{"source":"polymarket","id":"664364","ticker":"greater-manchester-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory-20260703224447578","slug":"greater-manchester-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory-20260703224447578","title":"Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory","description":"The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.\n\nThe final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-winner-20260619154130299-Tn4UQP4S-N8T.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-winner-20260619154130299-Tn4UQP4S-N8T.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-04T00:57:43.460239Z","end_date":"2026-07-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1124.785666,"volume_24hr":1124.785666,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":15.093536376953125,"normalized_volume":10.12619400024414,"liquidity":50009.81461,"open_interest":399.68895499999996,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"734","slug":"uk","label":"UK"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"103686","slug":"manchester","label":"manchester"},{"id":"105451","slug":"andy-burnham","label":"Andy Burnham"},{"id":"1372","slug":"united-kingdom","label":"United Kingdom"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"105446","slug":"greater-manchester","label":"Greater Manchester"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Bev Craig 5–10%","top_outcome_probability":0.295,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.15000000000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":285.1,"updated_at":"2026-07-04T22:48:26.748051Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-04T22:48:26.748051Z","added_at":"2026-07-04T01:10:47.086696Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory-20260703224447578","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,36.68,36.68,36.68,36.68,76.68,76.68,76.68,76.68,76.68,76.68,76.68,96.68,393.6142,429.7142,499.7142,499.7142,499.7142,589.7142,589.7142,589.7142,599.7142,599.7142,599.7142,599.7142,599.7142,599.7142,599.7142,599.7142,599.7142,599.7142,683.7142,1106.205666,1106.205666,1124.785666,1124.785666,1124.785666,1124.785666],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2790018","event_id":"664364","slug":"will-bev-craig-win-the-2026-greater-manchester-mayoral-election-by-510-20260703224447581","question":"Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by 5–10%?","group_item_title":"Bev Craig 5–10%","description":"The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.\n\nThe final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.295,0.705],"probability":0.295,"spread":0.25,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-04T00:57:55.237843Z","end_date":"2026-07-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":285.1,"volume_24hr":285.1,"prob_24h_change":-0.15000000000000002,"volume_24h_change":285.1,"normalized_vol_24hr":10.649360656738281,"normalized_volume":9.177428245544434,"liquidity":2180.2174,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-07-04T22:32:13.003579Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-04T22:31:39.974653Z","added_at":"2026-07-04T01:10:47.119059Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory-20260703224447578/will-bev-craig-win-the-2026-greater-manchester-mayoral-election-by-510-20260703224447581","event_title":"Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.445,0.445,0.45,0.455,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.475,0.45,0.435,0.435,0.435,0.435,0.435,0.415,0.42,0.415,0.415,0.42,0.3,0.305,0.305,0.295]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2790019","event_id":"664364","slug":"will-bev-craig-win-the-2026-greater-manchester-mayoral-election-by-less-than-5-20260703224447582","question":"Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by less than 5%?","group_item_title":"Bev Craig <5%","description":"The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.\n\nThe final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.21,0.79],"probability":0.21,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-04T00:58:01.424653Z","end_date":"2026-07-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":75.55,"volume_24hr":75.55,"prob_24h_change":-0.23,"volume_24h_change":75.55,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.263545513153076,"normalized_volume":5.397810935974121,"liquidity":8460.2624,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-07-04T22:32:13.003579Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-04T22:31:39.974653Z","added_at":"2026-07-04T01:10:47.119059Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory-20260703224447578/will-bev-craig-win-the-2026-greater-manchester-mayoral-election-by-less-than-5-20260703224447582","event_title":"Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.44,0.44,0.445,0.45,0.23,0.235,0.24,0.245,0.225,0.21,0.215,0.205,0.215,0.205,0.21]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2790020","event_id":"664364","slug":"will-sian-astley-win-the-2026-greater-manchester-mayoral-election-by-less-than-5-20260703224447583","question":"Will Sian Astley win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by less than 5%?","group_item_title":"Sian Astley <5%","description":"The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.