["China"],"updated_at":"2026-07-01T11:56:57.308000Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-01T11:56:21.675631Z","added_at":"2026-07-01T02:16:36.236710Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/peoples-bank-of-china-rate-change-by-september-30-20260630000252021/will-the-peoples-bank-of-china-not-change-rates-by-september-30-20260630000252023","event_title":"People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?","chart_24h":[0.275,0.74,0.735,0.895,0.895,0.905,0.865,0.83,0.83,0.83,0.83]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2750220","event_id":"653387","slug":"will-the-peoples-bank-of-china-decrease-rates-by-september-30-20260630000252024","question":"Will the People’s Bank of China decrease rates by September 30?","group_item_title":"Decrease","description":"This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).\n\nAn “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.\n\nA “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.\n\nIf the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.\n\nAn official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/peoples-bank-of-china-rate-cut-by-march-31-F6rPEdLXG8_A.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/peoples-bank-of-china-rate-cut-by-march-31-F6rPEdLXG8_A.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.1,0.9],"probability":0.1,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-01T01:54:31.758024Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1350.9600000000005,"volume_24hr":1350.96,"prob_24h_change":-0.4,"volume_24h_change":1350.96,"normalized_vol_24hr":18.368614196777344,"normalized_volume":15.060070037841797,"liquidity":5179.7339,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["China"],"updated_at":"2026-07-01T12:11:43.959022Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-01T12:11:26.733618Z","added_at":"2026-07-01T02:16:36.236710Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/peoples-bank-of-china-rate-change-by-september-30-20260630000252021/will-the-peoples-bank-of-china-decrease-rates-by-september-30-20260630000252024","event_title":"People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.255,0.275,0.26,0.065,0.065,0.07,0.15,0.1,0.095,0.1,0.1]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2750218","event_id":"653387","slug":"will-the-peoples-bank-of-china-increase-rates-by-september-30-20260630000252022","question":"Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates by September 30?","group_item_title":"Increase","description":"This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).\n\nAn “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.\n\nA “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.\n\nIf the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.\n\nAn official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/peoples-bank-of-china-rate-cut-by-march-31-F6rPEdLXG8_A.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/peoples-bank-of-china-rate-cut-by-march-31-F6rPEdLXG8_A.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0145,0.9855],"probability":0.0145,"spread":0.021,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-01T01:54:24.079641Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":196.84,"volume_24hr":196.84,"prob_24h_change":-0.4855,"volume_24h_change":196.84,"normalized_vol_24hr":9.880589485168457,"normalized_volume":8.100903511047363,"liquidity":1013.50755,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["China"],"updated_at":"2026-07-01T12:56:16.581960Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-01T12:55:57.978235Z","added_at":"2026-07-01T02:16:36.236710Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/peoples-bank-of-china-rate-change-by-september-30-20260630000252021/will-the-peoples-bank-of-china-increase-rates-by-september-30-20260630000252022","event_title":"People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.255,0.245,0.07,0.045,0.035,0.0355,0.031,0.0355,0.1305,0.019,0.029,0.0365,0.047,0.0145]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/653387","as_of":"2026-07-01T13:02:45.233051Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?\" — top market at 83% probability across 3 outcomes","source_url":null}}