{"source":"polymarket","id":"867162","ticker":"what-will-the-peak-roni-be-for-the-2026-27-el-nino-1786975502957","slug":"what-will-the-peak-roni-be-for-the-2026-27-el-nino-1786975502957","title":"What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?","description":"This market resolves based on the peak RONI — the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as published in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms.\n\nThis market may resolve immediately once NOAA has published a RONI value that determines the peak: the \"Over 2.5\" outcome resolves \"Yes\" as soon as any listed season reaches +2.5°C or above. Any other outcome will not be confirmed until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value, since RONI can still rise in a later season and DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window.\n\nThe first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-there-be-a-super-el-nino-this-winter-202627-20260721215346737-aDL6k5Xgb8nX.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-there-be-a-super-el-nino-this-winter-202627-20260721215346737-aDL6k5Xgb8nX.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T19:35:07Z","end_date":"2027-04-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":65282.20362,"volume_24hr":2596.36,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":26.76351547241211,"normalized_volume":27.934755325317383,"liquidity":7921.38201,"open_interest":5724.468438,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"87","slug":"climate","label":"climate"},{"id":"104180","slug":"weather-science","label":"Weather & Science"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Over 2.5","top_outcome_probability":0.74,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.015000000000000013,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":409.11,"updated_at":"2026-10-04T10:11:04.589011Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T10:11:04.589011Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T19:53:23.298088Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-peak-roni-be-for-the-2026-27-el-nino-1786975502957","chart_24h":[0.82,0.82,0.82,1.34,1.34,1.34,1.34,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,1891.3600000000001,2063.5400000000004,2093.5400000000004,2093.5400000000004,2596.36,2596.36,2596.36],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3680999","event_id":"867162","slug":"will-the-peak-roni-for-the-202627-el-nino-be-2pt5-or-above","question":"Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?","group_item_title":"Over 2.5","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is +2.5°C or above. Otherwise, it resolves \"No\". This market resolves \"Yes\" as soon as NOAA publishes a RONI value of +2.5°C or above for any listed season. If no listed season reaches +2.5°C, this market resolves \"No\" once NOAA has published the RONI value for DJF 2026-27.\n\nThe peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).\n\nThe first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.74,0.26],"probability":0.74,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T19:35:07Z","end_date":"2027-04-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":29229.301136000002,"volume_24hr":409.93,"prob_24h_change":-0.015000000000000013,"volume_24h_change":409.11,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.097217559814453,"normalized_volume":31.023056030273438,"liquidity":1764.7884,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T09:48:52.714121Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T09:48:52.714121Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T19:53:23.341540Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-peak-roni-be-for-the-2026-27-el-nino-1786975502957/will-the-peak-roni-for-the-202627-el-nino-be-2pt5-or-above","event_title":"What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?","chart_24h":[0.755,0.755,0.755,0.755,0.755,0.755,0.755,0.755,0.755,0.755,0.755,0.755,0.755,0.755,0.755,0.755,0.745,0.74,0.735,0.74,0.74]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3680998","event_id":"867162","slug":"will-the-peak-roni-for-the-202627-el-nino-be-at-least-2pt25-but-below-2pt5","question":"Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?","group_item_title":"2.25–2.5","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.25°C and below +2.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves \"No\".\n\nThe peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).\n\nThe first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.21,0.79],"probability":0.21,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T19:35:07Z","end_date":"2027-04-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":27925.786442,"volume_24hr":2186.4300000000003,"prob_24h_change":-0.03,"volume_24h_change":705.0000000000002,"normalized_vol_24hr":26.28407096862793,"normalized_volume":30.748403549194336,"liquidity":1830.9749,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T10:11:05.163211Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T10:11:05.163211Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T19:53:23.341540Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-peak-roni-be-for-the-2026-27-el-nino-1786975502957/will-the-peak-roni-for-the-202627-el-nino-be-at-least-2pt25-but-below-2pt5","event_title":"What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?","chart_24h":[0.24,0.24,0.265,0.185,0.18,0.22,0.23]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3680997","event_id":"867162","slug":"will-the-peak-roni-for-the-202627-el-nino-be-at-least-2pt0-but-below-2pt25","question":"Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25?","group_item_title":"2.0–2.25","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.0°C and below +2.25°C. Otherwise, it resolves \"No\".\n\nThe peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).\n\nThe first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0225,0.9775],"probability":0.0225,"spread":0.041,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T19:35:07Z","end_date":"2027-04-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3593.913741,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0005000000000000004,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":19.66649627685547,"liquidity":1529.68774,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:04:36.767911Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:04:36.767911Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T19:53:23.341540Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-peak-roni-be-for-the-2026-27-el-nino-1786975502957/will-the-peak-roni-for-the-202627-el-nino-be-at-least-2pt0-but-below-2pt25","event_title":"What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?","chart_24h":[0.022,0.015,0.0225]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3680996","event_id":"867162","slug":"will-the-peak-roni-for-the-202627-el-nino-be-at-least-1pt5-but-below-2pt0","question":"Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0?","group_item_title":"1.5–2.0","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +1.5°C and below +2.0°C. Otherwise, it resolves \"No\".\n\nThe peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).\n\nThe first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.009,0.991],"probability":0.009,"spread":0.012,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T19:35:07Z","end_date":"2027-04-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2946.827831,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":18.72465705871582,"liquidity":2509.96813,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-01T12:25:55.603779Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-01T12:25:55.603779Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T19:53:23.341540Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-peak-roni-be-for-the-2026-27-el-nino-1786975502957/will-the-peak-roni-for-the-202627-el-nino-be-at-least-1pt5-but-below-2pt0","event_title":"What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3680995","event_id":"867162","slug":"will-the-peak-roni-for-the-202627-el-nino-be-below-1pt5","question":"Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be below 1.5?","group_item_title":"Under 1.5","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves \"No\".\n\nThe peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).\n\nThe first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.002,0.998],"probability":0.002,"spread":0.004,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T19:35:07Z","end_date":"2027-04-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1586.37447,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":15.93543529510498,"liquidity":2116.84256,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-30T04:25:55.164070Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-30T04:25:55.164070Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T19:53:23.341540Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-peak-roni-be-for-the-2026-27-el-nino-1786975502957/will-the-peak-roni-for-the-202627-el-nino-be-below-1pt5","event_title":"What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/867162","as_of":"2026-10-04T10:19:34.183792Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?\" — top market at 21% probability across 5 outcomes","source_url":null}}