{"source":"polymarket","id":"682091","ticker":"iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295","slug":"iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295","title":"Iran military action against a gulf state on...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: \nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of:  i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-iran-strike-a-gulf-state-on-dw7980wl77hu.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-iran-strike-a-gulf-state-on-dw7980wl77hu.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:21:15.756192Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6514.767466,"volume_24hr":6514.767466,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":25.07407569885254,"normalized_volume":15.738297462463379,"liquidity":39939.44484,"open_interest":2294.18167,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"637","slug":"qatar","label":"qatar"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"308","slug":"saudi-arabia","label":"saudi arabia"},{"id":"104010","slug":"diplomacy-ceasefire","label":"Iran Ceasefire"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"July 9","top_outcome_probability":0.873,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.118,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":4814.729069,"updated_at":"2026-07-09T03:58:19.350266Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T03:58:19.350266Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.210170Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295","chart_24h":[5.0,185.83,630.440502,2350.170618,4483.442513999999,4856.523048999999,5317.179047,5740.572122],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851414","event_id":"682091","slug":"iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-9-20260708212322934","question":"Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?","group_item_title":"July 9","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: \nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of:  i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.873,0.127],"probability":0.873,"spread":0.046,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:21:38.050180Z","end_date":"2026-07-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4819.729069,"volume_24hr":4819.729069,"prob_24h_change":0.118,"volume_24h_change":4814.729069,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.095991134643555,"normalized_volume":20.17324447631836,"liquidity":10409.34445,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-07-09T03:58:43.800567Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T03:58:19.430145Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-9-20260708212322934","event_title":"Iran military action against a gulf state on...?","chart_24h":[0.755,0.8,0.64,0.825,0.951,0.951,0.9375,0.8955]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851429","event_id":"682091","slug":"iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-24-20260708212322949","question":"Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?","group_item_title":"July 24","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: \nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of:  i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.48,0.52],"probability":0.48,"spread":0.78,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:21:15.756192Z","end_date":"2026-07-24T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":32.95,"volume_24hr":32.95,"prob_24h_change":-0.020000000000000018,"volume_24h_change":32.95,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.19921875,"normalized_volume":3.4850196838378906,"liquidity":1081.8433,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-07-09T03:43:49.607958Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T03:43:37.698194Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-24-20260708212322949","event_title":"Iran military action against a gulf state on...?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.455,0.475,0.48]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851432","event_id":"682091","slug":"iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-27-20260708212322952","question":"Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?","group_item_title":"July 27","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: \nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of:  i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.465,0.535],"probability":0.465,"spread":0.83,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:21:23.773475Z","end_date":"2026-07-27T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":58.59,"volume_24hr":58.59,"prob_24h_change":-0.004999999999999949,"volume_24h_change":58.59,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.991335868835449,"normalized_volume":4.686269760131836,"liquidity":1070.6096,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-07-09T02:18:47.201583Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T02:18:40.939031Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-27-20260708212322952","event_title":"Iran military action against a gulf state on...?","chart_24h":[0.47,0.47,0.455,0.465]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851416","event_id":"682091","slug":"iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-11-20260708212322936","question":"Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?","group_item_title":"July 11","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: \nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of:  i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.385,0.615],"probability":0.385,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:21:28.880081Z","end_date":"2026-07-11T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":100.0,"volume_24hr":100.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.065,"volume_24h_change":100.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.912782669067383,"normalized_volume":5.974209785461426,"liquidity":1195.4898,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-07-09T03:29:15.856358Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T03:29:05.117602Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-11-20260708212322936","event_title":"Iran military action against a gulf state on...?","chart_24h":[0.45,0.45,0.435,0.42,0.45,0.34,0.35,0.385]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851415","event_id":"682091","slug":"iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-10-20260708212322935","question":"Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?","group_item_title":"July 10","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: \nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of:  i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.355,0.645],"probability":0.355,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:24:45.992502Z","end_date":"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1503.4983969999998,"volume_24hr":1503.4983970000003,"prob_24h_change":-0.10500000000000004,"volume_24h_change":1503.4983970000003,"normalized_vol_24hr":22.398561477661133,"normalized_volume":15.013684272766113,"liquidity":4850.1915,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-07-09T03:29:15.856358Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T03:29:05.117602Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-10-20260708212322935","event_title":"Iran military action against a gulf state on...?","chart_24h":[0.46,0.675,0.47,0.605,0.49,0.38,0.335,0.355]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851434","event_id":"682091","slug":"iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-29-20260708212322954","question":"Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?","group_item_title":"July 29","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: \nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of:  i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.495,0.505],"probability":0.495,"spread":0.77,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:24:51.077447Z","end_date":"2026-07-29T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.015000000000000013,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":1085.0629,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-07-09T03:43:49.607958Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T03:43:37.698194Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-29-20260708212322954","event_title":"Iran military action against a gulf state