{"source":"polymarket","id":"840763","ticker":"will-there-be-a-power-grid-emergency-before-october-1-1786552244191","slug":"will-there-be-a-power-grid-emergency-before-october-1-1786552244191","title":"Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?","description":"This event tracks whether each listed U.S. regional grid operator declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) from this event's creation through that market's deadline of 11:59 PM local time on September 30, 2026. Each regional market resolves independently to \"Yes\" or \"No\" under its own operator, sources, and rules shown on that market, and more than one market may resolve \"Yes\".\n\nEach market is confirmed by any official communication from the relevant grid operator — its newsroom or press releases (linked in that market's rules), market or grid notices, or real-time system-status postings — or by credible national news reporting. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify in any market. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify in any market. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-phoenix-be-under-an-extreme-heat-warning-for-10-days-in-august-2026-2026072-mFaXtLdrzngM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-phoenix-be-under-an-extreme-heat-warning-for-10-days-in-august-2026-2026072-mFaXtLdrzngM.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-12T21:26:05Z","end_date":"2026-10-02T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2002.079334,"volume_24hr":1446.366665,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":21.493864059448242,"normalized_volume":13.154854774475098,"liquidity":522.4129,"open_interest":1121.963117,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"404","slug":"energy","label":"energy"},{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"87","slug":"climate","label":"climate"},{"id":"103037","slug":"climate-science","label":"Climate & Science"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Mid-Atlantic (PJM)","top_outcome_probability":0.44,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.065,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-08-31T07:07:45.291028Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-31T07:07:45.291028Z","added_at":"2026-08-12T21:30:00.006989Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-a-power-grid-emergency-before-october-1-1786552244191","chart_24h":[60.39,60.39,60.39,60.39,60.39,60.39,60.39,60.39,60.39,60.39,60.39,60.39,60.39,60.39,60.39,20.0,20.0,20.0,20.0,20.0,20.0,20.0,20.0,20.0,20.0,20.0,20.0,20.0,20.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1366.166665,1426.266665,1426.266665,1426.266665,1446.366665,1446.366665],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3552740","event_id":"840763","slug":"will-there-be-a-power-grid-emergency-in-texas-before-october-1-1786552244191","question":"Will there be a power grid emergency in Texas before October 1?","group_item_title":"Texas (ERCOT)","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. \n\nA lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.\n\nThe declaration will be confirmed by any official ERCOT communication — its news releases (https://www.ercot.com/news/releases), market notices, or real-time grid-condition postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.\n\nOtherwise, this market resolves \"No\".","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.39,0.61],"probability":0.39,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-12T21:26:06Z","end_date":"2026-10-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":260.98,"volume_24hr":120.19999999999999,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":79.80999999999999,"normalized_vol_24hr":9.453804969787598,"normalized_volume":9.096796989440918,"liquidity":116.24,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-31T06:50:56.252112Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-31T06:50:56.252112Z","added_at":"2026-08-12T21:30:00.076990Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-a-power-grid-emergency-before-october-1-1786552244191/will-there-be-a-power-grid-emergency-in-texas-before-october-1-1786552244191","event_title":"Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?","chart_24h":[0.39,0.39,0.395,0.385,0.385,0.38,0.385,0.375,0.375,0.245,0.4,0.26,0.235,0.24,0.39,0.39]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3552742","event_id":"840763","slug":"will-there-be-a-power-grid-emergency-in-the-midwest-before-october-1-1786552244191","question":"Will there be a power grid emergency in the Midwest before October 1?","group_item_title":"Midwest (MISO)","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) — the regional transmission organization serving all or part of 15 U.S. states from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) for any of its balancing authority areas from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. \"Midwest\" in the title is a general label — only a MISO declaration counts, and emergencies in other grid operators do not qualify.\n\nA lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.\n\nThe declaration will be confirmed by any official MISO communication — its Media Center (https://www.misoenergy.org/meet-miso/media-center/), market notices, or real-time grid-condition postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.\n\nOtherwise, this market resolves \"No\".","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.225,0.775],"probability":0.225,"spread":0.37,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-12T21:26:06Z","end_date":"2026-10-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":623.166665,"volume_24hr":583.166665,"prob_24h_change":-0.009999999999999981,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.668304443359375,"normalized_volume":12.154485702514648,"liquidity":77.55,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-31T06:31:05.385926Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-31T06:31:05.385926Z","added_at":"2026-08-12T21:30:00.076990Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-a-power-grid-emergency-before-october-1-1786552244191/will-there-be-a-power-grid-emergency-in-the-midwest-before-october-1-1786552244191","event_title":"Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?","chart_24h":[0.235,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.225]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3552744","event_id":"840763","slug":"will-there-be-a-power-grid-emergency-in-new-york-before-october-1-1786552244191","question":"Will there be a power grid emergency in New York before October 1?","group_item_title":"New York (NYISO)","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. \n\nA lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.\n\nThe declaration will be confirmed by any official NYISO communication — its News & Media page (https://www.nyiso.com/news-and-media), market notices, or real-time system-conditions postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.\n\nOtherwise, this market resolves \"No\".","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.22,0.78],"probability":0.22,"spread":0.32,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-12T21:26:05Z","end_date":"2026-10-02T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":676.5426689999999,"volume_24hr":522.0,"prob_24h_change":0.11,"volume_24h_change":522.