{"source":"polymarket","id":"689437","ticker":"grok-5-released-byptptpt-20260710195520919","slug":"grok-5-released-byptptpt-20260710195520919","title":"Grok 5 released by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGrok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/grok-4pt20-released-by-FREAnoCYA7aN.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/grok-4pt20-released-by-FREAnoCYA7aN.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-10T22:23:13.802184Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":112.221665,"volume_24hr":112.221665,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.360061168670654,"normalized_volume":4.558659076690674,"liquidity":2182.9511,"open_interest":57.901665,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"540","slug":"grok","label":"Grok"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"282","slug":"elon-musk","label":"Elon Musk"},{"id":"105579","slug":"ai-releases","label":"AI Releases"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.785,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.14500000000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":60.081664999999994,"updated_at":"2026-07-11T03:19:02.347355Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-11T03:19:02.347355Z","added_at":"2026-07-10T22:37:55.249686Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/grok-5-released-byptptpt-20260710195520919","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,99.361665,99.361665,99.361665,112.221665,112.221665],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2874991","event_id":"689437","slug":"will-grok-5-be-released-by-december-31-2026-20260710195520922","question":"Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"December 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGrok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.785,0.215],"probability":0.785,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-10T22:23:23.145950Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":60.081665,"volume_24hr":60.081664999999994,"prob_24h_change":0.14500000000000002,"volume_24h_change":60.081664999999994,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.973091125488281,"normalized_volume":4.743133068084717,"liquidity":1613.4142,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-11T03:19:02.462723Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-11T03:19:02.462723Z","added_at":"2026-07-10T22:37:55.370642Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/grok-5-released-byptptpt-20260710195520919/will-grok-5-be-released-by-december-31-2026-20260710195520922","event_title":"Grok 5 released by...?","chart_24h":[0.64,0.43,0.54,0.59,0.785,0.785]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2874990","event_id":"689437","slug":"will-grok-5-be-released-by-august-31-2026-20260710195520921","question":"Will Grok 5 be released by August 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGrok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.425,0.575],"probability":0.425,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-10T22:23:13.802184Z","end_date":"2026-08-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":52.14,"volume_24hr":52.14,"prob_24h_change":-0.29,"volume_24h_change":52.14,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.57532262802124,"normalized_volume":4.427271842956543,"liquidity":433.5753,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-11T03:19:13.359157Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-11T03:19:02.462723Z","added_at":"2026-07-10T22:37:55.370642Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/grok-5-released-byptptpt-20260710195520919/will-grok-5-be-released-by-august-31-2026-20260710195520921","event_title":"Grok 5 released by...?","chart_24h":[0.715,0.58,0.395,0.365,0.41,0.405,0.425]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2874989","event_id":"689437","slug":"will-grok-5-be-released-by-august-15-2026-20260710195520920","question":"Will Grok 5 be released by August 15, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 15","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGrok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.275,0.725],"probability":0.275,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-10T22:23:32.119516Z","end_date":"2026-08-15T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.11000000000000001,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":130.7086,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-11T03:19:13.359157Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-11T03:19:02.462723Z","added_at":"2026-07-10T22:37:55.370642Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/grok-5-released-byptptpt-20260710195520919/will-grok-5-be-released-by-august-15-2026-20260710195520920","event_title":"Grok 5 released by...?","chart_24h":[0.165,0.435,0.205,0.215,0.125,0.27,0.275]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/689437","as_of":"2026-07-11T03:22:30.892670Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Grok 5 released by...?\" — top market at 78% probability across 3 outcomes","source_url":null}}