{"source":"polymarket","id":"682108","ticker":"az-01-republican-primary-margin-of-victory-20260708152700439","slug":"az-01-republican-primary-margin-of-victory-20260708152700439","title":"AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory","description":"The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/arizona-governor-republican-primary-winner-8t23gpPchbhQ.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/arizona-governor-republican-primary-winner-8t23gpPchbhQ.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:28:48.668985Z","end_date":"2026-08-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2421.1262469999997,"volume_24hr":1245.01,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":20.43069076538086,"normalized_volume":12.362853050231934,"liquidity":25094.3688,"open_interest":1047.709157,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"1591","slug":"arizona","label":"arizona"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"264","slug":"primaries","label":"Primaries"},{"id":"24","slug":"us-election","label":"USA Election"},{"id":"103933","slug":"arizona-primary","label":"Arizona Primary"},{"id":"105189","slug":"august-4-primaries","label":"August 4 Primaries"},{"id":"1101","slug":"us-presidential-election","label":"US Election"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Other","top_outcome_probability":0.5,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-14T00:21:37.248170Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-14T00:21:37.248170Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.210170Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/az-01-republican-primary-margin-of-victory-20260708152700439","chart_24h":[110.153156,110.153156,109.053156,109.053156,109.053156,79.153156,69.25315599999999,14.703156000000002,14.703156000000002,14.703156000000002,13.603156,811.423156,901.423156,901.423156,921.423156,921.423156,921.423156,921.423156,931.323156,934.623156,934.623156,1099.273156,1099.273156,1099.273156,1099.273156,1099.273156,1246.973156,1241.71,1241.71],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851455","event_id":"682108","slug":"will-jay-feely-win-the-az-01-republican-primary-by-2025-20260708152700441","question":"Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 20–25%?","group_item_title":"Feely 20–25%","description":"The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.275,0.725],"probability":0.275,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:28:52.487813Z","end_date":"2026-08-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1186.893169,"volume_24hr":1062.12,"prob_24h_change":-0.23199999999999998,"volume_24h_change":1002.0699999999999,"normalized_vol_24hr":21.174585342407227,"normalized_volume":14.05960464477539,"liquidity":6479.76409,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-14T00:25:29.620336Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-14T00:21:37.719332Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/az-01-republican-primary-margin-of-victory-20260708152700439/will-jay-feely-win-the-az-01-republican-primary-by-2025-20260708152700441","event_title":"AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.507,0.507,0.5065,0.5055,0.506,0.508,0.508,0.508,0.508,0.508,0.508,0.286,0.281,0.2815,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.2795,0.277,0.277,0.275,0.275,0.275,0.275,0.275,0.275]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851457","event_id":"682108","slug":"will-jay-feely-win-the-az-01-republican-primary-by-1015-20260708152700443","question":"Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 10–15%?","group_item_title":"Feely 10–15%","description":"The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.2665,0.7335],"probability":0.2665,"spread":0.511,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:29:10.228899Z","end_date":"2026-08-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":222.24885599999996,"volume_24hr":3.3,"prob_24h_change":0.08950000000000002,"volume_24h_change":1.0999999999999996,"normalized_vol_24hr":0.927598237991333,"normalized_volume":8.204154968261719,"liquidity":594.85425,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-14T00:25:29.620336Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-14T00:21:37.719332Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/az-01-republican-primary-margin-of-victory-20260708152700439/will-jay-feely-win-the-az-01-republican-primary-by-1015-20260708152700443","event_title":"AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.177,0.1745,0.173,0.1725,0.1715,0.1705,0.3325,0.2945,0.246,0.2415,0.236,0.3215,0.2965,0.2955,0.2835,0.2775,0.2675,0.2935,0.2905,0.281,0.278,0.283,0.283,0.282,0.272,0.2745,0.276,0.276,0.2665]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851461","event_id":"682108","slug":"will-joseph-chaplik-win-the-az-01-republican-primary-by-510-20260708152700447","question":"Will Joseph Chaplik win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 5–10%?","group_item_title":"Chaplik 5–10%","description":"The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.19,0.81],"probability":0.19,"spread":0.36,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:29:50.538577Z","end_date":"2026-08-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":249.88889999999995,"volume_24hr":3.3,"prob_24h_change":0.07,"volume_24h_change":1.0999999999999996,"normalized_vol_24hr":0.927598237991333,"normalized_volume":8.562105178833008,"liquidity":566.0785,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-14T00:25:29.620336Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-14T00:21:37.719332Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/az-01-republican-primary-margin-of-victory-20260708152700439/will-joseph-chaplik-win-the-az-01-republican-primary-by-510-20260708152700447","event_title":"AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.12,0.185,0.165,0.15,0.145,0.14,0.13,0.215,0.185,0.18,0.175,0.165,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.355,0.345,0.295,0.28,0.215,0.215,0.215,0.215,0.28,0.26,0.19,0.195]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851456","event_id":"682108","slug":"will-jay-feely-win-the-az-01-republican-primary-by-1520-20260708152700442","question":"Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 15–20%?","group_item_title":"Feely 15–20%","description":"The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.125,0.875],"probability":0.125,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:29:00.211204Z","end_date":"2026-08-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":115.74999999999997,"volume_24hr":1.11,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-22.190000000000005,"normalized_vol_24hr":0.24308426678180695,"normalized_volume":6.355279445648193,"liquidity":7636.9593,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-14T00:25:29.620336Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-13T23:36:14.260167Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/az-01-republican-primary-margin-of-victory-20260708152700439/will-jay-feely-win-the-az-01-republican-primary-by-1520-20260708152700442","event_title":"AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.125]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851462","event_id":"682108","slug":"will-joseph-chaplik-win-the-az-01-republican-primary-by-more-than-10-20260708152700448","question":"Will Joseph Chaplik win the AZ-01 Republican primary by more than 10%?","group_item_title":"Chaplik 