{"source":"polymarket","id":"808678","ticker":"russia-strikes-another-vessel-in-black-sea-byptptpt-20260805160021490","slug":"russia-strikes-another-vessel-in-black-sea-byptptpt-20260805160021490","title":"Russia strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a strike against any vessel in the Black Sea attributed to Russia between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) which impact a vessel anywhere in the Black Sea, regardless of flag, ownership, or damage level. \n\nStrikes attributed to Russia by media or third parties will qualify, regardless of whether Russia publicly denies involvement or if definitive attribution is not confirmed. \n\nShip seizures, boarding, or the use of small arms fire will not qualify. An intercepted missile or drone that does not impact the vessel will not qualify, even if debris lands on or near the vessel.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (EET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rs2-dd90592e0d.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rs2-dd90592e0d.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-07T00:23:13.210943Z","end_date":"2026-08-15T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1774.469072,"volume_24hr":1774.469072,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":23.24900245666504,"normalized_volume":12.755623817443848,"liquidity":2245.84657,"open_interest":635.771568,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"August 15","top_outcome_probability":0.771,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.246,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1617.48108,"updated_at":"2026-08-08T02:23:00.292511Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-08T02:23:00.292511Z","added_at":"2026-08-07T00:29:37.094395Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/russia-strikes-another-vessel-in-black-sea-byptptpt-20260805160021490","chart_24h":[0.0,1.0606,1.0606,102.5694,162.5694,405.52940000000007,405.52940000000007,445.52940000000007,450.291303,450.291303,450.291303,450.291303,776.6787840000001,836.6787840000001,1188.51405,1188.51405,1512.47405,1532.47405,1532.47405,1532.47405,1532.47405,1532.47405,1555.048051,1723.703946,1774.469072,1774.469072,1774.469072,1774.469072],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3392796","event_id":"808678","slug":"russia-strikes-another-vessel-in-the-black-sea-by-august-15-2026-20260805160021492","question":"Russia strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 15, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 15","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a strike against any vessel in the Black Sea attributed to Russia between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) which impact a vessel anywhere in the Black Sea, regardless of flag, ownership, or damage level. \n\nStrikes attributed to Russia by media or third parties will qualify, regardless of whether Russia publicly denies involvement or if definitive attribution is not confirmed. \n\nShip seizures, boarding, or the use of small arms fire will not qualify. An intercepted missile or drone that does not impact the vessel will not qualify, even if debris lands on or near the vessel.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (EET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-strikes-another-tanker-in-black-sea-by-december-31-dwHA5Sn4sKMu.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-strikes-another-tanker-in-black-sea-by-december-31-dwHA5Sn4sKMu.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.771,0.229],"probability":0.771,"spread":0.05,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-07T00:23:25.150909Z","end_date":"2026-08-15T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1617.48108,"volume_24hr":1617.48108,"prob_24h_change":0.246,"volume_24h_change":1617.48108,"normalized_vol_24hr":24.75029754638672,"normalized_volume":16.01947021484375,"liquidity":2068.84777,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-08-08T02:24:09.199145Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-08T02:23:00.685912Z","added_at":"2026-08-07T00:29:37.115057Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/russia-strikes-another-vessel-in-black-sea-byptptpt-20260805160021490/russia-strikes-another-vessel-in-the-black-sea-by-august-15-2026-20260805160021492","event_title":"Russia strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?","chart_24h":[0.525,0.505,0.83,0.88,0.885,0.9655,0.9475,0.955,0.9535,0.95,0.9525,0.9385,0.9355,0.929,0.9305,0.817,0.792,0.7795,0.7725,0.7685,0.767,0.7745,0.7725,0.77,0.7665,0.771]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3392795","event_id":"808678","slug":"russia-strikes-another-vessel-in-the-black-sea-by-august-8-2026-20260805160021491","question":"Russia strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 8, 2026?","group_item_title":"August 8","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a strike against any vessel in the Black Sea attributed to Russia between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) which impact a vessel anywhere in the Black Sea, regardless of flag, ownership, or damage level. \n\nStrikes attributed to Russia by media or third parties will qualify, regardless of whether Russia publicly denies involvement or if definitive attribution is not confirmed. \n\nShip seizures, boarding, or the use of small arms fire will not qualify. An intercepted missile or drone that does not impact the vessel will not qualify, even if debris lands on or near the vessel.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (EET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-strikes-another-tanker-in-black-sea-by-december-31-dwHA5Sn4sKMu.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ukraine-strikes-another-tanker-in-black-sea-by-december-31-dwHA5Sn4sKMu.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.42,0.58],"probability":0.42,"spread":0.62,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-07T00:23:13.210943Z","end_date":"2026-08-08T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":156.987992,"volume_24hr":156.987992,"prob_24h_change":-0.09500000000000003,"volume_24h_change":155.927392,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.61752986907959,"normalized_volume":7.519371509552002,"liquidity":252.0914,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-08-08T02:24:09.199145Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-08T02:23:00.685912Z","added_at":"2026-08-07T00:29:37.115057Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/russia-strikes-another-vessel-in-black-sea-byptptpt-20260805160021490/russia-strikes-another-vessel-in-the-black-sea-by-august-8-2026-20260805160021491","event_title":"Russia strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?","chart_24h":[0.515,0.745,0.73,0.74,0.735,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.65,0.635,0.63,0.455,0.455,0.455,0.425,0.42,0.425,0.405,0.425,0.425,0.415,0.425,0.42]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/808678","as_of":"2026-08-08T02:37:02.051221Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Russia strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?\" — top market at 77% probability across 2 outcomes","source_url":null}}