{"source":"polymarket","id":"779602","ticker":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118","title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-iran-strike-a-gulf-state-on-dw7980wl77hu.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-iran-strike-a-gulf-state-on-dw7980wl77hu.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:33:31.589629Z","end_date":"2026-08-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8243.471362,"volume_24hr":8243.471362,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":34.400123596191406,"normalized_volume":18.53254508972168,"liquidity":218405.7335,"open_interest":6094.864684000002,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"637","slug":"qatar","label":"qatar"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"308","slug":"saudi-arabia","label":"saudi arabia"},{"id":"104010","slug":"diplomacy-ceasefire","label":"Iran Ceasefire"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"August 2","top_outcome_probability":0.41,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.015000000000000013,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":491.83072200000015,"updated_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:39.105020Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:39.105020Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.441921Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118","chart_24h":[2880.273892,3018.087224,7587.4819880000005,8243.471362],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253005","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-2-2026-20260801004719119","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 2, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 2","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.41,0.59],"probability":0.41,"spread":0.1,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:33:58.355434Z","end_date":"2026-08-02T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":691.593558,"volume_24hr":691.5935580000001,"prob_24h_change":-0.015000000000000013,"volume_24h_change":491.83072200000015,"normalized_vol_24hr":19.5810546875,"normalized_volume":12.550544738769531,"liquidity":552.7539,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T08:04:07.555307Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:39.137684Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-2-2026-20260801004719119","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.425,0.3,0.41]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253007","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-4-2026-20260801004719121","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 4, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 4","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.375,0.625],"probability":0.375,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:34:16.661895Z","end_date":"2026-08-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":255.88210400000003,"volume_24hr":255.88210400000003,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":185.89210400000002,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.09260368347168,"normalized_volume":9.032703399658203,"liquidity":3235.6733,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T08:04:07.555307Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:39.137684Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-4-2026-20260801004719121","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.375,0.375]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253006","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-3-2026-20260801004719120","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 3, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 3","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.35,0.65],"probability":0.35,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:33:53.551175Z","end_date":"2026-08-03T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":183.90583600000002,"volume_24hr":183.90583600000002,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.472031593322754,"normalized_volume":7.993991851806641,"liquidity":2495.5258,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:39.137684Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:39.137684Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-3-2026-20260801004719120","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253008","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-5-2026-20260801004719122","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 5, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 5","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.345,0.655],"probability":0.345,"spread":0.07,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:34:09.612198Z","end_date":"2026-08-05T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":60.0,"volume_24hr":60.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.735528945922852,"normalized_volume":4.958113670349121,"liquidity":3758.7575,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:57.120220Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T07:42:46.249073Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-5-2026-20260801004719122","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.35,0.35,0.345]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253014","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-10-2026-20260801004719127","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 10, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 10","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.34,0.66],"probability":0.34,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:34:02.397867Z","end_date":"2026-08-10T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":200.19,"volume_24hr":200.19,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":200.19,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.878629684448242,"normalized_volume":8.25460147857666,"liquidity":6224.0716,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:57.120220Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T07:42:46.249073Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-10-2026-20260801004719127","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.34,0.345,0.34]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253009","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-6-2026-20260801004719123","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 6, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 6","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.325,0.675],"probability":0.325,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:34:13.640833Z","end_date":"2026-08-06T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":80.1,"volume_24hr":80.1,"prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":20.099999999999994,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.844523429870605,"normalized_volume":5.6689276695251465,"liquidity":1184.0886,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T07:16:25.057970Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T07:16:07.508094Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-6-2026-20260801004719123","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.33,0.33,0.325]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253015","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-11-2026-20260801004719128","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 11, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 11","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.3,0.7],"probability":0.3,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:34:19.702959Z","end_date":"2026-08-11T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":226.79000000000002,"volume_24hr":226.79,"prob_24h_change":0.015000000000000013,"volume_24h_change":226.79,"normalized_vol_24hr":13.48867416381836,"normalized_volume":8.645611763000488,"liquidity":1933.2307,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T07:19:22.260581Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T07:16:07.508094Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-11-2026-20260801004719128","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.285,0.3]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253010","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-7-2026-20260801004719124","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 7, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 7","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.295,0.705],"probability":0.295,"spread":0.07,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:33:47.275635Z","end_date":"2026-08-07T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":60.0,"volume_24hr":60.