{"source":"polymarket","id":"674590","ticker":"michigan-democratic-senate-primary-margin-of-victory-20260706180330731","slug":"michigan-democratic-senate-primary-margin-of-victory-20260706180330731","title":"Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory","description":"Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-winner-uPezQW2QcX0-.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-winner-uPezQW2QcX0-.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-06T22:10:42.644106Z","end_date":"2026-08-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3049.898878,"volume_24hr":3044.898878,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":19.44334602355957,"normalized_volume":13.140658378601074,"liquidity":28101.67088,"open_interest":1312.536388,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"820","slug":"michigan","label":"michigan"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"264","slug":"primaries","label":"Primaries"},{"id":"24","slug":"us-election","label":"USA Election"},{"id":"105189","slug":"august-4-primaries","label":"August 4 Primaries"},{"id":"105145","slug":"democratic-primaries","label":"Democratic Primaries"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Other","top_outcome_probability":0.5,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-08T06:51:38.681961Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-08T06:51:38.681961Z","added_at":"2026-07-06T22:26:11.363098Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-margin-of-victory-20260706180330731","chart_24h":[5.0,5.0,5.0,165.0,185.03333,185.03333,185.03333,185.03333,185.03333,185.03333,185.03333,185.03333,185.03333,185.03333,240.12333,263.14373,263.14373,263.14373,263.14373,263.14373,263.14373,263.14373,337.14373,337.14373,337.14373,377.408878,417.408878,457.408878,457.408878,1038.698878,1315.6988780000001,1310.6988780000001,1310.6988780000001,1330.6988780000001,2639.978878],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2822707","event_id":"674590","slug":"will-abdul-el-sayed-win-the-michigan-senate-democratic-primary-by-510-20260706180333323","question":"Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?","group_item_title":"El-Sayed 5–10%","description":"Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.225,0.775],"probability":0.225,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-06T22:12:27.863563Z","end_date":"2026-08-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2032.65,"volume_24hr":2032.65,"prob_24h_change":-0.215,"volume_24h_change":2032.65,"normalized_vol_24hr":19.926660537719727,"normalized_volume":16.276060104370117,"liquidity":5588.0209,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-08T06:52:28.289079Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-08T06:51:38.924483Z","added_at":"2026-07-06T22:26:11.442618Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-margin-of-victory-20260706180330731/will-abdul-el-sayed-win-the-michigan-senate-democratic-primary-by-510-20260706180333323","event_title":"Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.44,0.415,0.44,0.39,0.35,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.315,0.375,0.385,0.35,0.47,0.405,0.375,0.36,0.345,0.38,0.37,0.315,0.32,0.385,0.175,0.17,0.165,0.165,0.165,0.375,0.185,0.185,0.185,0.185,0.235]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2822703","event_id":"674590","slug":"will-abdul-el-sayed-win-the-michigan-senate-democratic-primary-by-more-than-25-20260706180333319","question":"Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by more than 25%?","group_item_title":"El-Sayed 25%+","description":"Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.185,0.815],"probability":0.185,"spread":0.31,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-06T22:15:17.181047Z","end_date":"2026-08-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":64.0,"volume_24hr":64.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.15999999999999998,"volume_24h_change":64.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.98391056060791,"normalized_volume":4.8876471519470215,"liquidity":808.6414,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-08T06:52:28.289079Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-08T06:51:38.924483Z","added_at":"2026-07-06T22:26:11.442618Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-margin-of-victory-20260706180330731/will-abdul-el-sayed-win-the-michigan-senate-democratic-primary-by-more-than-25-20260706180333319","event_title":"Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.345,0.445,0.345,0.39,0.27,0.295,0.325,0.295,0.245,0.26,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.255,0.28,0.29,0.25,0.29,0.285,0.3,0.24,0.25,0.225,0.195,0.205,0.21,0.225,0.22,0.19,0.195,0.205,0.2,0.185,0.18]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2822706","event_id":"674590","slug":"will-abdul-el-sayed-win-the-michigan-senate-democratic-primary-by-1015-20260706180333322","question":"Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?","group_item_title":"El-Sayed 