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.09450912475586,"normalized_volume":12.466365814208984,"liquidity":69.55,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-31T07:07:45.790557Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-31T07:07:45.790557Z","added_at":"2026-08-12T21:30:00.076990Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-a-power-grid-emergency-before-october-1-1786552244191/will-there-be-a-power-grid-emergency-in-new-york-before-october-1-1786552244191","event_title":"Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?","chart_24h":[0.11,0.21,0.22,0.225,0.24,0.22,0.22]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3552741","event_id":"840763","slug":"will-there-be-a-power-grid-emergency-in-the-central-us-before-october-1-1786552244191","question":"Will there be a power grid emergency in the Central US before October 1?","group_item_title":"Central US (SPP)","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) — the regional transmission organization serving all or part of 17 states across the central and western U.S. — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) for any of its balancing authority areas from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. \"Central US\" in the title is a general label — only an SPP declaration counts, and emergencies in other central-U.S. grid operators do not qualify.\n\nA lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.\n\nThe declaration will be confirmed by any official SPP communication — its press releases (https://www.spp.org/newsroom/press-releases/), Grid Notices, or its real-time Current Grid Conditions page — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.\n\nOtherwise, this market resolves \"No\".","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.205,0.795],"probability":0.205,"spread":0.29,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-12T21:26:06Z","end_date":"2026-10-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":261.0,"volume_24hr":221.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.16,"volume_24h_change":221.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.989614486694336,"normalized_volume":9.0970458984375,"liquidity":77.7144,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-31T05:00:55.078122Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-31T05:00:55.078122Z","added_at":"2026-08-12T21:30:00.076990Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-a-power-grid-emergency-before-october-1-1786552244191/will-there-be-a-power-grid-emergency-in-the-central-us-before-october-1-1786552244191","event_title":"Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?","chart_24h":[0.365,0.215,0.205]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3552743","event_id":"840763","slug":"will-there-be-a-power-grid-emergency-in-the-mid-atlantic-before-october-1-1786552244191","question":"Will there be a power grid emergency in the Mid-Atlantic before October 1?","group_item_title":"Mid-Atlantic (PJM)","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if PJM Interconnection declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) anywhere across its footprint from this market's creation through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. PJM serves all or part of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia; a qualifying declaration anywhere in that footprint counts, and \"Mid-Atlantic\" in the title is only a general label. \n\nA lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.\n\nThe declaration will be confirmed by any official PJM communication — its Inside Lines blog (https://insidelines.pjm.com/), emergency-procedure or market messages, or real-time system-status postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.\n\nOtherwise, this market resolves \"No\".","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.44,0.56],"probability":0.44,"spread":0.62,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-12T21:26:05Z","end_date":"2026-10-02T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":40.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.065,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":4.046056270599365,"liquidity":48.2347,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-31T06:31:05.385926Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-31T06:31:05.385926Z","added_at":"2026-08-12T21:30:00.076990Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-a-power-grid-emergency-before-october-1-1786552244191/will-there-be-a-power-grid-emergency-in-the-mid-atlantic-before-october-1-1786552244191","event_title":"Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?","chart_24h":[0.375,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.415,0.435,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.44]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3552745","event_id":"840763","slug":"will-there-be-a-power-grid-emergency-in-new-england-before-october-1-1786552244191","question":"Will there be a power grid emergency in New England before October 1?","group_item_title":"New England (ISO-NE)","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if ISO New England (ISO-NE) — the grid operator for the six New England states of Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. \n\nA lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.\n\nThe declaration will be confirmed by any official ISO New England communication — its press releases (https://www.iso-ne.com/about/news-media/press-releases), market notices, or real-time system-status postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.\n\nOtherwise, this market resolves \"No\".","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.245,0.755],"probability":0.245,"spread":0.37,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-12T21:26:05Z","end_date":"2026-10-02T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":60.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":4.958113670349121,"liquidity":50.7502,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-30T22:13:39.027751Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-30T22:13:39.027751Z","added_at":"2026-08-12T21:30:00.076990Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-a-power-grid-emergency-before-october-1-1786552244191/will-there-be-a-power-grid-emergency-in-new-england-before-october-1-1786552244191","event_title":"Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?","chart_24h":[0.245,0.25,0.25,0.245,0.255,0.25,0.245,0.255,0.25,0.27,0.245,0.245,0.25,0.245,0.245]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3552739","event_id":"840763","slug":"will-there-be-a-power-grid-emergency-in-california-before-october-1-1786552244191","question":"Will there be a power grid emergency in California before October 1?","group_item_title":"California (CAISO)","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), which operates the electric grid serving most of California, declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM PT on September 30, 2026. \n\nA lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.\n\nThe declaration will be confirmed by any official CAISO communication — its newsroom (https://www.caiso.com/about/news), market notices, or real-time system-condition (Today's Outlook) postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.\n\nOtherwise, this market resolves \"No\".","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.18,0.82],"probability":0.18,"spread":0.16,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-12T21:26:06Z","end_date":"2026-10-02T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":80.39,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.04999999999999999,"volume_24h_change":-20.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":5.678138256072998,"liquidity":70.8036,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-31T02:39:50.935630Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-31T02:39:50.935630Z","added_at":"2026-08-12T21:30:00.076990Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-a-power-grid-emergency-before-october-1-1786552244191/will-there-be-a-power-grid-emergency-in-california-before-october-1-1786552244191","event_title":"Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?","chart_24h":[0.13,0.13,0.255,0.25,0.245,0.255,0.265,0.28,0.265,0.255,0.25,0.255,0.18,0.17,0.18]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/840763","as_of":"2026-08-31T07:19:00.358126Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?\" — top market at 22% probability across 7 outcomes","source_url":null}}