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.735528945922852,"normalized_volume":4.958113670349121,"liquidity":181.4233,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T03:57:18.539674Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T03:57:18.539674Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-7-2026-20260801004719124","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253013","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-9-2026-20260801004719126","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 9, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 9","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.29,0.71],"probability":0.29,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:33:52.315776Z","end_date":"2026-08-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":290.899564,"volume_24hr":290.899564,"prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":259.93,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.749224662780762,"normalized_volume":9.453566551208496,"liquidity":5999.4828,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:57.120220Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T07:42:46.249073Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-9-2026-20260801004719126","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.285,0.285,0.29]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253016","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-12-2026-20260801004719129","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 12, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 12","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.285,0.715],"probability":0.285,"spread":0.07,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:33:40.367526Z","end_date":"2026-08-12T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":75.03125,"volume_24hr":75.03125,"prob_24h_change":0.04999999999999999,"volume_24h_change":75.03125,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.586714744567871,"normalized_volume":5.5036845207214355,"liquidity":7872.7587,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T08:04:07.555307Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:39.137684Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-12-2026-20260801004719129","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.235,0.285,0.285]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253034","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-30-2026-20260801004719147","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 30","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.285,0.715],"probability":0.285,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:34:06.432976Z","end_date":"2026-08-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":661.59,"volume_24hr":661.59,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":498.49,"normalized_vol_24hr":19.316776275634766,"normalized_volume":12.38115406036377,"liquidity":8231.6757,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T08:04:07.555307Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:39.137684Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-30-2026-20260801004719147","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.285,0.29,0.285]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253012","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-8-2026-20260801004719125","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 8, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 8","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.275,0.725],"probability":0.275,"spread":0.07,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:33:59.378376Z","end_date":"2026-08-08T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":16.129031,"volume_24hr":16.129031,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":3.693986654281616,"normalized_volume":2.367673397064209,"liquidity":220.9051,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T03:57:18.539674Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T03:57:18.539674Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-8-2026-20260801004719125","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253019","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-15-2026-20260801004719132","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 15, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 15","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.275,0.725],"probability":0.275,"spread":0.05,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:33:45.219061Z","end_date":"2026-08-15T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":139.290321,"volume_24hr":139.290321,"prob_24h_change":0.10000000000000003,"volume_24h_change":139.290321,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.187379837036133,"normalized_volume":7.170589447021484,"liquidity":9319.6976,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T08:04:07.555307Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:39.137684Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-15-2026-20260801004719132","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.175,0.275,0.275]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253024","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-20-2026-20260801004719137","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 20, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 20","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.26,0.74],"probability":0.26,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:33:44.206734Z","end_date":"2026-08-20T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":453.78,"volume_24hr":453.78,"prob_24h_change":-0.07500000000000001,"volume_24h_change":271.28999999999996,"normalized_vol_24hr":17.14344596862793,"normalized_volume":10.988150596618652,"liquidity":10940.5038,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:39.137684Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:39.137684Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-20-2026-20260801004719137","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.335,0.26,0.26]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253021","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-17-2026-20260801004719134","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 17","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.255,0.745],"probability":0.255,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:33:31.589629Z","end_date":"2026-08-17T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":100.1,"volume_24hr":100.1,"prob_24h_change":-0.015000000000000013,"volume_24h_change":100.1,"normalized_vol_24hr":9.753804206848145,"normalized_volume":6.251734256744385,"liquidity":3019.4665,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:57.120220Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T07:42:46.249073Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-17-2026-20260801004719134","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.27,0.275,0.255]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253026","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-22-2026-20260801004719139","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 22, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 22","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.255,0.745],"probability":0.255,"spread":0.07,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:33:50.566243Z","end_date":"2026-08-22T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":390.16,"volume_24hr":390.16,"prob_24h_change":0.1,"volume_24h_change":270.16,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.309545516967773,"normalized_volume":10.453659057617188,"liquidity":12746.766,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:57.120220Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:39.137684Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-22-2026-20260801004719139","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.155,0.31,0.26,0.255]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253017","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-13-2026-20260801004719130","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 13, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 13","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.25,0.75],"probability":0.25,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:33:35.466093Z","end_date":"2026-08-13T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":151.285184,"volume_24hr":151.285184,"prob_24h_change":0.04000000000000001,"volume_24h_change":141.285184,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.56177043914795,"normalized_volume":7.410556316375732,"liquidity":2002.7486,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T07:19:22.260581Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T07:16:07.508094Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-13-2026-20260801004719130","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.21,0.25]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253025","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-21-2026-20260801004719138","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 21, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 21","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.245,0.755],"probability":0.245,"spread":0.07,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:34:02.666973Z","end_date":"2026-08-21T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":190.1,"volume_24hr":190.1,"prob_24h_change":0.04999999999999999,"volume_24h_change":30.099999999999994,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.629987716674805,"normalized_volume":8.095233917236328,"liquidity":3869.7313,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T07:19:22.260581Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T07:16:07.508094Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-21-2026-20260801004719138","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.195,0.31,0.245]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253027","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-23-2026-20260801004719140","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 23, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 23","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.245,0.755],"probability":0.245,"spread":0.05,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:34:18.684074Z","end_date":"2026-08-23T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":382.81,"volume_24hr":382.81000000000006,"prob_24h_change":0.08499999999999999,"volume_24h_change":262.81000000000006,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.206050872802734,"normalized_volume":10.387324333190918,"liquidity":11777.4654,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:57.120220Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:39.137684Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-23-2026-20260801004719140","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.16,0.25,0.25,0.245]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253020","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-16-2026-20260801004719133","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 16, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 16","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.24,0.76],"probability":0.24,"spread":0.08,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:33:41.362729Z","end_date":"2026-08-16T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":191.464284,"volume_24hr":191.464284,"prob_24h_change":0.044999999999999984,"volume_24h_change":191.464284,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.664219856262207,"normalized_volume":8.117175102233887,"liquidity":9070.4519,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T08:04:07.555307Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:39.137684Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-16-2026-20260801004719133","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.195,0.24,0.24]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253029","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-25-2026-20260801004719142","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 25, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 25","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.24,0.76],"probability":0.24,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:33:32.633797Z","end_date":"2026-08-25T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":451.65250000000003,"volume_24hr":451.6525,"prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":255.34999999999997,"normalized_vol_24hr":17.117185592651367,"normalized_volume":10.971319198608398,"liquidity":6499.4875,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:57.120220Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:39.137684Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-25-2026-20260801004719142","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.245,0.245,0.24]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253030","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-26-2026-20260801004719143","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 26, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 26","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.24,0.76],"probability":0.24,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:33:37.502128Z","end_date":"2026-08-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":441.104641,"volume_24hr":441.104641,"prob_24h_change":0.10499999999999998,"volume_24h_change":256.3875,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.985443115234375,"normalized_volume":10.886877059936523,"liquidity":6325.2023,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:57.120220Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T07:42:46.249073Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-26-2026-20260801004719143","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.135,0.3,0.245,0.24]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253031","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-27-2026-20260801004719144","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 27, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 