{"source":"polymarket","id":"778946","ticker":"how-many-ships-transit-bab-el-mandeb-strait-week-of-august-3-20260730202018839","slug":"how-many-ships-transit-bab-el-mandeb-strait-week-of-august-3-20260730202018839","title":"How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?","description":"This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-31T22:23:47.737070Z","end_date":"2026-08-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":110.095,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"309","slug":"oil","label":"Oil"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"738","slug":"yemen","label":"Yemen"},{"id":"104139","slug":"hormuz","label":"Hormuz"},{"id":"104134","slug":"tanker","label":"tanker"},{"id":"582","slug":"houthis","label":"Houthis"},{"id":"583","slug":"shipping","label":"shipping"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"105617","slug":"bab-el-mandeb","label":"Bab el-Mandeb"},{"id":"262","slug":"strait-of-hormuz","label":"Strait of Hormuz"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"220+","top_outcome_probability":0.48,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.015000000000000013,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-08-01T06:23:54.926550Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T06:23:54.926550Z","added_at":"2026-07-31T22:33:35.377416Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-bab-el-mandeb-strait-week-of-august-3-20260730202018839","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3249241","event_id":"778946","slug":"will-220-or-more-ships-transit-the-bab-el-mandeb-strait-between-august-3-august-9-20260730202038160","question":"Will 220 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9?","group_item_title":"220+","description":"This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.48,0.52],"probability":0.48,"spread":0.88,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-31T22:24:02.004904Z","end_date":"2026-08-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.015000000000000013,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":15.0552,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Yemen","Djibouti"],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T06:23:55.166686Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T06:23:55.166686Z","added_at":"2026-07-31T22:33:35.433793Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-bab-el-mandeb-strait-week-of-august-3-20260730202018839/will-220-or-more-ships-transit-the-bab-el-mandeb-strait-between-august-3-august-9-20260730202038160","event_title":"How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.48]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3249239","event_id":"778946","slug":"will-200-219-ships-transit-the-bab-el-mandeb-strait-between-august-3-august-9-20260730202038159","question":"Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9?","group_item_title":"200-219","description":"This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.475,0.525],"probability":0.475,"spread":0.83,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-31T22:24:00.949321Z","end_date":"2026-08-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.020000000000000018,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":25.8337,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Yemen"],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T06:23:55.166686Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T06:23:55.166686Z","added_at":"2026-07-31T22:33:35.433793Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-bab-el-mandeb-strait-week-of-august-3-20260730202018839/will-200-219-ships-transit-the-bab-el-mandeb-strait-between-august-3-august-9-20260730202038159","event_title":"How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.47,0.465,0.465,0.475]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3249237","event_id":"778946","slug":"will-fewer-than-180-ships-transit-the-bab-el-mandeb-strait-between-august-3-august-9-20260730202038157","question":"Will fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9?","group_item_title":"<180","description":"This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.47,0.53],"probability":0.47,"spread":0.82,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-31T22:23:47.737070Z","end_date":"2026-08-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.025000000000000022,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":15.93,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Yemen","Djibouti"],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T06:24:25.648269Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T06:23:55.166686Z","added_at":"2026-07-31T22:33:35.433793Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-bab-el-mandeb-strait-week-of-august-3-20260730202018839/will-fewer-than-180-ships-transit-the-bab-el-mandeb-strait-between-august-3-august-9-20260730202038157","event_title":"How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.485,0.5,0.475,0.47]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3249238","event_id":"778946","slug":"will-180-199-ships-transit-the-bab-el-mandeb-strait-between-august-3-august-9-20260730202038158","question":"Will 180-199 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9?","group_item_title":"180-199","description":"This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.45,0.55],"probability":0.45,"spread":0.84,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-31T22:23:53.861341Z","end_date":"2026-08-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.04999999999999999,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":20.363,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Yemen","Djibouti"],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T06:24:25.648269Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T06:23:55.166686Z","added_at":"2026-07-31T22:33:35.433793Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-bab-el-mandeb-strait-week-of-august-3-20260730202018839/will-180-199-ships-transit-the-bab-el-mandeb-strait-between-august-3-august-9-20260730202038158","event_title":"How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.46,0.455,0.445,0.45]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/778946","as_of":"2026-08-01T06:54:26.217016Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?\" — top market at 48% probability across 4 outcomes","source_url":null}}