{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/867669","as_of":"2026-10-06T15:44:55.113668Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"How low will Lake Mead drop?\" — \"1,028–1,033 ft\" leads at 45% across 4 outcomes as of 2026-10-06 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/867669","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-lake-mead-drop-1786981653904"},"source":"polymarket","id":"867669","ticker":"how-low-will-lake-mead-drop-1786981653904","slug":"how-low-will-lake-mead-drop-1786981653904","title":"How low will Lake Mead drop?","description":"This market resolves based on the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam) between market creation and March 31, 2027, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms.\n\nBecause a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.\n\nThe resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.\n\nIn the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-low-will-lake-mead-drop-1786981653903-istLpEcsVz8r.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-low-will-lake-mead-drop-1786981653903-istLpEcsVz8r.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T21:49:05Z","end_date":"2027-04-16T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":23269.507892,"volume_24hr":55.555556,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.313921928405762,"normalized_volume":22.976850509643555,"liquidity":8272.61376,"open_interest":2955.242683,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"101984","slug":"water","label":"water"},{"id":"105721","slug":"drought","label":"Drought"},{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"165","slug":"united-states","label":"United States"},{"id":"103037","slug":"climate-science","label":"Climate & Science"},{"id":"496","slug":"natural-disasters","label":"Natural Disasters"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"1,028–1,033 ft","top_outcome_probability":0.4455,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-06T15:25:03.808025Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T15:25:03.808025Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T22:06:56.586797Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-lake-mead-drop-1786981653904","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,55.555556,55.555556,55.555556,55.555556,55.555556,55.555556],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":true,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3683441","event_id":"867669","slug":"will-lake-meads-minimum-elevation-fall-below-1028-ft","question":"Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation fall below 1,028 ft?","group_item_title":"Below 1,028 ft","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,028.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves \"No.\" For reference, 1,025 feet is the threshold below which the Lower Colorado River Basin enters its most severe declared shortage tier (Tier 3).\n\nResolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.\n\nThe resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.\n\nIn the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.445,0.555],"probability":0.445,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T21:49:05Z","end_date":"2027-04-15T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":10390.044048000002,"volume_24hr":55.555556,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.679619789123535,"normalized_volume":25.096290588378906,"liquidity":3356.098,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-06T15:25:05.059456Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T15:25:05.059456Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T22:06:56.644230Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-lake-mead-drop-1786981653904/will-lake-meads-minimum-elevation-fall-below-1028-ft","event_title":"How low will Lake Mead drop?","chart_24h":[0.445,0.445,0.445,0.445,0.445]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3683440","event_id":"867669","slug":"will-lake-meads-minimum-elevation-be-at-least-1028-but-below-1033-ft","question":"Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation be at least 1,028 but below 1,033 ft?","group_item_title":"1,028–1,033 ft","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,033.00 feet but does not fall below 1,028.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves \"No.\"\n\nResolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.\n\nThe resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.\n\nIn the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.4455,0.5545],"probability":0.4455,"spread":0.001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T21:49:05Z","end_date":"2027-04-15T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":6147.611325,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":22.329431533813477,"liquidity":3733.98937,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-03T15:18:07.183420Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-03T15:18:07.183420Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T22:06:56.644230Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-lake-mead-drop-1786981653904/will-lake-meads-minimum-elevation-be-at-least-1028-but-below-1033-ft","event_title":"How low will Lake Mead drop?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3683439","event_id":"867669","slug":"will-lake-meads-minimum-elevation-be-at-least-1033-but-below-1038-ft","question":"Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation be at least 1,033 but below 1,038 ft?","group_item_title":"1,033–1,038 ft","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,038.00 feet but does not fall below 1,033.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves \"No.\"\n\nResolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.\n\nThe resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.\n\nIn the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.078,0.922],"probability":0.078,"spread":0.014,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T21:49:05Z","end_date":"2027-04-15T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":2228.948111,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":17.4392147064209,"liquidity":1143.45875,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-06T14:18:41.681365Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T14:18:41.681365Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T22:06:56.644230Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-lake-mead-drop-1786981653904/will-lake-meads-minimum-elevation-be-at-least-1033-but-below-1038-ft","event_title":"How low will Lake Mead drop?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3683438","event_id":"867669","slug":"will-lake-meads-minimum-elevation-stay-above-1038-ft","question":"Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation stay above 1,038 ft?","group_item_title":"Above 1,038 ft","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 does not fall below 1,038.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves \"No.\"\n\nResolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.\n\nThe resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.\n\nIn the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0355,0.9645],"probability":0.0355,"spread":0.045,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T21:49:05Z","end_date":"2027-04-15T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":4502.904408,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":20.764381408691406,"liquidity":776.88314,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T22:12:14.019453Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T22:12:14.019453Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T22:06:56.644230Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-lake-mead-drop-1786981653904/will-lake-meads-minimum-elevation-stay-above-1038-ft","event_title":"How low will Lake Mead drop?","chart_24h":null}]}