{"source":"polymarket","id":"802141","ticker":"grok-4pt6-released-byptptpt-20260804192931960","slug":"grok-4pt6-released-byptptpt-20260804192931960","title":"Grok 4.6 released by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGrok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market).\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/grok-4pt20-released-by-FREAnoCYA7aN.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/grok-4pt20-released-by-FREAnoCYA7aN.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-05T17:33:51.608644Z","end_date":"2026-08-14T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12774.358285999997,"volume_24hr":12774.358286,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":36.023582458496094,"normalized_volume":20.373260498046875,"liquidity":7073.8458,"open_interest":6211.36332,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"540","slug":"grok","label":"Grok"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"282","slug":"elon-musk","label":"Elon Musk"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"August 14","top_outcome_probability":0.825,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.32499999999999996,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":6594.015094,"updated_at":"2026-08-05T22:30:43.994905Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-05T22:30:43.994905Z","added_at":"2026-08-05T17:35:37.795866Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/grok-4pt6-released-byptptpt-20260804192931960","chart_24h":[0.0,301.162785,1563.710585,3457.724282,9620.68946,12768.438285999999],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3365109","event_id":"802141","slug":"grok-4pt6-released-by-august-14-2026-20260804192931964","question":"Grok 4.6 released by August 14, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 14","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGrok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market).\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/grok-4pt20-released-by-FREAnoCYA7aN.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/grok-4pt20-released-by-FREAnoCYA7aN.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.825,0.175],"probability":0.825,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-05T17:33:53.652195Z","end_date":"2026-08-14T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6594.015093999999,"volume_24hr":6594.015094,"prob_24h_change":0.32499999999999996,"volume_24h_change":6594.015094,"normalized_vol_24hr":34.570804595947266,"normalized_volume":22.689659118652344,"liquidity":3903.2949,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-05T22:33:14.891491Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-05T22:30:44.074506Z","added_at":"2026-08-05T17:35:37.920199Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/grok-4pt6-released-byptptpt-20260804192931960/grok-4pt6-released-by-august-14-2026-20260804192931964","event_title":"Grok 4.6 released by...?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.865,0.815,0.815,0.835,0.895]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3365108","event_id":"802141","slug":"grok-4pt6-released-by-august-7-2026-20260804192931962","question":"Grok 4.6 released by August 7, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 7","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGrok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market).\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/grok-4pt20-released-by-FREAnoCYA7aN.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/grok-4pt20-released-by-FREAnoCYA7aN.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.195,0.805],"probability":0.195,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-05T17:33:51.608644Z","end_date":"2026-08-07T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6180.343191999998,"volume_24hr":6180.343191999999,"prob_24h_change":-0.305,"volume_24h_change":6180.343191999999,"normalized_vol_24hr":34.06337356567383,"normalized_volume":22.356618881225586,"liquidity":3011.1615,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-05T22:33:14.891491Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-05T22:30:44.074506Z","added_at":"2026-08-05T17:35:37.920199Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/grok-4pt6-released-byptptpt-20260804192931960/grok-4pt6-released-by-august-7-2026-20260804192931962","event_title":"Grok 4.6 released by...?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.345,0.265,0.265,0.225,0.195]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/802141","as_of":"2026-08-05T22:38:07.295639Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Grok 4.6 released by...?\" — top market at 82% probability across 2 outcomes","source_url":null}}