on...?","chart_24h":[0.48,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.485,0.495]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851433","event_id":"682091","slug":"iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-28-20260708212322953","question":"Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?","group_item_title":"July 28","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: \nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of:  i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.49,0.51],"probability":0.49,"spread":0.78,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:23:53.866683Z","end_date":"2026-07-28T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.020000000000000018,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":1073.1801,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-07-09T03:43:49.607958Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T03:43:37.698194Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-28-20260708212322953","event_title":"Iran military action against a gulf state on...?","chart_24h":[0.47,0.47,0.475,0.48,0.475,0.48,0.49]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851430","event_id":"682091","slug":"iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-25-20260708212322950","question":"Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?","group_item_title":"July 25","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: \nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of:  i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.485,0.515],"probability":0.485,"spread":0.79,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:21:17.572653Z","end_date":"2026-07-25T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.015000000000000013,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":1077.163,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-07-09T03:43:49.607958Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T03:43:37.698194Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-25-20260708212322950","event_title":"Iran military action against a gulf state on...?","chart_24h":[0.47,0.47,0.475,0.475,0.46,0.475,0.485]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851426","event_id":"682091","slug":"iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-21-20260708212322946","question":"Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?","group_item_title":"July 21","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: \nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of:  i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.48,0.52],"probability":0.48,"spread":0.8,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:21:48.150760Z","end_date":"2026-07-21T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":1086.9902,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-07-09T03:43:49.607958Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T03:43:37.698194Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-21-20260708212322946","event_title":"Iran military action against a gulf state on...?","chart_24h":[0.47,0.47,0.485,0.475,0.475,0.48]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851431","event_id":"682091","slug":"iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-26-20260708212322951","question":"Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?","group_item_title":"July 26","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: \nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of:  i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.48,0.52],"probability":0.48,"spread":0.8,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:21:20.683989Z","end_date":"2026-07-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.02999999999999997,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":1070.2536,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-07-09T03:29:15.856358Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T03:29:05.117602Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-26-20260708212322951","event_title":"Iran military action against a gulf state on...?","chart_24h":[0.45,0.45,0.455,0.48]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851428","event_id":"682091","slug":"iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-23-20260708212322948","question":"Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?","group_item_title":"July 23","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: \nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of:  i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.475,0.525],"probability":0.475,"spread":0.81,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:21:39.847527Z","end_date":"2026-07-23T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.024999999999999967,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":1078.0076,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-07-09T03:43:49.607958Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T03:43:37.698194Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-23-20260708212322948","event_title":"Iran military action against a gulf state on...?","chart_24h":[0.45,0.45,0.465,0.475]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851435","event_id":"682091","slug":"iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-30-20260708212322955","question":"Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?","group_item_title":"July 30","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: \nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of:  i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.47,0.53],"probability":0.47,"spread":0.82,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:23:57.613583Z","end_date":"2026-07-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.024999999999999967,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":1077.0418,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-07-09T03:43:49.607958Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T03:43:37.698194Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-30-20260708212322955","event_title":"Iran military action against a gulf state on...?","chart_24h":[0.445,0.45,0.46,0.47]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851427","event_id":"682091","slug":"iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-22-20260708212322947","question":"Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?","group_item_title":"July 22","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: \nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of:  i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.465,0.535],"probability":0.465,"spread":0.81,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:21:38.849335Z","end_date":"2026-07-22T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.015000000000000013,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":1081.9916,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-07-09T03:43:49.607958Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T03:43:37.698194Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-22-20260708212322947","event_title":"Iran military action against a gulf state on...?","chart_24h":[0.45,0.45,0.455,0.455,0.465]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851420","event_id":"682091","slug":"iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-15-20260708212322940","question":"Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?","group_item_title":"July 15","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: \nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of:  i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.46,0.54],"probability":0.46,"spread":0.76,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:21:34.939597Z","end_date":"2026-07-15T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.024999999999999967,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":1090.6752,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-07-09T03:58:27.983216Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T03:58:19.430145Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-15-20260708212322940","event_title":"Iran military action against a gulf state on...?","chart_24h":[0.485,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.455,0.455]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851419","event_id":"682091","slug":"iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-14-20260708212322939","question":"Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?","group_item_title":"July 14","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: \nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of:  