{"source":"polymarket","id":"656719","ticker":"next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260701204710232","slug":"next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260701204710232","title":"Next Claude Opus released by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/claude-4pt7-released-by-LSHFPBEUsncm.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-01T22:49:02.643256Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2770.393996,"volume_24hr":2770.393996,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":19.371944427490234,"normalized_volume":12.937766075134277,"liquidity":10882.8943,"open_interest":1041.443995,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"105531","slug":"opus","label":"Opus"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"103303","slug":"claude","label":"Claude"},{"id":"553","slug":"anthropic","label":"anthropic"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.93,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.43000000000000005,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-02T20:08:31.822126Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-02T20:08:31.822126Z","added_at":"2026-07-01T22:53:18.193381Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260701204710232","chart_24h":[0.0,16.66,16.66,56.748234,96.828234,106.488718,106.488718,106.488718,204.488718,224.488718,224.488718,491.388718,1211.638718,1747.888718,1847.888718,1888.091246,1908.091246,1966.811246,1966.811246,1966.811246,1966.811246,2135.811246,2399.941246,2462.881246,2714.143996,2727.143996,2727.143996,2727.143996,2750.393996,2750.393996,2770.393996,2770.393996,2770.393996,2770.393996,2770.393996,2770.393996,2770.393996],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2761628","event_id":"656719","slug":"will-the-next-claude-opus-model-be-released-by-october-31-2026-20260701204710234","question":"Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.925,0.075],"probability":0.925,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-01T22:49:09.739577Z","end_date":"2026-10-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":664.296034,"volume_24hr":664.296034,"prob_24h_change":0.42500000000000004,"volume_24h_change":664.296034,"normalized_vol_24hr":13.903618812561035,"normalized_volume":12.16758918762207,"liquidity":4637.3081,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-02T16:43:23.465727Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-02T16:42:37.394596Z","added_at":"2026-07-01T22:53:18.222727Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260701204710232/will-the-next-claude-opus-model-be-released-by-october-31-2026-20260701204710234","event_title":"Next Claude Opus released by...?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.595,0.3,0.62,0.705,0.73,0.745,0.755,0.79,0.885,0.91,0.91,0.925,0.925,0.925,0.925,0.925,0.93,0.925,0.925]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2761627","event_id":"656719","slug":"will-the-next-claude-opus-model-be-released-by-august-31-2026-20260701204710233","question":"Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.655,0.345],"probability":0.655,"spread":0.17,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-01T22:49:06.474102Z","end_date":"2026-08-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2106.097962,"volume_24hr":2106.097962,"prob_24h_change":0.15500000000000003,"volume_24h_change":2106.097962,"normalized_vol_24hr":19.27263641357422,"normalized_volume":16.866222381591797,"liquidity":2849.9587,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-02T19:53:47.109553Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-02T19:53:17.389226Z","added_at":"2026-07-01T22:53:18.222727Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260701204710232/will-the-next-claude-opus-model-be-released-by-august-31-2026-20260701204710233","event_title":"Next Claude Opus released by...?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.595,0.59,0.545,0.565,0.645,0.66,0.775,0.77,0.685,0.74,0.74,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.745,0.62,0.74,0.665,0.66,0.64,0.655]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2761629","event_id":"656719","slug":"will-the-next-claude-opus-model-be-released-by-december-31-2026-20260701204710235","question":"Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"December 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.93,0.07],"probability":0.93,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-01T22:49:02.643256Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.43000000000000005,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":1213.9929,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-02T04:19:11.820652Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-02T04:19:02.239104Z","added_at":"2026-07-01T22:53:18.222727Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260701204710232/will-the-next-claude-opus-model-be-released-by-december-31-2026-20260701204710235","event_title":"Next Claude Opus released by...?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.5,0.505,0.545,0.79,0.93]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/656719","as_of":"2026-07-02T20:13:07.266167Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Next Claude Opus released by...?\" — top market at 66% probability across 3 outcomes","source_url":null}}