{"source":"polymarket","id":"79050","ticker":"will-a-chinese-ai-model-become-1-by-june-30","slug":"will-a-chinese-ai-model-become-1-by-june-30","title":"Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nIf a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-chinese-model-become-1-before-april-CdNmAqEvlo_e.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-chinese-model-become-1-before-april-CdNmAqEvlo_e.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-12T21:42:34.285699Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":257168.34647200003,"volume_24hr":7220.310676,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":25.087696075439453,"normalized_volume":35.23179244995117,"liquidity":22363.48642,"open_interest":36958.68148,"categories":["Politics","Business","Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"107","slug":"business","label":"Business"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0225,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.002999999999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":7213.800676,"updated_at":"2026-05-30T21:25:42.492872Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-30T21:25:42.492872Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-chinese-ai-model-become-1-by-june-30","chart_24h":[6.51,6.51,6.51,6.51,6.51,6.51,6.51,6.51,6.51,6.51,558.97,558.97,858.97,858.97,910.03,910.03,913.55,913.55,913.55,913.55,913.55,913.55,913.55,6913.55,6913.55,6914.708476,7065.310676,7220.310676,7220.310676,7220.310676,7220.310676,7220.310676,7220.310676,7220.310676],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"676803","event_id":"79050","slug":"will-a-chinese-ai-model-become-1-by-june-30","question":"Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? ","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nIf a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-chinese-model-become-1-before-april-CdNmAqEvlo_e.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-chinese-model-become-1-before-april-CdNmAqEvlo_e.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0225,0.9775],"probability":0.0225,"spread":0.003,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-12T21:32:20.789605Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":257168.34647200003,"volume_24hr":7220.310676,"prob_24h_change":0.002999999999999999,"volume_24h_change":7213.800676,"normalized_vol_24hr":26.067092895507812,"normalized_volume":45.531219482421875,"liquidity":22505.92717,"categories":["Politics","Business","Science and Technology"],"updated_at":"2026-05-30T18:32:24.316728Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-30T18:29:35.244573Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-chinese-ai-model-become-1-by-june-30/will-a-chinese-ai-model-become-1-by-june-30","event_title":"Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?","chart_24h":[0.0195,0.024,0.0245,0.0245,0.0245,0.025,0.0245,0.024,0.0235,0.0225,0.022,0.0225]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/79050","as_of":"2026-05-30T21:29:07.543211Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?\" — top market at 2% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}