{"source":"polymarket","id":"81607","ticker":"sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-by","slug":"sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-by","title":"Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.\n\nAny form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nA peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-in-2025-zeC8lKdFgQRs.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-in-2025-zeC8lKdFgQRs.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-14T20:30:39.161298Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":98436.820188,"volume_24hr":661.103574,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":17.038650512695312,"normalized_volume":29.025611877441406,"liquidity":2695.48179,"open_interest":2235.9540309999998,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"102850","slug":"sudan","label":"Sudan"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.245,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.125,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-69.32333,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:19.496649Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:19.496649Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-by","chart_24h":[1040.97973,1042.499484,1042.499484,1077.3294839999999,1077.3294839999999,1077.3294839999999,1077.3294839999999,1077.3294839999999,1077.3294839999999,1077.3294839999999,1138.028967,1381.2882789999999,1387.2882789999999,1387.2882789999999,1448.6282789999998,1496.6282789999998,1496.6282789999998,1496.6282789999998,1496.6282789999998,1496.6282789999998,1496.6282789999998,1496.6282789999998,1496.6282789999998,1496.6282789999998,1496.6282789999998,1496.6282789999998,1496.6282789999998,1496.6282789999998,1472.918279,1502.168279,1502.168279,661.103574,661.103574],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"994859","event_id":"81607","slug":"sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-by-december-31-2026","question":"Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"December 31, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.\n\nAny form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nA peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-in-2025-zeC8lKdFgQRs.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-in-2025-zeC8lKdFgQRs.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.245,0.755],"probability":0.245,"spread":0.13,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-22T19:09:26.787224Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":705.3123199999998,"volume_24hr":54.55,"prob_24h_change":-0.125,"volume_24h_change":-69.32333,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.7017669677734375,"normalized_volume":11.038714408874512,"liquidity":667.9179,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Sudan"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:03:43.291229Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:33:34.422375Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-by/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-by-december-31-2026","event_title":"Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?","chart_24h":[0.37,0.37,0.39,0.32,0.31,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.335,0.37,0.325,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.315,0.31,0.36,0.315,0.315,0.315,0.315,0.32,0.315,0.32,0.315,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.245]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"994858","event_id":"81607","slug":"sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-by-june-30-2026","question":"Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"June 30, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.\n\nAny form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nA peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-in-2025-zeC8lKdFgQRs.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-in-2025-zeC8lKdFgQRs.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.116,0.884],"probability":0.116,"spread":0.13,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-22T19:09:24.733947Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":38582.931392,"volume_24hr":606.553574,"prob_24h_change":-0.253,"volume_24h_change":-310.552826,"normalized_vol_24hr":17.059432983398438,"normalized_volume":28.607484817504883,"liquidity":1552.03763,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Sudan"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:03:43.291229Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:19.991077Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-by/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-by-june-30-2026","event_title":"Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?","chart_24h":[0.369,0.3665,0.369,0.3695,0.3705,0.3705,0.3615,0.3615,0.3715,0.364,0.3575,0.234,0.2615,0.243,0.229,0.238,0.207,0.215,0.2085,0.221,0.231,0.1835,0.1835,0.1835,0.183,0.195,0.117,0.2065,0.217,0.1785,0.1305]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"682894","event_id":"81607","slug":"sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-in-2025","question":"Sudan civil war ceasefire in 2025?","group_item_title":"December 31, 2025","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.\n\nAny form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nA peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-in-2025-zeC8lKdFgQRs.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-in-2025-zeC8lKdFgQRs.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.005,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2025-11-14T20:23:14.128000Z","end_date":"2025-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-01-01T10:17:19Z","volume":51957.707801,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":30.24260902404785,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-by/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-in-2025","event_title":"Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"994856","event_id":"81607","slug":"sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-by-march-31-2026","question":"Sudan civil war ceasefire by March 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"March 31, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.\n\nAny form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nA peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-in-2025-zeC8lKdFgQRs.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-in-2025-zeC8lKdFgQRs.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2025-12-22T19:09:27.041888Z","end_date":"2026-03-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-04-01T10:06:57Z","volume":7190.868675000001,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":20.2301082611084,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-by/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-by-march-31-2026","event_title":"Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/81607","as_of":"2026-06-10T09:06:04.469176Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?\" — top market at 12% probability across 4 outcomes","source_url":null}}