{"source":"polymarket","id":"867162","ticker":"what-will-the-peak-roni-be-for-the-2026-27-el-nino-1786975502957","slug":"what-will-the-peak-roni-be-for-the-2026-27-el-nino-1786975502957","title":"What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?","description":"This market resolves based on the peak RONI — the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as published in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms.\n\nThis market may resolve immediately once NOAA has published a RONI value that determines the peak: the \"Over 2.5\" outcome resolves \"Yes\" as soon as any listed season reaches +2.5°C or above. Any other outcome will not be confirmed until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value, since RONI can still rise in a later season and DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window.\n\nThe first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-there-be-a-super-el-nino-this-winter-202627-20260721215346737-aDL6k5Xgb8nX.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-there-be-a-super-el-nino-this-winter-202627-20260721215346737-aDL6k5Xgb8nX.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T19:35:07Z","end_date":"2027-04-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":505.02678499999996,"volume_24hr":111.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":9.648107528686523,"normalized_volume":8.828045845031738,"liquidity":1299.91895,"open_interest":383.46061699999996,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"87","slug":"climate","label":"climate"},{"id":"104180","slug":"weather-science","label":"Weather & Science"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Over 2.5","top_outcome_probability":0.555,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-33.612243,"updated_at":"2026-08-20T07:39:11.929533Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-20T07:39:11.929533Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T19:53:23.298088Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-peak-roni-be-for-the-2026-27-el-nino-1786975502957","chart_24h":[377.886785,387.88678500000003,387.886785,387.886785,387.886785,387.886785,387.886785,387.886785,387.88678500000003,387.886785,387.886785,387.886785,348.201528,219.656665,188.996665,188.996665,188.996665,188.996665,188.996665,264.996665,264.996665,264.996665,264.996665,264.996665,264.996665,264.996665,239.996665,117.58],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3680999","event_id":"867162","slug":"will-the-peak-roni-for-the-202627-el-nino-be-2pt5-or-above","question":"Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?","group_item_title":"Over 2.5","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is +2.5°C or above. Otherwise, it resolves \"No\". This market resolves \"Yes\" as soon as NOAA publishes a RONI value of +2.5°C or above for any listed season. If no listed season reaches +2.5°C, this market resolves \"No\" once NOAA has published the RONI value for DJF 2026-27.\n\nThe peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).\n\nThe first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.555,0.445],"probability":0.555,"spread":0.29,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T19:35:07Z","end_date":"2027-04-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":63.612243,"volume_24hr":15.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":-33.612243,"normalized_vol_24hr":3.406252145767212,"normalized_volume":5.097858428955078,"liquidity":158.3493,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-20T07:39:12.276935Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-20T07:39:12.276935Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T19:53:23.341540Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-peak-roni-be-for-the-2026-27-el-nino-1786975502957/will-the-peak-roni-for-the-202627-el-nino-be-2pt5-or-above","event_title":"What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?","chart_24h":[0.545,0.55,0.615,0.615,0.59,0.55,0.545,0.55,0.515,0.56,0.56,0.565,0.535,0.345,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.375,0.365,0.385,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.515,0.52]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3680998","event_id":"867162","slug":"will-the-peak-roni-for-the-202627-el-nino-be-at-least-2pt25-but-below-2pt5","question":"Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?","group_item_title":"2.25–2.5","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.25°C and below +2.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves \"No\".\n\nThe peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).\n\nThe first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.285,0.715],"probability":0.285,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T19:35:07Z","end_date":"2027-04-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":47.42,"volume_24hr":5.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.11000000000000004,"volume_24h_change":-37.42,"normalized_vol_24hr":1.422542691230774,"normalized_volume":4.416641712188721,"liquidity":493.7498,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-20T06:38:38.895903Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-20T06:06:45.512959Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T19:53:23.341540Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-peak-roni-be-for-the-2026-27-el-nino-1786975502957/will-the-peak-roni-for-the-202627-el-nino-be-at-least-2pt25-but-below-2pt5","event_title":"What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?","chart_24h":[0.4,0.4,0.4,0.395,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.275,0.285,0.285,0.285,0.285,0.285,0.285,0.285,0.285,0.285]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3680997","event_id":"867162","slug":"will-the-peak-roni-for-the-202627-el-nino-be-at-least-2pt0-but-below-2pt25","question":"Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25?","group_item_title":"2.0–2.25","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.0°C and below +2.25°C. Otherwise, it resolves \"No\".\n\nThe peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).\n\nThe first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.115,0.885],"probability":0.115,"spread":0.202,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T19:35:07Z","end_date":"2027-04-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":49.685257,"volume_24hr":5.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.05699999999999998,"volume_24h_change":-39.685257,"normalized_vol_24hr":1.422542691230774,"normalized_volume":4.52134895324707,"liquidity":130.92334,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-20T07:10:10.865655Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-20T07:07:59.532543Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T19:53:23.341540Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-peak-roni-be-for-the-2026-27-el-nino-1786975502957/will-the-peak-roni-for-the-202627-el-nino-be-at-least-2pt0-but-below-2pt25","event_title":"What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?","chart_24h":[0.177,0.177,0.177,0.177,0.1735,0.165,0.1615,0.135,0.136,0.1705,0.1575,0.1015,0.101,0.1205,0.139,0.135,0.127,0.1405,0.1255,0.14,0.1345,0.1285,0.1025,0.1075,0.1335,0.1055,0.1165,0.1135]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3680996","event_id":"867162","slug":"will-the-peak-roni-for-the-202627-el-nino-be-at-least-1pt5-but-below-2pt0","question":"Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0?","group_item_title":"1.5–2.0","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +1.5°C and below +2.0°C. Otherwise, it resolves \"No\".\n\nThe peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).\n\nThe first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.075,0.925],"probability":0.075,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T19:35:07Z","end_date":"2027-04-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":213.996665,"volume_24hr":81.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.03,"volume_24h_change":-38.836664999999996,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.908794403076172,"normalized_volume":8.462475776672363,"liquidity":322.1919,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-20T07:39:12.276935Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-20T07:39:12.276935Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T19:53:23.341540Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-peak-roni-be-for-the-2026-27-el-nino-1786975502957/will-the-peak-roni-for-the-202627-el-nino-be-at-least-1pt5-but-below-2pt0","event_title":"What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?","chart_24h":[0.09,0.105,0.105,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.105,0.105,0.105,0.1,0.085,0.12,0.115,0.105,0.075,0.075,0.075,0.075]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3680995","event_id":"867162","slug":"will-the-peak-roni-for-the-202627-el-nino-be-below-1pt5","question":"Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be below 1.5?","group_item_title":"Under 1.5","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves \"No\".\n\nThe peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).\n\nThe first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.055,0.945],"probability":0.055,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T19:35:07Z","end_date":"2027-04-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":130.31261999999998,"volume_24hr":5.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000002,"volume_24h_change":-84.17262,"normalized_vol_24hr":1.422542691230774,"normalized_volume":6.980027675628662,"liquidity":287.1889,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-20T06:42:34.537727Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-20T06:06:45.512959Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T19:53:23.341540Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-peak-roni-be-for-the-2026-27-el-nino-1786975502957/will-the-peak-roni-for-the-202627-el-nino-be-below-1pt5","event_title":"What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?","chart_24h":[0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055,0.055]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/867162","as_of":"2026-08-20T07:53:18.412996Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?\" — top market at 8% probability across 5 outcomes","source_url":null}}