{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/678685","as_of":"2026-10-24T18:31:58.621293Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?\" — 2 markets; highest \"June 30, 2027\" at 48% as of 2026-10-24 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/678685","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/viktor-orban-arrested-by-december-31-20260708001041551"},"source":"polymarket","id":"678685","ticker":"viktor-orban-arrested-by-december-31-20260708001041551","slug":"viktor-orban-arrested-by-december-31-20260708001041551","title":"Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTemporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.\n\nA qualifying arrest/detention includes:\n* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)\n* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant\n* Being formally booked or processed following detention\n* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station\n* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\n* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring\n\nThe following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention\n* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed\n* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest\n* Being named in an indictment without arrest\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/viktor-orban-arrested-by-december-31-20260708001041551-AWGDrU0TXcos.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/viktor-orban-arrested-by-december-31-20260708001041551-AWGDrU0TXcos.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T01:15:24.492150Z","end_date":"2027-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":105960.63237400002,"volume_24hr":14635.92361,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":36.11555862426758,"normalized_volume":30.4063663482666,"liquidity":70491.50511,"open_interest":41039.105752,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"103761","slug":"orban","label":"Orban"},{"id":"101272","slug":"hungary","label":"Hungary"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"103194","slug":"viktor-orban","label":"Viktor Orban"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"June 30, 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.485,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":4788.201772999999,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T18:18:09.295703Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T18:18:09.295703Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T01:22:58.375537Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/viktor-orban-arrested-by-december-31-20260708001041551","chart_24h":[15260.988413,15294.629639000002,15886.834,19520.564019,18993.391373,17076.74394,17120.61096,17685.61096,17705.61096,18242.769435,18242.769435,18277.429435000002,20854.629435,20904.589435,20879.459435,20879.459435,21605.829333,21244.424106,21381.182814,21368.036070000002,21443.063372,17826.342984,19233.66374,18014.960718000002,18406.079783,17622.453256,17676.992486,16965.918473,14856.385433,15066.923610000002],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":2,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"6082702","event_id":"678685","slug":"viktor-orban-arrested-by-june-30-2027","question":"Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?","group_item_title":"June 30, 2027","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTemporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.\n\nA qualifying arrest/detention includes:\n* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)\n* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant\n* Being formally booked or processed following detention\n* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station\n* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\n* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring\n\nThe following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention\n* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed\n* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest\n* Being named in an indictment without arrest\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/viktor-orban-arrested-by-december-31-20260708001041551-AWGDrU0TXcos.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/viktor-orban-arrested-by-december-31-20260708001041551-AWGDrU0TXcos.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.485,0.515],"probability":0.485,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-23T14:31:34Z","end_date":"2027-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":7994.703701,"volume_24hr":6391.452736999999,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":4788.201772999999,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.66428565979004,"normalized_volume":23.69434928894043,"liquidity":37853.7094,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Hungary"],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T18:18:09.916604Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T18:18:09.916604Z","added_at":"2026-10-23T14:50:47.733058Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/viktor-orban-arrested-by-december-31-20260708001041551/viktor-orban-arrested-by-june-30-2027","event_title":"Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.485,0.485,0.675,0.515,0.585,0.575,0.575,0.575,0.575,0.59,0.595,0.515,0.5,0.49,0.485,0.485,0.485,0.485,0.485,0.495,0.485,0.485,0.485,0.485,0.485,0.485,0.485]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2839955","event_id":"678685","slug":"viktor-orban-arrested-by-december-31-20260708001041551","question":"Viktor Orbán arrested by...?","group_item_title":"December 31, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTemporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.\n\nA qualifying arrest/detention includes:\n* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)\n* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant\n* Being formally booked or processed following detention\n* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station\n* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\n* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring\n\nThe following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention\n* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed\n* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest\n* Being named in an indictment without arrest\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/viktor-orban-arrested-by-december-31-20260708001041551-AWGDrU0TXcos.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/viktor-orban-arrested-by-december-31-20260708001041551-AWGDrU0TXcos.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.2115,0.7885],"probability":0.2115,"spread":0.005,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T01:15:24.492150Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":97965.92867300002,"volume_24hr":8244.470873,"prob_24h_change":-0.04300000000000001,"volume_24h_change":-5413.266575999998,"normalized_vol_24hr":32.471649169921875,"normalized_volume":38.749717712402344,"liquidity":31079.63125,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Hungary"],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T17:52:37.214162Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T17:52:37.214162Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T01:22:58.398354Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/viktor-orban-arrested-by-december-31-20260708001041551/viktor-orban-arrested-by-december-31-20260708001041551","event_title":"Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.2545,0.2545,0.268,0.237,0.274,0.269,0.265,0.27,0.273,0.271,0.271,0.2725,0.273,0.274,0.275,0.277,0.279,0.28,0.2805,0.28,0.282,0.2805,0.245,0.245,0.2395,0.2395,0.2295,0.2115,0.211,0.2115]}]}