10–15%","description":"Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.17,0.83],"probability":0.17,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-06T22:10:42.644106Z","end_date":"2026-08-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":122.25,"volume_24hr":122.25,"prob_24h_change":-0.23999999999999996,"volume_24h_change":122.25,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.9588541984558105,"normalized_volume":6.500777244567871,"liquidity":900.816,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-08T06:37:28.871824Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-08T06:36:35.915080Z","added_at":"2026-07-06T22:26:11.442618Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-margin-of-victory-20260706180330731/will-abdul-el-sayed-win-the-michigan-senate-democratic-primary-by-1015-20260706180333322","event_title":"Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.41,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.355,0.32,0.31,0.25,0.265,0.365,0.365,0.365,0.265,0.43,0.325,0.3,0.345,0.325,0.33,0.28,0.29,0.13,0.13,0.135,0.13,0.135,0.135,0.135,0.135,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.155]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2822705","event_id":"674590","slug":"will-abdul-el-sayed-win-the-michigan-senate-democratic-primary-by-1520-20260706180333321","question":"Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?","group_item_title":"El-Sayed 15–20%","description":"Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.155,0.845],"probability":0.155,"spread":0.07,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-06T22:11:55.468237Z","end_date":"2026-08-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":90.0,"volume_24hr":90.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.21,"volume_24h_change":90.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.9874420166015625,"normalized_volume":5.707329750061035,"liquidity":734.8474,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-08T06:37:28.871824Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-08T06:36:35.915080Z","added_at":"2026-07-06T22:26:11.442618Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-margin-of-victory-20260706180330731/will-abdul-el-sayed-win-the-michigan-senate-democratic-primary-by-1520-20260706180333321","event_title":"Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.365,0.445,0.25,0.345,0.27,0.285,0.285,0.28,0.245,0.245,0.275,0.325,0.335,0.285,0.35,0.395,0.295,0.315,0.295,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.455,0.44,0.295,0.29,0.09,0.095,0.1,0.1,0.065,0.075,0.08,0.095,0.15]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2822708","event_id":"674590","slug":"will-abdul-el-sayed-win-the-michigan-senate-democratic-primary-by-less-than-5-20260706180333324","question":"Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?","group_item_title":"El-Sayed <5%","description":"Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.115,0.885],"probability":0.115,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-06T22:10:53.843576Z","end_date":"2026-08-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":294.84000000000003,"volume_24hr":294.84,"prob_24h_change":-0.325,"volume_24h_change":294.84,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.117227554321289,"normalized_volume":9.080531120300293,"liquidity":872.6864,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-08T06:37:28.871824Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-08T06:21:16.620284Z","added_at":"2026-07-06T22:26:11.442618Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-margin-of-victory-20260706180330731/will-abdul-el-sayed-win-the-michigan-senate-democratic-primary-by-less-than-5-20260706180333324","event_title":"Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.44,0.395,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.375,0.375,0.35,0.3,0.305,0.375,0.38,0.375,0.325,0.24,0.255,0.235,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.245,0.195,0.22,0.205,0.21,0.31,0.115]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2822704","event_id":"674590","slug":"will-abdul-el-sayed-win-the-michigan-senate-democratic-primary-by-2025-20260706180333320","question":"Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 20–25%?","group_item_title":"El-Sayed 20–25%","description":"Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.11,0.89],"probability":0.11,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-06T22:13:48.318260Z","end_date":"2026-08-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":102.5,"volume_24hr":102.5,"prob_24h_change":-0.26,"volume_24h_change":102.5,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.39188814163208,"normalized_volume":6.037680625915527,"liquidity":744.4262,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-08T06:37:28.871824Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-08T06:21:16.620284Z","added_at":"2026-07-06T22:26:11.442618Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-margin-of-victory-20260706180330731/will-abdul-el-sayed-win-the-michigan-senate-democratic-primary-by-2025-20260706180333320","event_title":"Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.37,0.33,0.375,0.315,0.21,0.21,0.195,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.315,0.245,0.28,0.25,0.275,0.225,0.225,0.275,0.26,0.28,0.055,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.065,0.065,0.065,0.06,0.06,0.11]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2822711","event_id":"674590","slug":"will-haley-stevens-win-the-michigan-senate-democratic-primary-by-1015-20260706180333327","question":"Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?","group_item_title":"Stevens 10–15%","description":"Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.085,0.915],"probability":0.085,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-06T22:10:59.531681Z","end_date":"2026-08-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":94.180908,"volume_24hr":94.180908,"prob_24h_change":-0.3,"volume_24h_change":94.180908,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.1272993087768555,"normalized_volume":5.821564674377441,"liquidity":8952.0497,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-08T06:37:28.871824Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-08T06:21:16.620284Z","added_at":"2026-07-06T22:26:11.442618Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-margin-of-victory-20260706180330731/will-haley-stevens-win-the-michigan-senate-democratic-primary-by-1015-20260706180333327","event_title":"Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.385,0.415,0.405,0.325,0.31,0.295,0.295,0.29,0.255,0.28,0.305,0.32,0.335,0.28,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.085,0.09,0.09,0.095,0.095,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2822710","event_id":"674590","slug":"will-haley-stevens-win-the-michigan-senate-democratic-primary-by-510-20260706180333326","question":"Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?","group_item_title":"Stevens 