{"source":"polymarket","id":"835729","ticker":"where-will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-by-august-31-20260811153256891","slug":"where-will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-by-august-31-20260811153256891","title":"Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?","description":"This market resolves to \"Yes\" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves \"No\".\n\nA qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.\n\nIf an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.\n\nRevisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to \"No.\"","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earthquake-7pt0-or-above-by-august-31-698-AANrykUigfWS.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earthquake-7pt0-or-above-by-august-31-698-AANrykUigfWS.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-11T22:03:43Z","end_date":"2026-09-03T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1685.460031,"volume_24hr":1685.460031,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":23.69838523864746,"normalized_volume":12.577703475952148,"liquidity":1461.4917,"open_interest":875.4516649999998,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"101522","slug":"japan","label":"Japan"},{"id":"956","slug":"mexico","label":"Mexico"},{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"87","slug":"climate","label":"climate"},{"id":"181","slug":"indonesia","label":"Indonesia"},{"id":"103038","slug":"earthquakes","label":"Earthquakes"},{"id":"101748","slug":"philippines","label":"Philippines"},{"id":"165","slug":"united-states","label":"United States"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Japan","top_outcome_probability":0.62,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.030000000000000027,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":18.03545299999999,"updated_at":"2026-08-12T14:06:48.641495Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-12T14:06:48.641495Z","added_at":"2026-08-11T22:20:51.027271Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-by-august-31-20260811153256891","chart_24h":[1667.424578,1667.424578,1685.460031,1685.460031,1685.460031,1685.460031],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3527285","event_id":"835729","slug":"will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-in-japan-in-august-1786383260324","question":"Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in Japan by August 31?","group_item_title":"Japan","description":"This market resolves to \"Yes\" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves \"No\".\n\nA qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.\n\nIf an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.\n\nRevisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to \"No.\"","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-in-japan-in-august-1786383260324-PYTXLsm400pk.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-in-japan-in-august-1786383260324-PYTXLsm400pk.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.62,0.38],"probability":0.62,"spread":0.38,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-11T22:03:43Z","end_date":"2026-09-03T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":211.035453,"volume_24hr":211.035453,"prob_24h_change":-0.030000000000000027,"volume_24h_change":18.03545299999999,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.821857452392578,"normalized_volume":8.41882610321045,"liquidity":133.589,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["Japan"],"updated_at":"2026-08-12T14:07:35.598404Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-12T14:06:48.743040Z","added_at":"2026-08-11T22:20:51.116755Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-by-august-31-20260811153256891/will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-in-japan-in-august-1786383260324","event_title":"Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?","chart_24h":[0.65,0.64,0.625,0.615,0.62,0.62]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3527288","event_id":"835729","slug":"will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-in-the-philippines-in-august-1786383260324","question":"Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in the Philippines by August 31?","group_item_title":"Philippines","description":"This market resolves to \"Yes\" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves \"No\".\n\nA qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.\n\nIf an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.\n\nRevisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to \"No.\"","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-in-the-philippines-in-august-1786383260324-8jMPgrvlMZrn.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-in-the-philippines-in-august-1786383260324-8jMPgrvlMZrn.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.515,0.485],"probability":0.515,"spread":0.43,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-11T22:03:43Z","end_date":"2026-09-03T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":317.902438,"volume_24hr":317.902438,"prob_24h_change":-0.06499999999999995,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.850085258483887,"normalized_volume":9.750558853149414,"liquidity":191.58,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["Philippines"],"updated_at":"2026-08-12T14:07:35.598404Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-12T14:06:48.743040Z","added_at":"2026-08-11T22:20:51.116755Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-by-august-31-20260811153256891/will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-in-the-philippines-in-august-1786383260324","event_title":"Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?","chart_24h":[0.58,0.57,0.485,0.5,0.485,0.515]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3527286","event_id":"835729","slug":"will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-in-indonesia-in-august-1786383260324","question":"Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in Indonesia by August 31?","group_item_title":"Indonesia","description":"This market resolves to \"Yes\" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves \"No\".\n\nA qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.\n\nIf an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.\n\nRevisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to \"No.