10%+","description":"The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.085,0.915],"probability":0.085,"spread":0.17,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:30:01.756525Z","end_date":"2026-08-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":280.99666499999995,"volume_24hr":172.98,"prob_24h_change":-0.115,"volume_24h_change":170.78,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.603782653808594,"normalized_volume":8.928210258483887,"liquidity":326.7173,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-14T00:25:29.620336Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-14T00:21:37.719332Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/az-01-republican-primary-margin-of-victory-20260708152700439/will-joseph-chaplik-win-the-az-01-republican-primary-by-more-than-10-20260708152700448","event_title":"AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.2,0.19,0.185,0.19,0.195,0.18,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.285,0.345,0.355,0.275,0.305,0.31,0.28,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.11]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851460","event_id":"682108","slug":"will-joseph-chaplik-win-the-az-01-republican-primary-by-less-than-5-20260708152700446","question":"Will Joseph Chaplik win the AZ-01 Republican primary by less than 5%?","group_item_title":"Chaplik <5%","description":"The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0065,0.9935],"probability":0.0065,"spread":0.009,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:29:43.347998Z","end_date":"2026-08-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66.97040000000001,"volume_24hr":2.2,"prob_24h_change":-0.003,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":0.5898622870445251,"normalized_volume":4.992847442626953,"liquidity":7543.91899,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-14T00:24:06.855006Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-14T00:21:37.719332Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/az-01-republican-primary-margin-of-victory-20260708152700439/will-joseph-chaplik-win-the-az-01-republican-primary-by-less-than-5-20260708152700446","event_title":"AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.0095,0.0095,0.0095,0.0095,0.0095,0.0095,0.0095,0.0095,0.0095,0.0095,0.006,0.006,0.005,0.005,0.004,0.005,0.004,0.005]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851463","event_id":"682108","slug":"will-another-outcome-occur-in-the-az-01-republican-primary-20260708152700449","question":"Will another outcome occur in the AZ-01 Republican primary?","group_item_title":"Other","description":"The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.5,0.5],"probability":0.5,"spread":1.0,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:30:09.975693Z","end_date":"2026-08-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-13T03:17:53.494117Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/az-01-republican-primary-margin-of-victory-20260708152700439/will-another-outcome-occur-in-the-az-01-republican-primary-20260708152700449","event_title":"AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.5,0.5]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851454","event_id":"682108","slug":"will-jay-feely-win-the-az-01-republican-primary-by-at-least-25-20260708152700440","question":"Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by at least 25%?","group_item_title":"Feely 25%+","description":"The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.2705,0.7295],"probability":0.2705,"spread":0.505,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:28:48.668985Z","end_date":"2026-08-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":141.14510099999998,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.18300000000000002,"volume_24h_change":-2.2,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":6.891688346862793,"liquidity":519.25189,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-14T00:25:29.620336Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-14T00:21:37.719332Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/az-01-republican-primary-margin-of-victory-20260708152700439/will-jay-feely-win-the-az-01-republican-primary-by-at-least-25-20260708152700440","event_title":"AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.0875,0.0875,0.0875,0.0875,0.0875,0.0875,0.0875,0.0875,0.0875,0.0875,0.0875,0.326,0.3095,0.293,0.3085,0.3015,0.294,0.3145,0.1955,0.1965,0.1965,0.1935,0.27,0.271,0.2725,0.2705]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851458","event_id":"682108","slug":"will-jay-feely-win-the-az-01-republican-primary-by-510-20260708152700444","question":"Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 5–10%?","group_item_title":"Feely 5–10%","description":"The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.223,0.777],"probability":0.223,"spread":0.424,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:29:17.127827Z","end_date":"2026-08-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":51.320000000000014,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.05700000000000002,"volume_24h_change":-2.2,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":4.3926801681518555,"liquidity":540.84272,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-14T00:25:29.620336Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-14T00:21:37.719332Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/az-01-republican-primary-margin-of-victory-20260708152700439/will-jay-feely-win-the-az-01-republican-primary-by-510-20260708152700444","event_title":"AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.28,0.2615,0.2595,0.258,0.2395,0.2645,0.2375,0.2625,0.25,0.2515,0.2585,0.265,0.32,0.3195,0.2955,0.3035,0.2715,0.295,0.2955,0.2985,0.282,0.2715,0.271,0.2575,0.2175,0.232,0.25,0.27,0.2225]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2851459","event_id":"682108","slug":"will-jay-feely-win-the-az-01-republican-primary-by-less-than-5-20260708152700445","question":"Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by less than 5%?","group_item_title":"Feely <5%","description":"The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.12,0.88],"probability":0.12,"spread":0.12,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-08T22:29:29.184522Z","end_date":"2026-08-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":105.91315599999997,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":-13.603156,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":6.122420787811279,"liquidity":486.9178,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-14T00:25:29.620336Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-13T23:54:17.995287Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T22:33:22.248526Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/az-01-republican-primary-margin-of-victory-20260708152700439/will-jay-feely-win-the-az-01-republican-primary-by-less-than-5-20260708152700445","event_title":"AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.125,0.11,0.125,0.115,0.105,0.12,0.115,0.105,0.12,0.115,0.105,0.115,0.125,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.115,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.125,0.11,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.12]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/682108","as_of":"2026-07-14T00:28:12.339302Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory\" — top market at 28% probability across 10 outcomes","source_url":null}}