{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/730071","as_of":"2026-10-24T08:19:12.341006Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Fetterman leaves the Democrats by...?\" — 3 markets; highest \"December 31, 2026\" at 9% as of 2026-10-24 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/730071","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fetterman-leaves-the-democrats-before-the-midterms-20260720221037014"},"source":"polymarket","id":"730071","ticker":"fetterman-leaves-the-democrats-before-the-midterms-20260720221037014","slug":"fetterman-leaves-the-democrats-before-the-midterms-20260720221037014","title":"Fetterman leaves the Democrats by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman officially announces that he is leaving, or formally leaves, the Democratic Party by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor purposes of this market, \"Before the Midterms\" is defined to mean by November 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. \n\nAnnouncements from Fetterman that he will join the Republican Party, become an independent, join another political party, or otherwise cease to be a member of the Democratic Party will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Fetterman has formally left the Democratic Party will also suffice.\n\nStatements criticizing the Democratic Party, voting with Republicans, endorsing Republican candidates, describing himself as bipartisan or independent-minded, or expressing disagreement with Democratic Party positions will not qualify unless accompanied by an official announcement that he is leaving the Democratic Party or a consensus of credible reporting that he has formally left the Democratic Party.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/fetterman-leaves-the-democrats-by-june-30-N6p8u3VCeZ0C.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/fetterman-leaves-the-democrats-by-june-30-N6p8u3VCeZ0C.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-21T18:53:21.918570Z","end_date":"2027-01-03T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":49455.60855499999,"volume_24hr":763.495758,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":18.25322151184082,"normalized_volume":26.533979415893555,"liquidity":48229.45579,"open_interest":12603.536464,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"100199","slug":"senate-elections","label":"Senate"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"421","slug":"pennsylvania","label":"pennsylvania"},{"id":"102110","slug":"john-fetterman","label":"john fetterman"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.0885,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0015000000000000013,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":32.066666999999995,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T08:02:31.242944Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T08:02:31.242944Z","added_at":"2026-07-21T19:01:07.922380Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fetterman-leaves-the-democrats-before-the-midterms-20260720221037014","chart_24h":[481.909091,481.909091,481.909091,481.909091,481.909091,481.909091,481.909091,481.909091,481.909091,481.909091,481.909091,481.909091,481.909091,481.909091,481.909091,481.909091,481.909091,481.909091,481.909091,481.909091,481.909091,481.909091,681.429091,713.495758,713.495758,713.495758,713.495758,763.495758,763.495758,763.495758,763.495758],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":3,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"4426890","event_id":"730071","slug":"fetterman-leaves-the-democrats-by-december-31-2026","question":"Fetterman leaves the Democrats by December 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"December 31, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman officially announces that he is leaving, or formally leaves, the Democratic Party by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAnnouncements from Fetterman that he will join the Republican Party, become an independent, join another political party, or otherwise cease to be a member of the Democratic Party will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Fetterman has formally left the Democratic Party will also suffice.\n\nStatements criticizing the Democratic Party, voting with Republicans, endorsing Republican candidates, describing himself as bipartisan or independent-minded, or expressing disagreement with Democratic Party positions will not qualify unless accompanied by an official announcement that he is leaving the Democratic Party or a consensus of credible reporting that he has formally left the Democratic Party.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/fetterman-leaves-the-democrats-by-june-30-N6p8u3VCeZ0C.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/fetterman-leaves-the-democrats-by-june-30-N6p8u3VCeZ0C.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0885,0.9115],"probability":0.0885,"spread":0.001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-09T23:53:50Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":26853.362220999996,"volume_24hr":231.586667,"prob_24h_change":0.0015000000000000013,"volume_24h_change":32.066666999999995,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.705537796020508,"normalized_volume":30.513628005981445,"liquidity":32414.85529,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T07:15:35.502070Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T07:15:35.502070Z","added_at":"2026-09-10T00:23:24.858522Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fetterman-leaves-the-democrats-before-the-midterms-20260720221037014/fetterman-leaves-the-democrats-by-december-31-2026","event_title":"Fetterman leaves the Democrats by...?","chart_24h":[0.087,0.087,0.087,0.0875,0.088,0.0885]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3019823","event_id":"730071","slug":"fetterman-leaves-the-democrats-before-the-midterms-20260720221037014","question":"Fetterman leaves the Democrats before the midterms?","group_item_title":"November 2, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman officially announces that he is leaving, or formally leaves, the Democratic Party by November 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAnnouncements from Fetterman that he will join the Republican Party, become an independent, join another political party, or otherwise cease to be a member of the Democratic Party will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Fetterman has formally left the Democratic Party will also suffice.\n\nStatements criticizing the Democratic Party, voting with Republicans, endorsing Republican candidates, describing himself as bipartisan or independent-minded, or expressing disagreement with Democratic Party positions will not qualify unless accompanied by an official announcement that he is leaving the Democratic Party or a consensus of credible reporting that he has formally left the Democratic Party.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/fetterman-leaves-the-democrats-by-june-30-N6p8u3VCeZ0C.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/fetterman-leaves-the-democrats-by-june-30-N6p8u3VCeZ0C.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0035,0.9965],"probability":0.0035,"spread":0.001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-21T18:53:21.918570Z","end_date":"2026-11-03T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":21330.547242999997,"volume_24hr":50.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.6146368980407715,"normalized_volume":29.15138816833496,"liquidity":16711.56571,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T05:18:49.001022Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T05:18:49.001022Z","added_at":"2026-07-21T19:01:07.936856Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fetterman-leaves-the-democrats-before-the-midterms-20260720221037014/fetterman-leaves-the-democrats-before-the-midterms-20260720221037014","event_title":"Fetterman leaves the Democrats by...?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3722422","event_id":"730071","slug":"fetterman-leaves-the-democrats-between-the-midterms-and-convening-of-new-congress","question":"Fetterman leaves the Democrats between the midterms and convening of new Congress","group_item_title":"Between Nov. 3 and Jan. 3 12PM","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman officially announces that he is leaving, or formally leaves, the Democratic Party between November 3, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET, and January 3, 2027, at 11:59AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAnnouncements from Fetterman that he will join the Republican Party, become an independent, join another political party, or otherwise cease to be a member of the Democratic Party will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Fetterman has formally left the Democratic Party will also suffice.\n\nStatements criticizing the Democratic Party, voting with Republicans, endorsing Republican candidates, describing himself as bipartisan or independent-minded, or expressing disagreement with Democratic Party positions will not qualify unless accompanied by an official announcement that he is leaving the Democratic Party or a consensus of credible reporting that he has formally left the Democratic Party.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/fetterman-leaves-the-democrats-by-june-30-N6p8u3VCeZ0C.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/fetterman-leaves-the-democrats-by-june-30-N6p8u3VCeZ0C.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.17,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-08-19T15:00:18Z","end_date":"2027-01-03T23:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-09-10T23:27:22.793411Z","result":"no","volume":1271.699091,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":14.994295120239258,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T08:12:48.448335Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T08:02:31.971133Z","added_at":"2026-08-19T15:26:31.500102Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fetterman-leaves-the-democrats-before-the-midterms-20260720221037014/fetterman-leaves-the-democrats-between-the-midterms-and-convening-of-new-congress","event_title":"Fetterman leaves the Democrats by...?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]}]}