{"source":"polymarket","id":"849461","ticker":"august-2026-temperature-increase-c-higher-strikes","slug":"august-2026-temperature-increase-c-higher-strikes","title":"August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)","description":"This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Aug\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-14T18:30:35Z","end_date":"2026-09-01T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21.61,"volume_24hr":21.61,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.199500560760498,"normalized_volume":2.214906930923462,"liquidity":1478.3789,"open_interest":31.235,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"74","slug":"science","label":"Science"},{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"832","slug":"global-temp","label":"Global Temp"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"1.38–1.41ºC","top_outcome_probability":0.41,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.04500000000000004,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-08-15T21:55:21.116335Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-15T21:55:21.116335Z","added_at":"2026-08-14T18:58:42.293623Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/august-2026-temperature-increase-c-higher-strikes","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,21.61,21.61,21.61,21.61],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3585973","event_id":"849461","slug":"will-global-temperature-increase-by-less-than-1pt10c-in-august-2026","question":"Will global temperature increase by less than 1.30ºC in August 2026?","group_item_title":"<1.30ºC","description":"This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Aug\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.05,0.95],"probability":0.05,"spread":0.1,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-14T18:30:35Z","end_date":"2026-09-01T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21.61,"volume_24hr":21.61,"prob_24h_change":-0.185,"volume_24h_change":21.61,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.443923473358154,"normalized_volume":2.8530521392822266,"liquidity":1145.9181,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-15T21:55:21.305828Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-15T21:55:21.305828Z","added_at":"2026-08-14T18:58:42.426216Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/august-2026-temperature-increase-c-higher-strikes/will-global-temperature-increase-by-less-than-1pt10c-in-august-2026","event_title":"August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)","chart_24h":[0.235,0.245,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.205,0.215,0.215,0.205,0.205,0.215,0.205,0.2,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.06]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3585979","event_id":"849461","slug":"will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt20c-and-1pt24c-in-august-2026","question":"Will global temperature increase by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026?","group_item_title":"1.38–1.41ºC","description":"This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Aug\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.41,0.59],"probability":0.41,"spread":0.64,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-14T18:30:35Z","end_date":"2026-09-01T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.04500000000000004,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":61.2687,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-15T21:56:43.911200Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-15T21:32:10.173422Z","added_at":"2026-08-14T18:58:42.426216Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/august-2026-temperature-increase-c-higher-strikes/will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt20c-and-1pt24c-in-august-2026","event_title":"August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)","chart_24h":[0.455,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.395,0.385,0.37,0.355,0.365,0.35,0.335,0.41]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3585981","event_id":"849461","slug":"will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt25c-and-1pt29c-in-august-2026","question":"Will global temperature increase by between 1.42ºC and 1.45ºC in August 2026?","group_item_title":"1.42–1.45ºC","description":"This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Aug\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.38,0.62],"probability":0.38,"spread":0.64,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-14T18:30:35Z","end_date":"2026-09-01T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.07500000000000001,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":66.2308,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-15T21:56:43.911200Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-15T20:25:43.279417Z","added_at":"2026-08-14T18:58:42.426216Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/august-2026-temperature-increase-c-higher-strikes/will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt25c-and-1pt29c-in-august-2026","event_title":"August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)","chart_24h":[0.455,0.41,0.4,0.405,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.365,0.355,0.335,0.35,0.46,0.375,0.38,0.38]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3585984","event_id":"849461","slug":"will-global-temperature-increase-by-more-than-1pt29c-in-august-2026","question":"Will global temperature increase by more than 1.45ºC in August 2026?","group_item_title":">1.45ºC","description":"This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Aug\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.34,0.66],"probability":0.34,"spread":0.56,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-14T18:30:35Z","end_date":"2026-09-01T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.125,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":57.1817,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-15T21:56:43.911200Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-15T19:19:28.390715Z","added_at":"2026-08-14T18:58:42.426216Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/august-2026-temperature-increase-c-higher-strikes/will-global-temperature-increase-by-more-than-1pt29c-in-august-2026","event_title":"August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)","chart_24h":[0.465,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.415,0.4,0.405,0.395,0.395,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.325,0.315,0.34,0.34,0.34]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3585975","event_id":"849461","slug":"will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt10c-and-1pt14c-in-august-2026","question":"Will global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.33ºC in August 2026?","group_item_title":"1.30–1.33ºC","description":"This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Aug\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.33,0.67],"probability":0.33,"spread":0.54,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-14T18:30:35Z","end_date":"2026-09-01T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.12,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":70.3599,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-15T21:56:43.911200Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-15T20:25:43.279417Z","added_at":"2026-08-14T18:58:42.426216Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/august-2026-temperature-increase-c-higher-strikes/will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt10c-and-1pt14c-in-august-2026","event_title":"August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)","chart_24h":[0.45,0.41,0.4,0.395,0.405,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.28,0.275,0.26,0.345,0.32,0.33,0.33]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3585977","event_id":"849461","slug":"will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt15c-and-1pt19c-in-august-2026","question":"Will global temperature increase by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026?","group_item_title":"1.34–1.37ºC","description":"This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Aug\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.32,0.68],"probability":0.32,"spread":0.52,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-14T18:30:35Z","end_date":"2026-09-01T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.14500000000000002,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":76.4012,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-15T21:56:43.911200Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-15T20:25:43.279417Z","added_at":"2026-08-14T18:58:42.426216Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/august-2026-temperature-increase-c-higher-strikes/will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt15c-and-1pt19c-in-august-2026","event_title":"August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)","chart_24h":[0.465,0.41,0.4,0.385,0.405,0.4,0.405,0.395,0.395,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.325,0.34,0.325,0.32,0.32]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/849461","as_of":"2026-08-15T22:03:17.994824Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)\" — top market at 5% probability across 6 outcomes","source_url":null}}