{"source":"polymarket","id":"798727","ticker":"farsi-hengam-hormuz-or-kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-byptptpt-20260804165426109","slug":"farsi-hengam-hormuz-or-kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-byptptpt-20260804165426109","title":"Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.\n\n\"No longer under the control of Iran\" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.\n\nTemporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.\n\nAn announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.\n\nIf control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.\n\nIf control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/farsi-hengam-hormuz-or-kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-byptptpt-202-uzxohy8K4dgg.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/farsi-hengam-hormuz-or-kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-byptptpt-202-uzxohy8K4dgg.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-05T00:26:12.631498Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2110.110237,"volume_24hr":2110.1102370000003,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":25.903470993041992,"normalized_volume":13.354264259338379,"liquidity":10106.11115,"open_interest":1166.399999,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"309","slug":"oil","label":"Oil"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"102305","slug":"us-iran","label":"US-Iran"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"104039","slug":"trump-iran","label":"U.S. x Iran"},{"id":"104010","slug":"diplomacy-ceasefire","label":"Iran Ceasefire"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"September 30","top_outcome_probability":0.135,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.33,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":20.0,"updated_at":"2026-08-05T05:48:27.686142Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-05T05:48:27.686142Z","added_at":"2026-08-05T01:03:49.544409Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/farsi-hengam-hormuz-or-kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-byptptpt-20260804165426109","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,1561.65,1561.65,1561.65,2069.702075,2110.1102370000003],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3350268","event_id":"798727","slug":"will-farsi-hengam-hormuz-or-kharg-island-no-longer-be-under-iranian-control-by-september-30-2026-20260804165426111","question":"Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"September 30","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.\n\n\"No longer under the control of Iran\" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.\n\nTemporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.\n\nAn announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.\n\nIf control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.\n\nIf control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.135,0.865],"probability":0.135,"spread":0.07,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-05T00:29:12.554813Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":20.0,"volume_24hr":20.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.33,"volume_24h_change":20.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.285989284515381,"normalized_volume":2.719484329223633,"liquidity":2617.53,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-08-05T05:16:12.117038Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-05T05:15:44.429932Z","added_at":"2026-08-05T01:03:49.589563Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/farsi-hengam-hormuz-or-kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-byptptpt-20260804165426109/will-farsi-hengam-hormuz-or-kharg-island-no-longer-be-under-iranian-control-by-september-30-2026-20260804165426111","event_title":"Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?","chart_24h":[0.465,0.495,0.2,0.135,0.13,0.135]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3350267","event_id":"798727","slug":"will-farsi-hengam-hormuz-or-kharg-island-no-longer-be-under-iranian-control-by-august-31-2026-20260804165426110","question":"Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by August 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.\n\n\"No longer under the control of Iran\" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.\n\nTemporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.\n\nAn announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.\n\nIf control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.\n\nIf control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0395,0.9605],"probability":0.0395,"spread":0.019,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-05T00:26:12.631498Z","end_date":"2026-08-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2090.110237,"volume_24hr":2090.110237,"prob_24h_change":-0.41550000000000004,"volume_24h_change":2090.110237,"normalized_vol_24hr":27.028308868408203,"normalized_volume":17.149614334106445,"liquidity":7389.45042,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-08-05T05:52:44.945212Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-05T05:48:27.737355Z","added_at":"2026-08-05T01:03:49.589563Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/farsi-hengam-hormuz-or-kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-byptptpt-20260804165426109/will-farsi-hengam-hormuz-or-kharg-island-no-longer-be-under-iranian-control-by-august-31-2026-20260804165426110","event_title":"Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?","chart_24h":[0.455,0.425,0.07,0.065,0.06,0.0395,0.0395]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/798727","as_of":"2026-08-05T06:16:08.120528Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?\" — top market at 4% probability across 2 outcomes","source_url":null}}