{"source":"polymarket","id":"867670","ticker":"how-low-will-lake-powell-drop-1786980780361","slug":"how-low-will-lake-powell-drop-1786980780361","title":"How low will Lake Powell drop?","description":"This market resolves based on the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam) between market creation and March 31, 2027, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms.\n\nBecause a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.\n\nThe resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-low-will-lake-powell-drop-1786980780360-rkz7FlpXCesT.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-low-will-lake-powell-drop-1786980780360-rkz7FlpXCesT.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T21:49:59Z","end_date":"2027-04-15T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":532.859173,"volume_24hr":19.4,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":3.4463131427764893,"normalized_volume":8.979641914367676,"liquidity":1320.0902,"open_interest":174.64301,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"101984","slug":"water","label":"water"},{"id":"105721","slug":"drought","label":"Drought"},{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"165","slug":"united-states","label":"United States"},{"id":"103037","slug":"climate-science","label":"Climate & Science"},{"id":"496","slug":"natural-disasters","label":"Natural Disasters"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"3,500–3,510 ft","top_outcome_probability":0.335,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-59.867163,"updated_at":"2026-08-21T20:36:54.588488Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-21T20:36:54.588488Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T22:06:56.586797Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-lake-powell-drop-1786980780361","chart_24h":[275.0887,275.0887,89.427163,69.86,69.86,69.86,69.86,69.86,69.86,19.4,0.0,19.4,19.4,19.4,19.4,19.4,19.4,19.4,19.4,19.4,19.4,19.4,19.4],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3683445","event_id":"867670","slug":"will-lake-powells-seasonal-low-fall-below-3490-ft","question":"Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation fall below 3,490 ft?","group_item_title":"Below 3,490 ft","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 3,490.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves \"No.\" For reference, 3,490 feet is the minimum power pool elevation below which Glen Canyon Dam can no longer generate hydroelectric power.\n\nResolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.\n\nThe resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.335,0.665],"probability":0.335,"spread":0.55,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T21:49:59Z","end_date":"2027-04-15T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":184.441903,"volume_24hr":19.4,"prob_24h_change":0.26,"volume_24h_change":-40.9,"normalized_vol_24hr":3.5838327407836914,"normalized_volume":8.002861022949219,"liquidity":228.6787,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-21T20:40:04.482999Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-21T20:36:54.870914Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T22:06:56.644230Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-lake-powell-drop-1786980780361/will-lake-powells-seasonal-low-fall-below-3490-ft","event_title":"How low will Lake Powell drop?","chart_24h":[0.08,0.075,0.085,0.075,0.08,0.085,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.315,0.315,0.32,0.185,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.295,0.28,0.275,0.33,0.335]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3683443","event_id":"867670","slug":"will-lake-powells-seasonal-low-be-between-3500-and-3510-ft","question":"Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?","group_item_title":"3,500–3,510 ft","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 3,510.00 feet but does not fall below 3,500.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves \"No.\"\n\nResolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.\n\nThe resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.335,0.665],"probability":0.335,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T21:49:59Z","end_date":"2027-04-15T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":133.495733,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-59.867163,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":7.048747539520264,"liquidity":578.7354,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-21T03:47:37.455816Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-21T03:15:30.528713Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T22:06:56.644230Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-lake-powell-drop-1786980780361/will-lake-powells-seasonal-low-be-between-3500-and-3510-ft","event_title":"How low will Lake Powell drop?","chart_24h":[0.335,0.335,0.335]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3683442","event_id":"867670","slug":"will-lake-powells-seasonal-low-stay-above-3510-ft","question":"Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?","group_item_title":"Above 3,510 ft","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 does not fall below 3,510.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves \"No.\"\n\nResolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.\n\nThe resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.32,0.68],"probability":0.32,"spread":0.54,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T21:49:59Z","end_date":"2027-04-15T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":140.621537,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.21500000000000002,"volume_24h_change":-100.621537,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":7.198012828826904,"liquidity":234.2389,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-21T20:40:04.482999Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-21T20:36:54.870914Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T22:06:56.644230Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-lake-powell-drop-1786980780361/will-lake-powells-seasonal-low-stay-above-3510-ft","event_title":"How low will Lake Powell drop?","chart_24h":[0.105,0.105,0.105,0.185,0.165,0.16,0.175,0.315,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.25,0.235,0.235,0.235,0.235,0.235,0.265,0.305,0.33,0.32]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3683444","event_id":"867670","slug":"will-lake-powells-seasonal-low-be-between-3490-and-3500-ft","question":"Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,490 but below 3,500 ft?","group_item_title":"3,490–3,500 ft","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 3,500.00 feet but does not fall below 3,490.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves \"No.\"\n\nResolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.\n\nThe resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.225,0.775],"probability":0.225,"spread":0.39,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T21:49:59Z","end_date":"2027-04-15T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":74.3,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.17,"volume_24h_change":-54.3,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":5.479150772094727,"liquidity":203.6294,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-21T20:09:16.596133Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-21T20:05:47.249393Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T22:06:56.644230Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-lake-powell-drop-1786980780361/will-lake-powells-seasonal-low-be-between-3490-and-3500-ft","event_title":"How low will Lake Powell drop?","chart_24h":[0.395,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.27,0.255,0.26,0.245,0.26,0.145,0.26,0.255,0.24,0.21,0.28,0.265,0.225]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/867670","as_of":"2026-08-21T21:07:21.075208Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"How low will Lake Powell drop?\" — top market at 34% probability across 4 outcomes","source_url":null}}