i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.455,0.545],"probability":0.455,"spread":0.77,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:25:46.578481Z","end_date":"2026-07-14T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.014999999999999958,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":1163.6458,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-07-09T03:58:27.983216Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T03:58:19.430145Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-14-20260708212322939","event_title":"Iran military action against a gulf state on...?","chart_24h":[0.47,0.47,0.475,0.475,0.45,0.455,0.46]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851417","event_id":"682091","slug":"iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-12-20260708212322937","question":"Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?","group_item_title":"July 12","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: \nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of:  i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.45,0.55],"probability":0.45,"spread":0.78,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:21:27.054723Z","end_date":"2026-07-12T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":1108.0106,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-07-09T03:58:19.430145Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T03:58:19.430145Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-12-20260708212322937","event_title":"Iran military action against a gulf state on...?","chart_24h":[0.45,0.45,0.43,0.435,0.45]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851421","event_id":"682091","slug":"iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-16-20260708212322941","question":"Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?","group_item_title":"July 16","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: \nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of:  i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.45,0.55],"probability":0.45,"spread":0.72,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:21:44.901434Z","end_date":"2026-07-16T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":1188.8056,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-07-09T03:58:27.983216Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T03:58:19.430145Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-16-20260708212322941","event_title":"Iran military action against a gulf state on...?","chart_24h":[0.45,0.45,0.46,0.46]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851424","event_id":"682091","slug":"iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-19-20260708212322944","question":"Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?","group_item_title":"July 19","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: \nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of:  i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.445,0.555],"probability":0.445,"spread":0.73,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:21:35.979377Z","end_date":"2026-07-19T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.015000000000000013,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":1160.4117,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-07-09T03:58:27.983216Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T03:58:19.430145Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-19-20260708212322944","event_title":"Iran military action against a gulf state on...?","chart_24h":[0.46,0.47,0.475,0.48,0.455,0.445,0.455]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851418","event_id":"682091","slug":"iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-13-20260708212322938","question":"Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?","group_item_title":"July 13","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: \nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of:  i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.44,0.56],"probability":0.44,"spread":0.8,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:24:07.923573Z","end_date":"2026-07-13T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":1105.0166,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-07-09T02:18:47.201583Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T02:18:40.939031Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-13-20260708212322938","event_title":"Iran military action against a gulf state on...?","chart_24h":[0.445,0.45,0.44]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851422","event_id":"682091","slug":"iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-17-20260708212322942","question":"Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?","group_item_title":"July 17","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: \nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of:  i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.44,0.56],"probability":0.44,"spread":0.74,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:21:18.887218Z","end_date":"2026-07-17T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":1194.2872,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-07-09T03:58:27.983216Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T03:58:19.430145Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-17-20260708212322942","event_title":"Iran military action against a gulf state on...?","chart_24h":[0.45,0.45,0.445,0.45]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851436","event_id":"682091","slug":"iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-31-20260708212322956","question":"Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?","group_item_title":"July 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: \nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of:  i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.435,0.565],"probability":0.435,"spread":0.75,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:23:48.964866Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.034999999999999976,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":1433.5599,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-07-09T03:58:27.983216Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T03:58:19.430145Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-31-20260708212322956","event_title":"Iran military action against a gulf state on...?","chart_24h":[0.47,0.47,0.43,0.445,0.425,0.44,0.44]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851425","event_id":"682091","slug":"iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-20-20260708212322945","question":"Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?","group_item_title":"July 20","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: \nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of:  i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.295,0.705],"probability":0.295,"spread":0.41,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:21:21.739651Z","end_date":"2026-07-20T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.175,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":1361.4052,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-07-09T03:43:49.607958Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T03:43:37.698194Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-20-20260708212322945","event_title":"Iran military action against a gulf state on...?","chart_24h":[0.47,0.47,0.46,0.475,0.29,0.295]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851423","event_id":"682091","slug":"iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-18-20260708212322943","question":"Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?","group_item_title":"July 18","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: \nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of:  i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.28,0.72],"probability":0.28,"spread":0.44,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:24:18.151340Z","end_date":"2026-07-18T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.18999999999999995,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":1399.3138,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-07-09T03:58:27.983216Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T03:58:19.430145Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-july-18-20260708212322943","event_title":"Iran military action against a gulf state on...?","chart_24h":[0.47,0.475,0.48,0.475,0.285,0.285]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/682091","as_of":"2026-07-09T04:11:12.717712Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Iran military action against a gulf state on...?\" — top market at 87% probability across 23 outcomes","source_url":null}}