{"source":"polymarket","id":"773585","ticker":"will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-august-20260728182410863","slug":"will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-august-20260728182410863","title":"Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.\n\nA hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.\n\nThis market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-august-20260728182410863-UDhZUfDZP7--.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-august-20260728182410863-UDhZUfDZP7--.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-30T18:38:40.218640Z","end_date":"2026-09-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":615.441576,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.404938697814941,"liquidity":152.1877,"open_interest":259.876679,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"87","slug":"climate","label":"climate"},{"id":"102023","slug":"hurricane","label":"hurricane"},{"id":"102186","slug":"hurricane-season","label":"Hurricane Season"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.265,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.035,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-08-03T14:38:49.674820Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-03T14:38:49.674820Z","added_at":"2026-07-30T18:46:53.258100Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-august-20260728182410863","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3228860","event_id":"773585","slug":"will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-august-20260728182410863","question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.\n\nA hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.\n\nThis market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-august-20260728182410863-UDhZUfDZP7--.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-august-20260728182410863-UDhZUfDZP7--.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.265,0.735],"probability":0.265,"spread":0.11,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-30T18:38:40.218640Z","end_date":"2026-09-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":615.441576,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.035,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":12.10749626159668,"liquidity":146.1377,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-03T14:18:15.623031Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-03T14:15:40.120860Z","added_at":"2026-07-30T18:46:53.721369Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-august-20260728182410863/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-august-20260728182410863","event_title":"Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?","chart_24h":[0.23,0.22,0.23,0.215,0.22,0.215,0.215,0.195,0.195,0.225,0.25,0.23,0.235,0.235,0.245,0.24,0.235,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.245,0.24,0.235,0.24,0.245]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/773585","as_of":"2026-08-03T14:41:22.199806Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?\" — top market at 26% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}