27","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.24,0.76],"probability":0.24,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:33:32.905625Z","end_date":"2026-08-27T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":599.778568,"volume_24hr":599.778568,"prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":364.78856799999994,"normalized_vol_24hr":18.7387638092041,"normalized_volume":12.010674476623535,"liquidity":6550.2782,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:57.120220Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T07:42:46.249073Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-27-2026-20260801004719144","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.245,0.245,0.24]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253028","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-24-2026-20260801004719141","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 24, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 24","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.235,0.765],"probability":0.235,"spread":0.07,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:34:11.607827Z","end_date":"2026-08-24T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":393.679838,"volume_24hr":393.679838,"prob_24h_change":0.10999999999999999,"volume_24h_change":253.68555400000002,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.358535766601562,"normalized_volume":10.48505973815918,"liquidity":4896.8203,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T07:19:22.260581Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T07:16:07.508094Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-24-2026-20260801004719141","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.125,0.28,0.235]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253035","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-31-2026-20260801004719148","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.235,0.765],"probability":0.235,"spread":0.05,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:34:27.067874Z","end_date":"2026-08-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":375.855554,"volume_24hr":375.855554,"prob_24h_change":0.004999999999999977,"volume_24h_change":160.2,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.106597900390625,"normalized_volume":10.323578834533691,"liquidity":404.2112,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T07:19:22.260581Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T07:16:07.508094Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-31-2026-20260801004719148","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.23,0.235]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253018","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-14-2026-20260801004719131","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 14, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 14","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.23,0.77],"probability":0.23,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:33:38.563621Z","end_date":"2026-08-14T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":130.099129,"volume_24hr":130.099129,"prob_24h_change":0.04000000000000001,"volume_24h_change":120.099129,"normalized_vol_24hr":10.882805824279785,"normalized_volume":6.975371837615967,"liquidity":15878.7826,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T08:04:07.555307Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:39.137684Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-14-2026-20260801004719131","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.19,0.23,0.23]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253022","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-18-2026-20260801004719135","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 18","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.23,0.77],"probability":0.23,"spread":0.08,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:33:33.399371Z","end_date":"2026-08-18T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":40.1,"volume_24hr":40.1,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":40.1,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.32084321975708,"normalized_volume":4.051366329193115,"liquidity":3888.8644,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T07:19:22.260581Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T07:16:07.508094Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-18-2026-20260801004719135","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.23,0.23]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253023","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-19-2026-20260801004719136","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 19, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 19","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.23,0.77],"probability":0.23,"spread":0.08,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:33:43.415874Z","end_date":"2026-08-19T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":40.1,"volume_24hr":40.1,"prob_24h_change":0.07,"volume_24h_change":40.1,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.32084321975708,"normalized_volume":4.051366329193115,"liquidity":3882.5258,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T07:19:22.260581Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T07:16:07.508094Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-19-2026-20260801004719136","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.16,0.23,0.23]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253033","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-29-2026-20260801004719146","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 29, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 29","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.225,0.775],"probability":0.225,"spread":0.07,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:34:05.685770Z","end_date":"2026-08-29T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":388.22,"volume_24hr":388.22,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":248.12000000000003,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.282386779785156,"normalized_volume":10.436251640319824,"liquidity":7916.9628,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:39.137684Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T08:01:39.137684Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-29-2026-20260801004719146","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.225,0.225,0.225]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3253032","event_id":"779602","slug":"will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-28-2026-20260801004719145","question":"Will Iran target a Arab country on August 28, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 28","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nQualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at a Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of a Arab country, including any internal waters.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.215,0.785],"probability":0.215,"spread":0.07,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-01T02:33:50.300351Z","end_date":"2026-08-28T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":581.7800000000001,"volume_24hr":581.7800000000001,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":207.47000000000008,"normalized_vol_24hr":18.56102180480957,"normalized_volume":11.896750450134277,"liquidity":6257.2216,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-01T07:19:22.260581Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T07:16:07.508094Z","added_at":"2026-08-01T02:59:49.471795Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-onptptpt-20260801004719118/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-28-2026-20260801004719145","event_title":"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?","chart_24h":[0.215,0.215]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/779602","as_of":"2026-08-01T08:33:01.406421Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will Iran target a Arab country on...?\" — top market at 41% probability across 30 outcomes","source_url":null}}