{"source":"polymarket","id":"659147","ticker":"bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-4-2026","slug":"bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-4-2026","title":"Bitcoin Up or Down on July 4?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Up\" if the \"Close\" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final \"Close\" price for the Jul 4 '26 12:00 ET candle.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Down\" if the \"Close\" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final \"Close\" price for the Jul 4 '26 12:00 ET candle.\n\nIf the final \"Close\" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT \"Close\" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with \"1m\" and \"Candles\" selected on the top bar.\n\nPlease note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BTC+fullsize.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BTC+fullsize.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-02T16:00:19Z","end_date":"2026-07-04T16:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":41826.59047700002,"volume_24hr":41826.590477000005,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":34.51975631713867,"normalized_volume":23.272693634033203,"liquidity":30519.8189,"open_interest":31531.264841,"categories":["Crypto"],"tags":[{"id":"21","slug":"crypto","label":"Crypto"},{"id":"1312","slug":"crypto-prices","label":"Crypto Prices"},{"id":"101757","slug":"recurring","label":"Recurring"},{"id":"102169","slug":"hide-from-new","label":"Hide From New"},{"id":"235","slug":"bitcoin","label":"Bitcoin"},{"id":"102127","slug":"up-or-down","label":"Up or Down"},{"id":"102133","slug":"today","label":"Today 🚀"},{"id":"102281","slug":"daily","label":"Daily"},{"id":"103665","slug":"daily-close","label":"Daily-Close"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.885,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.385,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":52720.33483099999,"updated_at":"2026-07-03T20:25:15.085454Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-03T20:25:15.085454Z","added_at":"2026-07-02T16:12:18.019298Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-4-2026","chart_24h":[1.960783,1.960783,4.960783,7.960783,7.960783,7.960783,7.960783,7.960783,7.960783,7.960783,7.960783,7.960783,7.960783,13.960783,20.235288999999998,20.235288999999998,20.235288999999998,22.196071999999997,22.196071999999997,48.354234,55.527309,115.135151,4684.186485,5470.28526,11331.596534999999,16367.094744999999,16912.334016999997,19273.015282999993,25759.782873,27397.705154000003],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2769684","event_id":"659147","slug":"bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-4-2026","question":"Bitcoin Up or Down on July 4?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to \"Up\" if the \"Close\" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final \"Close\" price for the Jul 4 '26 12:00 ET candle.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Down\" if the \"Close\" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final \"Close\" price for the Jul 4 '26 12:00 ET candle.\n\nIf the final \"Close\" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT \"Close\" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with \"1m\" and \"Candles\" selected on the top bar.\n\nPlease note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BTC+fullsize.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BTC+fullsize.png","outcomes":["Up","Down"],"outcome_prices":[0.885,0.115],"probability":0.885,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-02T16:00:19Z","end_date":"2026-07-04T16:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":52722.29561400002,"volume_24hr":52722.295613999995,"prob_24h_change":0.385,"volume_24h_change":52720.33483099999,"normalized_vol_24hr":42.94904327392578,"normalized_volume":33.97105407714844,"liquidity":27937.3947,"categories":["Crypto"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-03T20:26:22.678881Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-03T20:25:15.251847Z","added_at":"2026-07-02T16:12:18.113213Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-4-2026/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-4-2026","event_title":"Bitcoin Up or Down on July 4?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.5,0.5,0.495,0.495,0.495,0.495,0.485,0.49,0.495,0.565,0.555,0.615,0.635,0.655,0.685,0.685,0.835]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/659147","as_of":"2026-07-03T20:39:07.448469Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Bitcoin Up or Down on July 4?\" — top market at 88% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}