{"source":"polymarket","id":"759222","ticker":"will-iran-target-ukraine-byptptpt-20260727234956916","slug":"will-iran-target-ukraine-byptptpt-20260727234956916","title":"Will Iran target Ukraine by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Ukraine through a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Ukraine. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Ukraine if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of Ukraine, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-iran-target-ukraine-byptptpt-20260727234956916-D7vlTc4fUJhx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-iran-target-ukraine-byptptpt-20260727234956916-D7vlTc4fUJhx.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-28T03:28:40.978237Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6894.978525999999,"volume_24hr":6894.978526,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":26.44050407409668,"normalized_volume":14.283970832824707,"liquidity":36940.87587,"open_interest":3486.497366,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"464","slug":"military-action","label":"Military Actions"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"September 30","top_outcome_probability":0.07,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1310.3267850000002,"updated_at":"2026-07-28T11:31:21.290240Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-28T11:31:21.290240Z","added_at":"2026-07-28T03:47:02.821330Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-ukraine-byptptpt-20260727234956916","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2000.0,2020.1,2392.75,2871.981427,3018.330717,3018.330717,3018.330717,3568.830717,3954.247367],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3145330","event_id":"759222","slug":"will-iran-target-ukraine-by-september-30-2026-20260727234956918","question":"Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"September 30","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Ukraine through a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Ukraine. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Ukraine if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of Ukraine, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.07,0.93],"probability":0.07,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-28T03:28:40.978237Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1310.326785,"volume_24hr":1310.3267850000002,"prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":1310.3267850000002,"normalized_vol_24hr":18.952762603759766,"normalized_volume":11.862164497375488,"liquidity":14821.0683,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-28T11:32:16.211643Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-28T11:31:21.345155Z","added_at":"2026-07-28T03:47:02.899226Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-ukraine-byptptpt-20260727234956916/will-iran-target-ukraine-by-september-30-2026-20260727234956918","event_title":"Will Iran target Ukraine by...?","chart_24h":[0.065,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.065,0.075,0.07,0.07]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3145329","event_id":"759222","slug":"will-iran-target-ukraine-by-august-31-2026-20260727234956917","question":"Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Ukraine through a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Ukraine. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Ukraine if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of Ukraine, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0495,0.9505],"probability":0.0495,"spread":0.011,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-28T03:28:43.895739Z","end_date":"2026-08-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6070.184951999999,"volume_24hr":6070.184952,"prob_24h_change":-0.0005000000000000004,"volume_24h_change":6070.184952,"normalized_vol_24hr":29.985403060913086,"normalized_volume":18.76727867126465,"liquidity":26015.20037,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-28T11:32:16.211643Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-28T11:31:21.345155Z","added_at":"2026-07-28T03:47:02.899226Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-ukraine-byptptpt-20260727234956916/will-iran-target-ukraine-by-august-31-2026-20260727234956917","event_title":"Will Iran target Ukraine by...?","chart_24h":[0.05,0.055,0.055,0.075,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.045,0.05,0.045]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/759222","as_of":"2026-07-28T11:32:27.174683Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will Iran target Ukraine by...?\" — top market at 5% probability across 2 outcomes","source_url":null}}