{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/73059","as_of":"2026-10-11T21:37:17.984015Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will Hezbollah disarm by...?\" — 3 markets; highest \"December 31\" at 8% as of 2026-10-11 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/73059","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31"},"source":"polymarket","id":"73059","ticker":"will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31","slug":"will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31","title":"Will Hezbollah disarm by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. \n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hezbollah-to-disarm-before-in-2025-n_fB929bMx99.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hezbollah-to-disarm-before-in-2025-n_fB929bMx99.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T18:16:48.979650Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3064956.8576529995,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":50.681861877441406,"liquidity":15702.71,"open_interest":25898.791806,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"849","slug":"lebanon","label":"Lebanon"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"114","slug":"syria","label":"Syria"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101794","slug":"foreign-policy","label":"Foreign Policy"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.085,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-11T21:36:36.980598Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-11T21:36:36.980598Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":3,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"1323083","event_id":"73059","slug":"will-hezbollah-disarm-by-december-31-632-848","question":"Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?","group_item_title":"December 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. \n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hezbollah-to-disarm-before-in-2025-n_fB929bMx99.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hezbollah-to-disarm-before-in-2025-n_fB929bMx99.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.085,0.915],"probability":0.085,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-03T00:03:57.432000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":2082508.5066040007,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":62.1039924621582,"liquidity":16319.2096,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Lebanon"],"updated_at":"2026-10-11T20:24:07.759479Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-11T20:24:07.759479Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31/will-hezbollah-disarm-by-december-31-632-848","event_title":"Will Hezbollah disarm by...?","chart_24h":[0.085,0.08,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.08,0.08,0.085,0.08,0.085,0.08,0.08,0.085,0.08,0.08,0.085,0.085]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1929172","event_id":"73059","slug":"will-hezbollah-disarm-by-april-30-343","question":"Will Hezbollah disarm by April 30?","group_item_title":"April 30","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. \n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hezbollah-to-disarm-before-in-2025-n_fB929bMx99.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hezbollah-to-disarm-before-in-2025-n_fB929bMx99.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-04-09T16:30:52.208003Z","end_date":"2026-03-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-05-01T06:46:50Z","result":"no","volume":75856.12826099995,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":37.04405975341797,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Lebanon"],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31/will-hezbollah-disarm-by-april-30-343","event_title":"Will Hezbollah disarm by...?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"665228","event_id":"73059","slug":"will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31","question":"Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?","group_item_title":"March 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. \n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hezbollah-to-disarm-before-in-2025-n_fB929bMx99.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hezbollah-to-disarm-before-in-2025-n_fB929bMx99.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2025-11-05T18:10:54.900000Z","end_date":"2026-03-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-04-01T07:54:21Z","result":"no","volume":906592.2227879986,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":55.207096099853516,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31/will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31","event_title":"Will Hezbollah disarm by...?","chart_24h":null}]}