{"source":"polymarket","id":"80144","ticker":"will-a-dllm-be-the-top-ai-model-before-2027","slug":"will-a-dllm-be-the-top-ai-model-before-2027","title":"Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, an AI model which is a Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) has the highest score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) is any model for which official publicly released documentation, such as a model card, technical paper, or official statements from its developers, clearly identifies diffusion or iterative denoising as a central part of its text-generation or decoding process.\n\nResults from the \"Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf two or models are tied for the top arena score at any point, this market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the joint-top ranked models are Diffusion Large Language Models.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on all published Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard rankings prior to the period of lack of availability.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-dllm-be-the-top-ai-model-by-end-of-2026-NIBVOv-o3eem.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-dllm-be-the-top-ai-model-by-end-of-2026-NIBVOv-o3eem.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-14T20:06:47.798596Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2626.0421600000013,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":13.596338272094727,"liquidity":4470.2353,"open_interest":1186.950551,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.05,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T14:18:53.780246Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T14:18:53.780246Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-dllm-be-the-top-ai-model-before-2027","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"679889","event_id":"80144","slug":"will-a-dllm-be-the-top-ai-model-before-2027","question":"Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, an AI model which is a Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) has the highest score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) is any model for which official publicly released documentation, such as a model card, technical paper, or official statements from its developers, clearly identifies diffusion or iterative denoising as a central part of its text-generation or decoding process.\n\nResults from the \"Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf two or models are tied for the top arena score at any point, this market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the joint-top ranked models are Diffusion Large Language Models.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on all published Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard rankings prior to the period of lack of availability.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-dllm-be-the-top-ai-model-by-end-of-2026-NIBVOv-o3eem.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-dllm-be-the-top-ai-model-by-end-of-2026-NIBVOv-o3eem.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.05,0.95],"probability":0.05,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-14T20:06:34.398548Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2626.0421600000013,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":15.90198802947998,"liquidity":2940.4173,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T01:05:21.830436Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-06T22:57:15.727100Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-dllm-be-the-top-ai-model-before-2027/will-a-dllm-be-the-top-ai-model-before-2027","event_title":"Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?","chart_24h":[0.05,0.05]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/80144","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:20:02.320739Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?\" — top market at 5% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}