{"source":"polymarket","id":"674584","ticker":"will-rebels-capture-gao-by-december-31-20260706144440995","slug":"will-rebels-capture-gao-by-december-31-20260706144440995","title":"Will Rebels capture Gao by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the \"Mosquée Koweït مسجد\" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.\n \nIf anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-rebels-capture-gao-by-december-31-20260706144440995-wsVpn8aOddFO.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-rebels-capture-gao-by-december-31-20260706144440995-wsVpn8aOddFO.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-06T22:05:34.556204Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4024.2422340000003,"volume_24hr":2530.56,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":26.52103614807129,"normalized_volume":15.692234992980957,"liquidity":557.7672,"open_interest":399.290634,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"105548","slug":"gao","label":"Gao"},{"id":"105547","slug":"mali","label":"Mali"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.23,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.04500000000000001,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2530.56,"updated_at":"2026-08-16T03:56:13.651511Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-16T03:56:13.651511Z","added_at":"2026-07-06T22:10:45.767533Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-rebels-capture-gao-by-december-31-20260706144440995","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,294.38,294.38,294.38,294.38,294.38,294.38,294.38,547.86,547.86,547.86,547.86,547.86,547.86,547.86,547.86,2530.56,2530.56,2530.56,2530.56,2530.56,2530.56],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2822666","event_id":"674584","slug":"will-rebels-capture-gao-by-december-31-20260706144440995","question":"Will Rebels capture Gao by December 31?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the \"Mosquée Koweït مسجد\" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.\n\nIf anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-rebels-capture-gao-by-december-31-20260706144440995-wsVpn8aOddFO.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-rebels-capture-gao-by-december-31-20260706144440995-wsVpn8aOddFO.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.23,0.77],"probability":0.23,"spread":0.08,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-06T22:05:34.556204Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4024.2422340000003,"volume_24hr":2530.56,"prob_24h_change":-0.04500000000000001,"volume_24h_change":2530.56,"normalized_vol_24hr":27.778541564941406,"normalized_volume":20.213428497314453,"liquidity":569.4677,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Mali"],"updated_at":"2026-08-16T03:56:14.259646Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-16T03:56:14.259646Z","added_at":"2026-07-06T22:10:45.851678Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-rebels-capture-gao-by-december-31-20260706144440995/will-rebels-capture-gao-by-december-31-20260706144440995","event_title":"Will Rebels capture Gao by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.255,0.245,0.255,0.285,0.295,0.235,0.265,0.25,0.265,0.255,0.265,0.235,0.22,0.245,0.22,0.195,0.195,0.195,0.26,0.32,0.255,0.22,0.2,0.195,0.195,0.255,0.215,0.205,0.23,0.23,0.205,0.21]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/674584","as_of":"2026-08-16T03:58:12.005439Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will Rebels capture Gao by December 31?\" — top market at 23% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}