{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/867670","as_of":"2026-10-06T14:53:54.718644Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"How low will Lake Powell drop?\" — \"Above 3,510 ft\" leads at 58% across 4 outcomes as of 2026-10-06 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/867670","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-lake-powell-drop-1786980780361"},"source":"polymarket","id":"867670","ticker":"how-low-will-lake-powell-drop-1786980780361","slug":"how-low-will-lake-powell-drop-1786980780361","title":"How low will Lake Powell drop?","description":"This market resolves based on the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam) between market creation and March 31, 2027, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms.\n\nBecause a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.\n\nThe resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.\n\nIn the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-low-will-lake-powell-drop-1786980780360-rkz7FlpXCesT.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-low-will-lake-powell-drop-1786980780360-rkz7FlpXCesT.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T21:49:59Z","end_date":"2027-04-16T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":30691.867728999998,"volume_24hr":9353.79207,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":32.419227600097656,"normalized_volume":24.2595157623291,"liquidity":4166.85084,"open_interest":6271.852460999999,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"101984","slug":"water","label":"water"},{"id":"105721","slug":"drought","label":"Drought"},{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"165","slug":"united-states","label":"United States"},{"id":"103037","slug":"climate-science","label":"Climate & Science"},{"id":"496","slug":"natural-disasters","label":"Natural Disasters"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Above 3,510 ft","top_outcome_probability":0.585,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.09000000000000008,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":472.28828599999974,"updated_at":"2026-10-06T14:41:07.247841Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T14:41:07.247841Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T22:06:56.586797Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-lake-powell-drop-1786980780361","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,8042.922672,8779.605703,8779.605703,8780.825703,8792.825703,9353.79207],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":true,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3683442","event_id":"867670","slug":"will-lake-powells-seasonal-low-stay-above-3510-ft","question":"Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?","group_item_title":"Above 3,510 ft","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 does not fall below 3,510.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves \"No.\"\n\nResolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.\n\nThe resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.\n\nIn the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.585,0.415],"probability":0.585,"spread":0.05,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T21:49:59Z","end_date":"2027-04-16T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":10991.814511999999,"volume_24hr":1542.3340009999997,"prob_24h_change":-0.09000000000000008,"volume_24h_change":472.28828599999974,"normalized_vol_24hr":22.111074447631836,"normalized_volume":25.402746200561523,"liquidity":705.6895,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-06T14:41:07.852011Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T14:41:07.852011Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T22:06:56.644230Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-lake-powell-drop-1786980780361/will-lake-powells-seasonal-low-stay-above-3510-ft","event_title":"How low will Lake Powell drop?","chart_24h":[0.675,0.665,0.665,0.665,0.585,0.545]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3683443","event_id":"867670","slug":"will-lake-powells-seasonal-low-be-between-3500-and-3510-ft","question":"Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?","group_item_title":"3,500–3,510 ft","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 3,510.00 feet but does not fall below 3,500.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves \"No.\"\n\nResolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.\n\nThe resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.\n\nIn the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.405,0.595],"probability":0.405,"spread":0.05,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T21:49:59Z","end_date":"2027-04-16T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":13564.016238,"volume_24hr":5537.526957,"prob_24h_change":0.11500000000000005,"volume_24h_change":400.9200000000001,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.477481842041016,"normalized_volume":26.56369972229004,"liquidity":709.8272,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-06T14:41:07.852011Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T14:41:07.852011Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T22:06:56.644230Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-lake-powell-drop-1786980780361/will-lake-powells-seasonal-low-be-between-3500-and-3510-ft","event_title":"How low will Lake Powell drop?","chart_24h":[0.29,0.32,0.315,0.3,0.32,0.345]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3683445","event_id":"867670","slug":"will-lake-powells-seasonal-low-fall-below-3490-ft","question":"Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation fall below 3,490 ft?","group_item_title":"Below 3,490 ft","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 3,490.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves \"No.\" For reference, 3,490 feet is the minimum power pool elevation below which Glen Canyon Dam can no longer generate hydroelectric power.\n\nResolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.\n\nThe resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.\n\nIn the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.006,0.994],"probability":0.006,"spread":0.004,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T21:49:59Z","end_date":"2027-04-16T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":2851.3644889999996,"volume_24hr":1131.742223,"prob_24h_change":0.0005000000000000004,"volume_24h_change":255.322223,"normalized_vol_24hr":20.287254333496094,"normalized_volume":18.570653915405273,"liquidity":1586.23065,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-06T14:18:41.681365Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T14:18:41.681365Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T22:06:56.644230Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-lake-powell-drop-1786980780361/will-lake-powells-seasonal-low-fall-below-3490-ft","event_title":"How low will Lake Powell drop?","chart_24h":[0.0055,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006,0.006]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3683444","event_id":"867670","slug":"will-lake-powells-seasonal-low-be-between-3490-and-3500-ft","question":"Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,490 but below 3,500 ft?","group_item_title":"3,490–3,500 ft","description":"This market resolves \"Yes\" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 3,500.00 feet but does not fall below 3,490.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves \"No.\"\n\nResolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.\n\nThe resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.\n\nIn the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0055,0.9945],"probability":0.0055,"spread":0.007,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-17T21:49:59Z","end_date":"2027-04-16T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":3370.18249,"volume_24hr":1227.698889,"prob_24h_change":-0.005000000000000001,"volume_24h_change":1227.698889,"normalized_vol_24hr":20.759122848510742,"normalized_volume":19.3590087890625,"liquidity":792.84505,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-06T14:18:41.681365Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T14:18:41.681365Z","added_at":"2026-08-17T22:06:56.644230Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-lake-powell-drop-1786980780361/will-lake-powells-seasonal-low-be-between-3490-and-3500-ft","event_title":"How low will Lake Powell drop?","chart_24h":[0.0105,0.011,0.0105,0.011,0.011,0.011,0.0105,0.003,0.003,0.0055]}]}