{"source":"polymarket","id":"727312","ticker":"abu-musa-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-byptptpt-20260720011758214","slug":"abu-musa-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-byptptpt-20260720011758214","title":"Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.\n\nTemporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.\n\nAn announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.\n\nIf control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.\n\nIf control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/abumusa-a6fa11d696.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/abumusa-a6fa11d696.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-21T01:15:01.217756Z","end_date":"2026-08-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1380.771729,"volume_24hr":1313.871729,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":20.625869750976562,"normalized_volume":10.620882987976074,"liquidity":19140.07418,"open_interest":927.071728,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"102304","slug":"khamenei","label":"Khamenei"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"104005","slug":"iranian-leadership-regime","label":"Iran Regime"},{"id":"104039","slug":"trump-iran","label":"U.S. x Iran"},{"id":"104010","slug":"diplomacy-ceasefire","label":"Iran Ceasefire"},{"id":"104127","slug":"mojtaba-khamenei","label":"Mojtaba Khamenei"},{"id":"262","slug":"strait-of-hormuz","label":"Strait of Hormuz"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"August 31","top_outcome_probability":0.1015,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.1705,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":479.828397,"updated_at":"2026-07-22T05:46:01.027801Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-22T05:46:01.027801Z","added_at":"2026-07-21T01:31:34.690010Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/abu-musa-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-byptptpt-20260720011758214","chart_24h":[66.89999999999999,66.89999999999999,66.89999999999999,334.22,334.22,374.553332,374.553332,374.553332,374.553332,621.233332,701.233332,701.233332,701.233332,701.233332,701.233332,761.563332,761.563332,761.563332,761.563332,761.563332,781.563332,860.0167799999999,860.0167799999999,909.521729,949.521729,949.521729,949.521729,988.881729,988.881729,988.881729,988.881729,989.641729,989.641729,989.641729,989.641729,989.641729,989.641729,1143.381729,1293.871729,1293.871729,1293.871729,1313.871729],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3009229","event_id":"727312","slug":"abu-musa-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-august-31-20260720011758216","question":"Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?","group_item_title":"August 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.\n\nTemporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.\n\nAn announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.\n\nIf control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.\n\nIf control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.1015,0.8985],"probability":0.1015,"spread":0.075,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-21T01:15:05.327808Z","end_date":"2026-08-31T23:55:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":479.828397,"volume_24hr":479.828397,"prob_24h_change":-0.1705,"volume_24h_change":479.828397,"normalized_vol_24hr":15.252047538757324,"normalized_volume":10.59056282043457,"liquidity":5514.39207,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran","United Arab Emirates"],"updated_at":"2026-07-22T05:46:01.635405Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-22T05:46:01.635405Z","added_at":"2026-07-21T01:31:34.759569Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/abu-musa-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-byptptpt-20260720011758214/abu-musa-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-august-31-20260720011758216","event_title":"Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?","chart_24h":[0.28,0.275,0.215,0.225,0.18,0.18,0.039,0.0405,0.04,0.0405,0.039,0.0395,0.04,0.0415,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.158,0.068,0.071,0.107,0.0935,0.118,0.0975,0.111,0.1,0.088,0.111,0.124,0.11,0.1205,0.1115,0.1125,0.112,0.111,0.099,0.1005,0.103,0.1045]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3009228","event_id":"727312","slug":"abu-musa-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-july-31-20260720011758215","question":"Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?","group_item_title":"July 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.\n\nTemporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.\n\nAn announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.\n\nIf control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.\n\nIf control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0085,0.9915],"probability":0.0085,"spread":0.007,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-21T01:15:01.217756Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T23:55:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":900.943332,"volume_24hr":834.043332,"prob_24h_change":-0.1915,"volume_24h_change":767.143332,"normalized_vol_24hr":18.10038185119629,"normalized_volume":12.8579683303833,"liquidity":14268.00329,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran","United Arab Emirates"],"updated_at":"2026-07-22T05:15:03.734809Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-22T03:28:58.915676Z","added_at":"2026-07-21T01:31:34.759569Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/abu-musa-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-byptptpt-20260720011758214/abu-musa-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-july-31-20260720011758215","event_title":"Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?","chart_24h":[0.2,0.185,0.11,0.0205,0.0205,0.021,0.0165,0.0155,0.016,0.015,0.015,0.012,0.0125,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.0095,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085,0.0085]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/727312","as_of":"2026-07-22T05:47:12.380323Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?\" — top market at 1% probability across 2 outcomes","source_url":null}}