\n\nThe final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.21,0.79],"probability":0.21,"spread":0.32,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-04T00:58:06.776799Z","end_date":"2026-07-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":112.10000000000001,"volume_24hr":112.10000000000001,"prob_24h_change":-0.23,"volume_24h_change":112.10000000000001,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.441445350646973,"normalized_volume":6.412903785705566,"liquidity":866.029,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-07-04T22:32:13.003579Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-04T22:31:39.974653Z","added_at":"2026-07-04T01:10:47.119059Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory-20260703224447578/will-sian-astley-win-the-2026-greater-manchester-mayoral-election-by-less-than-5-20260703224447583","event_title":"Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.44,0.44,0.435,0.23,0.43,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.445,0.46,0.225,0.17,0.09,0.065,0.07,0.075,0.065,0.055,0.06,0.065,0.125,0.045,0.16,0.175,0.19,0.225,0.23,0.21]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2790021","event_id":"664364","slug":"will-sian-astley-win-the-2026-greater-manchester-mayoral-election-by-at-least-5-20260703224447584","question":"Will Sian Astley win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 5%?","group_item_title":"Sian Astley 5%+","description":"The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.\n\nThe final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.085,0.915],"probability":0.085,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-04T00:58:12.863245Z","end_date":"2026-07-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":75.55,"volume_24hr":75.55,"prob_24h_change":-0.355,"volume_24h_change":75.55,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.263545513153076,"normalized_volume":5.397810935974121,"liquidity":8531.3038,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-07-04T22:32:13.003579Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-04T22:31:39.974653Z","added_at":"2026-07-04T01:10:47.119059Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory-20260703224447578/will-sian-astley-win-the-2026-greater-manchester-mayoral-election-by-at-least-5-20260703224447584","event_title":"Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.44,0.44,0.435,0.065,0.07,0.075,0.065,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.08,0.085]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2790017","event_id":"664364","slug":"will-bev-craig-win-the-2026-greater-manchester-mayoral-election-by-1015-20260703224447580","question":"Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by 10–15%?","group_item_title":"Bev Craig 10–15%","description":"The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.\n\nThe final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.08,0.92],"probability":0.08,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-04T00:57:50.419401Z","end_date":"2026-07-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":75.55,"volume_24hr":75.55,"prob_24h_change":-0.36,"volume_24h_change":75.55,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.263545513153076,"normalized_volume":5.397810935974121,"liquidity":9558.4398,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-07-04T20:58:17.385469Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-04T20:57:45.107602Z","added_at":"2026-07-04T01:10:47.119059Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory-20260703224447578/will-bev-craig-win-the-2026-greater-manchester-mayoral-election-by-1015-20260703224447580","event_title":"Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.44,0.44,0.445,0.08,0.075,0.065,0.065,0.075,0.08]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2790016","event_id":"664364","slug":"will-bev-craig-win-the-2026-greater-manchester-mayoral-election-by-at-least-15-20260703224447579","question":"Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?","group_item_title":"Bev Craig 15%+","description":"The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.\n\nThe final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.05,0.95],"probability":0.05,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-04T00:57:43.460239Z","end_date":"2026-07-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":95.6342,"volume_24hr":95.6342,"prob_24h_change":-0.4,"volume_24h_change":95.6342,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.954436779022217,"normalized_volume":5.993208885192871,"liquidity":8455.0419,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-07-04T19:26:32.963136Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-04T19:25:40.469711Z","added_at":"2026-07-04T01:10:47.119059Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory-20260703224447578/will-bev-craig-win-the-2026-greater-manchester-mayoral-election-by-at-least-15-20260703224447579","event_title":"Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.45,0.45,0.45,0.075,0.07,0.07,0.065,0.055,0.05,0.045,0.045,0.05]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2790022","event_id":"664364","slug":"will-another-outcome-occur-in-the-2026-greater-manchester-mayoral-election-20260703224447585","question":"Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election?","group_item_title":"Other","description":"The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.\n\nThe final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0085,0.9915],"probability":0.0085,"spread":0.013,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-04T00:58:24.379858Z","end_date":"2026-07-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":405.30146599999995,"volume_24hr":405.301466,"prob_24h_change":-0.4365,"volume_24h_change":405.301466,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.01106071472168,"normalized_volume":10.350916862487793,"liquidity":11938.64091,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-07-04T20:43:05.482243Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-04T20:41:10.165360Z","added_at":"2026-07-04T01:10:47.119059Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory-20260703224447578/will-another-outcome-occur-in-the-2026-greater-manchester-mayoral-election-20260703224447585","event_title":"Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.445,0.445,0.045,0.0355,0.035,0.0335,0.033,0.034,0.0335,0.035,0.0375,0.0335,0.029,0.032,0.034,0.0065,0.0085,0.0085]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/664364","as_of":"2026-07-04T22:56:21.413019Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory\" — top market at 1% probability across 7 outcomes","source_url":null}}