5–10%","description":"Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.08,0.92],"probability":0.08,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-06T22:10:56.652519Z","end_date":"2026-08-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":82.11130800000001,"volume_24hr":82.111308,"prob_24h_change":-0.305,"volume_24h_change":82.111308,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.709338188171387,"normalized_volume":5.480175018310547,"liquidity":8343.3841,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-08T06:37:28.871824Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-08T06:21:16.620284Z","added_at":"2026-07-06T22:26:11.442618Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-margin-of-victory-20260706180330731/will-haley-stevens-win-the-michigan-senate-democratic-primary-by-510-20260706180333326","event_title":"Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.385,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.295,0.33,0.26,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.335,0.295,0.365,0.325,0.27,0.32,0.27,0.28,0.255,0.265,0.065,0.07,0.07,0.075,0.08,0.075,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2822709","event_id":"674590","slug":"will-haley-stevens-win-the-michigan-senate-democratic-primary-by-less-than-5-20260706180333325","question":"Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?","group_item_title":"Stevens <5%","description":"Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.06,0.94],"probability":0.06,"spread":0.08,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-06T22:10:58.736731Z","end_date":"2026-08-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":92.0,"volume_24hr":92.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.365,"volume_24h_change":92.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.054955959320068,"normalized_volume":5.76247501373291,"liquidity":633.5267,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-08T06:37:28.871824Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-08T06:36:35.915080Z","added_at":"2026-07-06T22:26:11.442618Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-margin-of-victory-20260706180330731/will-haley-stevens-win-the-michigan-senate-democratic-primary-by-less-than-5-20260706180333325","event_title":"Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.425,0.42,0.395,0.34,0.315,0.295,0.28,0.29,0.265,0.26,0.285,0.315,0.285,0.25,0.31,0.365,0.31,0.3,0.265,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.305,0.3,0.31,0.265,0.07,0.07,0.085,0.09,0.06,0.065,0.065,0.085,0.075]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2822712","event_id":"674590","slug":"will-haley-stevens-win-the-michigan-senate-democratic-primary-by-more-than-15-20260706180333328","question":"Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by more than 15%?","group_item_title":"Stevens 15%+","description":"Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0345,0.9655],"probability":0.0345,"spread":0.049,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-06T22:11:11.657327Z","end_date":"2026-08-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":75.36666199999999,"volume_24hr":70.366662,"prob_24h_change":-0.2905,"volume_24h_change":65.366662,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.25480842590332,"normalized_volume":5.272323131561279,"liquidity":909.71798,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-08T06:52:28.289079Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-08T06:51:38.924483Z","added_at":"2026-07-06T22:26:11.442618Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-margin-of-victory-20260706180330731/will-haley-stevens-win-the-michigan-senate-democratic-primary-by-more-than-15-20260706180333328","event_title":"Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.325,0.265,0.285,0.325,0.265,0.285,0.26,0.225,0.21,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.175,0.185,0.17,0.165,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.135,0.13,0.08,0.075,0.05,0.125,0.125,0.08]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2822713","event_id":"674590","slug":"will-another-outcome-occur-in-the-michigan-senate-democratic-primary-20260706180333329","question":"Will another outcome occur in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?","group_item_title":"Other","description":"Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.5,0.5],"probability":0.5,"spread":1.0,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-06T22:11:15.533678Z","end_date":"2026-08-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-08T00:10:44.435090Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-06T22:26:11.442618Z","added_at":"2026-07-06T22:26:11.442618Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-margin-of-victory-20260706180330731/will-another-outcome-occur-in-the-michigan-senate-democratic-primary-20260706180333329","event_title":"Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.5,0.5]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/674590","as_of":"2026-07-08T06:58:20.339815Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory\" — top market at 22% probability across 11 outcomes","source_url":null}}