{"source":"polymarket","id":"774230","ticker":"will-super-typhoon-dolphin-make-landfall-at-category-4-strength-or-higher-20260730204039278","slug":"will-super-typhoon-dolphin-make-landfall-at-category-4-strength-or-higher-20260730204039278","title":"Will Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Category 4 strength or higher?","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall. \n\nThe single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.\n\nJMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.\n\nThis market resolves \"No\" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-super-typhoon-dolphin-make-landfall-at-category-4-strength-or-higher-202607-1bxynqpzFPUv.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-super-typhoon-dolphin-make-landfall-at-category-4-strength-or-higher-202607-1bxynqpzFPUv.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-30T21:00:23.552110Z","end_date":"2026-08-16T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":28.2321,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"102434","slug":"asia","label":"Asia"},{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"87","slug":"climate","label":"climate"},{"id":"102023","slug":"hurricane","label":"hurricane"},{"id":"105850","slug":"typhoon-dolphin","label":"Typhoon Dolphin"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.38,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.11499999999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-31T02:12:29.608340Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-31T02:12:29.608340Z","added_at":"2026-07-30T21:30:08.714340Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-super-typhoon-dolphin-make-landfall-at-category-4-strength-or-higher-20260730204039278","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3231689","event_id":"774230","slug":"will-super-typhoon-dolphin-make-landfall-at-category-4-strength-or-higher-20260730204039278","question":"Will Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Category 4 strength or higher?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall. \n\nThe single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.\n\nJMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.\n\nThis market resolves \"No\" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-super-typhoon-dolphin-make-landfall-at-category-4-strength-or-higher-202607-1bxynqpzFPUv.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-super-typhoon-dolphin-make-landfall-at-category-4-strength-or-higher-202607-1bxynqpzFPUv.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.38,0.62],"probability":0.38,"spread":0.7,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-30T21:00:23.552110Z","end_date":"2026-08-16T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.11499999999999999,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":22.7721,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-31T00:43:45.513912Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-31T00:43:45.513912Z","added_at":"2026-07-30T21:30:08.803516Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-super-typhoon-dolphin-make-landfall-at-category-4-strength-or-higher-20260730204039278/will-super-typhoon-dolphin-make-landfall-at-category-4-strength-or-higher-20260730204039278","event_title":"Will Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Category 4 strength or higher?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.495]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/774230","as_of":"2026-07-31T02:44:38.895050Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Category 4 strength or higher?\" — top market at 38% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}