{"source":"polymarket","id":"73130","ticker":"will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","slug":"will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","title":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-us-invade-iran-in-2025-0Eh3J0ku_Fbj.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-us-invade-iran-in-2025-0Eh3J0ku_Fbj.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T17:52:17.414000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":56850764.16095701,"volume_24hr":956201.6995789957,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":79.56661224365234,"normalized_volume":72.65953063964844,"liquidity":813149.4507,"open_interest":7939022.454948,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"104007","slug":"military-strikes","label":"Military Strikes"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.155,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.04000000000000001,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":523508.8461059955,"updated_at":"2026-08-05T14:24:47.358435Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-05T14:24:47.358435Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","chart_24h":[544349.6335960004,684447.4822530004,752257.344727,976883.6414190005,1015448.3857600006,988551.105392,962375.3683339999,961070.7654150001,960728.7531469997,1035875.631099,982099.0275660005,1012397.5676060003,1010524.1220520005,1039170.2724930008,1003530.3875370007,1005848.1450370006,1005999.4844470004,1006045.8600030006,979904.9018760008,978050.5315330005,974346.5962360005,1010733.8457920006,1011350.0899180006,964188.0574400004,971167.6527949959,949696.9117880006,1002739.0573700004],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"665374","event_id":"73130","slug":"will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","question":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-us-invade-iran-in-2025-0Eh3J0ku_Fbj.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-us-invade-iran-in-2025-0Eh3J0ku_Fbj.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.155,0.845],"probability":0.155,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T17:52:17.414000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":56850764.16095701,"volume_24hr":956201.6995789957,"prob_24h_change":-0.04000000000000001,"volume_24h_change":523508.8461059955,"normalized_vol_24hr":87.50497436523438,"normalized_volume":93.54266357421875,"liquidity":812589.4015,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United States","Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-08-05T14:24:48.349992Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-05T14:24:48.349992Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","event_title":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","chart_24h":[0.195,0.195,0.195,0.185,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.165,0.165,0.175,0.165,0.16,0.155,0.155,0.155,0.155,0.155,0.155,0.155,0.165,0.165,0.165,0.165,0.165,0.155]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/73130","as_of":"2026-08-05T14:37:51.797815Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?\" — top market at 16% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}