{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/743877","as_of":"2026-10-24T07:33:35.245967Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?\" — 7% as of 2026-10-24 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/743877","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-2-or-more-hurricanes-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-2026-20260721164140039"},"source":"polymarket","id":"743877","ticker":"will-2-or-more-hurricanes-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-2026-20260721164140039","slug":"will-2-or-more-hurricanes-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-2026-20260721164140039","title":"Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if at least 2 hurricane landfalls occur in the conterminous United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.\n\nA hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. \n\nIf a single storm makes landfall more than once within this area during this period, each landfall identified as a distinct landfall by the NHC is counted separately toward the total. A storm that briefly moves over open water and returns to make an additional landfall counts as a separate landfall only if the NHC's own reporting identifies it as such; a single continuous track that does not leave and re-strike land counts once.\n\nThis market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added to the count.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-2-or-more-hurricanes-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-2026-20260721163819000-R170eGjaZ8Xs.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-2-or-more-hurricanes-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-2026-20260721163819000-R170eGjaZ8Xs.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-24T16:06:04.070779Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T16:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2836.7816059999996,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":14.356963157653809,"liquidity":1378.20738,"open_interest":602.614839,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"87","slug":"climate","label":"climate"},{"id":"102023","slug":"hurricane","label":"hurricane"},{"id":"102186","slug":"hurricane-season","label":"Hurricane Season"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0745,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.00449999999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-38.28125,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T06:53:04.829049Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T06:53:04.829049Z","added_at":"2026-07-24T16:16:36.355611Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-2-or-more-hurricanes-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-2026-20260721164140039","chart_24h":[38.28125,38.28125,38.28125,38.28125,38.28125,38.28125,38.28125,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3083663","event_id":"743877","slug":"will-2-or-more-hurricanes-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-2026-20260721164140039","question":"Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if at least 2 hurricane landfalls occur in the conterminous United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.\n\nA hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. \n\nIf a single storm makes landfall more than once within this area during this period, each landfall identified as a distinct landfall by the NHC is counted separately toward the total. A storm that briefly moves over open water and returns to make an additional landfall counts as a separate landfall only if the NHC's own reporting identifies it as such; a single continuous track that does not leave and re-strike land counts once.\n\nThis market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added to the count.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-2-or-more-hurricanes-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-2026-20260721163819000-R170eGjaZ8Xs.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-2-or-more-hurricanes-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-2026-20260721163819000-R170eGjaZ8Xs.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0745,0.9255],"probability":0.0745,"spread":0.027,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-24T16:06:04.070779Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T16:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":2836.7816059999996,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.00449999999999999,"volume_24h_change":-38.28125,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":18.546733856201172,"liquidity":1295.69609,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T06:05:07.639647Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T06:05:07.639647Z","added_at":"2026-07-24T16:16:36.474990Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-2-or-more-hurricanes-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-2026-20260721164140039/will-2-or-more-hurricanes-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-2026-20260721164140039","event_title":"Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.07,0.0695,0.0705,0.07,0.07,0.069,0.0685,0.0705,0.0705,0.0845,0.082,0.0815,0.082,0.0815,0.0815,0.081,0.081,0.0765,0.076,0.076,0.0755,0.0755,0.0745,0.074,0.0745]}]}