\"","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-in-indonesia-in-august-1786383260324-1sLVwwfwXFVR.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-in-indonesia-in-august-1786383260324-1sLVwwfwXFVR.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.405,0.595],"probability":0.405,"spread":0.63,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-11T22:03:44Z","end_date":"2026-09-03T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":257.255473,"volume_24hr":257.255473,"prob_24h_change":-0.07999999999999996,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":13.783244132995605,"normalized_volume":9.050071716308594,"liquidity":198.812,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["Indonesia"],"updated_at":"2026-08-12T14:07:35.598404Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-12T14:06:48.743040Z","added_at":"2026-08-11T22:20:51.116755Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-by-august-31-20260811153256891/will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-in-indonesia-in-august-1786383260324","event_title":"Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?","chart_24h":[0.485,0.44,0.48,0.43,0.465,0.405]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3527290","event_id":"835729","slug":"will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-in-the-united-states-in-august-1786383260324","question":"Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in the United States by August 31?","group_item_title":"United States","description":"This market resolves to \"Yes\" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves \"No\".\n\nA qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.\n\nIf an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.\n\nRevisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to \"No.\"","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-in-the-united-states-in-august-1786383260324-aoNgc1MQqEzE.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-in-the-united-states-in-august-1786383260324-aoNgc1MQqEzE.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.235,0.765],"probability":0.235,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-11T22:03:43Z","end_date":"2026-09-03T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":482.955843,"volume_24hr":482.955843,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":17.076730728149414,"normalized_volume":11.212574005126953,"liquidity":817.6921,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-12T13:43:57.409390Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-12T13:43:57.409390Z","added_at":"2026-08-11T22:20:51.116755Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-by-august-31-20260811153256891/will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-in-the-united-states-in-august-1786383260324","event_title":"Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?","chart_24h":[0.235,0.23,0.235,0.235,0.235]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3527287","event_id":"835729","slug":"will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-in-chile-in-august-1786383260324","question":"Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in Chile by August 31?","group_item_title":"Chile","description":"This market resolves to \"Yes\" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves \"No\".\n\nA qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.\n\nIf an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.\n\nRevisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to \"No.\"","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-in-chile-in-august-1786383260324--nrIJ2D2jr-z.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-in-chile-in-august-1786383260324--nrIJ2D2jr-z.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.165,0.835],"probability":0.165,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-11T22:03:44Z","end_date":"2026-09-03T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":101.453683,"volume_24hr":101.453683,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":9.576329231262207,"normalized_volume":6.287813186645508,"liquidity":152.5367,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["Chile"],"updated_at":"2026-08-12T13:43:57.409390Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-12T13:43:57.409390Z","added_at":"2026-08-11T22:20:51.116755Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-by-august-31-20260811153256891/will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-in-chile-in-august-1786383260324","event_title":"Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?","chart_24h":[0.165,0.165,0.165,0.165]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3527289","event_id":"835729","slug":"will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-in-mexico-in-august-1786383260324","question":"Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in Mexico by August 31?","group_item_title":"Mexico","description":"This market resolves to \"Yes\" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves \"No\".\n\nA qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.\n\nIf an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.\n\nRevisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to \"No.\"","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-in-mexico-in-august-1786383260324-IAWH7iglw9TN.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-in-mexico-in-august-1786383260324-IAWH7iglw9TN.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.155,0.845],"probability":0.155,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-11T22:03:43Z","end_date":"2026-09-03T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":314.857141,"volume_24hr":314.857141,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.800692558288574,"normalized_volume":9.718128204345703,"liquidity":510.6527,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["Mexico"],"updated_at":"2026-08-12T04:11:54.717351Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-12T04:11:54.717351Z","added_at":"2026-08-11T22:20:51.116755Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-by-august-31-20260811153256891/will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-in-mexico-in-august-1786383260324","event_title":"Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/835729","as_of":"2026-08-12T14:49:05.648294Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?\" — top market at 24% probability across 6 outcomes","source_url":null}}