{"source":"polymarket","id":"678693","ticker":"china-ballistic-missile-launch-by-december-31-20260706145934670","slug":"china-ballistic-missile-launch-by-december-31-20260706145934670","title":"China ballistic missile launch by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.\n\nLaunches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-ballistic-missile-launch-by-december-31-20260706145934670-64FNF0sheaT8.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-ballistic-missile-launch-by-december-31-20260706145934670-64FNF0sheaT8.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T01:18:14.882187Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2288.455035,"volume_24hr":1168.9096519999998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":20.26860237121582,"normalized_volume":12.184491157531738,"liquidity":12436.8586,"open_interest":1489.255034,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"100674","slug":"missile","label":"missile"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.22,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.035,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1168.9096519999998,"updated_at":"2026-07-14T04:44:58.453508Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-14T04:44:58.453508Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T01:22:58.375537Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/china-ballistic-missile-launch-by-december-31-20260706145934670","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,800.77,805.77,805.77,805.77,859.2199999999999,927.9096519999998,927.9096519999998,927.9096519999998,927.9096519999998,927.9096519999998,927.9096519999998,927.9096519999998,927.9096519999998,938.9096519999998,1068.9096519999998,1118.9096519999998,1118.9096519999998,1118.9096519999998,1118.9096519999998],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2839963","event_id":"678693","slug":"china-ballistic-missile-launch-by-december-31-20260706145934670","question":"China ballistic missile launch by December 31?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.\n\nLaunches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-ballistic-missile-launch-by-december-31-20260706145934670-64FNF0sheaT8.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-ballistic-missile-launch-by-december-31-20260706145934670-64FNF0sheaT8.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.22,0.78],"probability":0.22,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T01:18:14.882187Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2288.455035,"volume_24hr":1168.9096519999998,"prob_24h_change":0.035,"volume_24h_change":1168.9096519999998,"normalized_vol_24hr":22.368061065673828,"normalized_volume":16.78630256652832,"liquidity":5903.812,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["China"],"updated_at":"2026-07-14T04:30:09.382868Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-14T04:27:47.209535Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T01:22:58.398354Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/china-ballistic-missile-launch-by-december-31-20260706145934670/china-ballistic-missile-launch-by-december-31-20260706145934670","event_title":"China ballistic missile launch by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.185,0.185,0.185,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.175,0.17,0.165,0.17,0.24,0.245,0.235,0.235,0.26,0.255,0.27,0.27,0.275,0.26,0.26,0.265,0.27,0.22,0.22,0.225,0.22,0.22]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/678693","as_of":"2026-07-14T04:57:20.502850Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"China ballistic missile launch by December 31?\" — top market at 22% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}