{"source":"polymarket","id":"744088","ticker":"will-there-be-a-super-el-nino-this-winter-202627-20260721221614682","slug":"will-there-be-a-super-el-nino-this-winter-202627-20260721221614682","title":"Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?","description":"This market will resolve \"Yes\" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve \"No\". \n\nA Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).\n\nThis market may resolve \"Yes\" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve \"No\" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier \"No\" could contradict the final published data.\n\nThe first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-there-be-a-super-el-nino-this-winter-202627-20260721215346737-aDL6k5Xgb8nX.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-there-be-a-super-el-nino-this-winter-202627-20260721215346737-aDL6k5Xgb8nX.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-24T16:36:18.532072Z","end_date":"2027-04-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1079.42135,"volume_24hr":1079.42135,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":20.550935745239258,"normalized_volume":9.910493850708008,"liquidity":1288.42702,"open_interest":850.009999,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"87","slug":"climate","label":"climate"},{"id":"104180","slug":"weather-science","label":"Weather & Science"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.968,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.45799999999999996,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1079.42135,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T05:14:12.701100Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T05:14:12.701100Z","added_at":"2026-07-24T16:38:09.861255Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-a-super-el-nino-this-winter-202627-20260721221614682","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,20.0,20.0,20.0,40.0,41.35135,41.35135,41.35135,41.35135,41.35135,41.35135,41.35135,1019.4213500000001,1059.42135,1059.42135,1079.42135],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3086843","event_id":"744088","slug":"will-there-be-a-super-el-nino-this-winter-202627-20260721221614682","question":"Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve \"Yes\" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve \"No\". \n\nA Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).\n\nThis market may resolve \"Yes\" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve \"No\" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier \"No\" could contradict the final published data.\n\nThe first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-there-be-a-super-el-nino-this-winter-202627-20260721215346737-aDL6k5Xgb8nX.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-there-be-a-super-el-nino-this-winter-202627-20260721215346737-aDL6k5Xgb8nX.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.968,0.032],"probability":0.968,"spread":0.034,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-24T16:36:18.532072Z","end_date":"2027-04-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1079.42135,"volume_24hr":1079.42135,"prob_24h_change":0.45799999999999996,"volume_24h_change":1079.42135,"normalized_vol_24hr":22.868553161621094,"normalized_volume":13.549378395080566,"liquidity":1260.1968,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T05:14:49.333375Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T05:14:12.815897Z","added_at":"2026-07-24T16:38:09.923907Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-a-super-el-nino-this-winter-202627-20260721221614682/will-there-be-a-super-el-nino-this-winter-202627-20260721221614682","event_title":"Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?","chart_24h":[0.51,0.63,0.695,0.66,0.675,0.735,0.735,0.9795,0.985,0.9855,0.9485]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/744088","as_of":"2026-07-25T05:24:52.241911Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?\" — top market at 97% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}