{"source":"polymarket","id":"872338","ticker":"will-russia-capture-the-royal-cafe-alex-in-kostyantynivka-byptptpt","slug":"will-russia-capture-the-royal-cafe-alex-in-kostyantynivka-byptptpt","title":"Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe building will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.\n\nAny continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:\n- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain\n- Assessed Russian Advances\n\nShading under the following layers will not qualify:\n- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas\n- Claimed Russian Territory\n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nBuilding Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png\n\nBuilding Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png\n\nKostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-dovha-balka-by-march-31-aP9PYGHkiy3d.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-dovha-balka-by-march-31-aP9PYGHkiy3d.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-18T19:45:50Z","end_date":"2027-04-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":52109.733027999995,"volume_24hr":2153.205329,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":25.505050659179688,"normalized_volume":26.81059455871582,"liquidity":13685.8528,"open_interest":17065.557958999998,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"102486","slug":"ukraine-map","label":"Ukraine Map"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"March 31, 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.65,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.395,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":662.526757,"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:28:14.601023Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:28:14.601023Z","added_at":"2026-08-18T19:49:29.444867Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-the-royal-cafe-alex-in-kostyantynivka-byptptpt","chart_24h":[245.799444,245.799444,245.799444,245.799444,245.799444,245.799444,245.799444,245.799444,165.799444,165.799444,165.799444,185.399444,185.399444,19.6,19.6,19.6,19.6,19.6,19.6,19.6,83.593685,83.593685,237.895329,237.895329,237.895329,237.895329,751.5153290000001,1871.865329,1871.865329,1874.935329,1914.935329],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"5234719","event_id":"872338","slug":"will-russia-capture-the-royal-cafe-alex-in-kostyantynivka-by-march-31-2027","question":"Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?","group_item_title":"March 31, 2027","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe building will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.\n\nAny continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:\n- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain\n- Assessed Russian Advances\n\nShading under the following layers will not qualify:\n- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas\n- Claimed Russian Territory\n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nBuilding Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png\n\nBuilding Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png\n\nKostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-dovha-balka-by-march-31-aP9PYGHkiy3d.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-dovha-balka-by-march-31-aP9PYGHkiy3d.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.65,0.35],"probability":0.65,"spread":0.1,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T14:42:27Z","end_date":"2027-04-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":662.526757,"volume_24hr":662.526757,"prob_24h_change":0.395,"volume_24h_change":662.526757,"normalized_vol_24hr":18.76235008239746,"normalized_volume":12.386540412902832,"liquidity":321.1503,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T05:51:57.715498Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T05:51:57.715498Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T14:54:40.347443Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-the-royal-cafe-alex-in-kostyantynivka-byptptpt/will-russia-capture-the-royal-cafe-alex-in-kostyantynivka-by-march-31-2027","event_title":"Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?","chart_24h":[0.255,0.285,0.29,0.275,0.28,0.285,0.295,0.31,0.445,0.415,0.45,0.455,0.605,0.62,0.65]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3708873","event_id":"872338","slug":"will-russia-capture-the-royal-cafe-alex-in-kostyantynivka-by-december-31-2026","question":"Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"December 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe building will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.\n\nAny continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:\n- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain\n- Assessed Russian Advances\n\nShading under the following layers will not qualify:\n- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas\n- Claimed Russian Territory\n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nBuilding Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png\n\nBuilding Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png\n\nKostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-dovha-balka-by-march-31-aP9PYGHkiy3d.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-dovha-balka-by-march-31-aP9PYGHkiy3d.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.435,0.565],"probability":0.435,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-18T19:45:51Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":15910.610518,"volume_24hr":532.848572,"prob_24h_change":-0.020000000000000018,"volume_24h_change":452.848572,"normalized_vol_24hr":17.527511596679688,"normalized_volume":27.462026596069336,"liquidity":10004.3621,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:28:15.352443Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:28:15.352443Z","added_at":"2026-08-18T19:49:29.491518Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-the-royal-cafe-alex-in-kostyantynivka-byptptpt/will-russia-capture-the-royal-cafe-alex-in-kostyantynivka-by-december-31-2026","event_title":"Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?","chart_24h":[0.455,0.455,0.455,0.455,0.455,0.455,0.455,0.455,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.435,0.435,0.435,0.435]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5234720","event_id":"872338","slug":"will-russia-capture-the-royal-cafe-alex-in-kostyantynivka-by-november-30-2026","question":"Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by November 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 30","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe building will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.\n\nAny continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:\n- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain\n- Assessed Russian Advances\n\nShading under the following layers will not qualify:\n- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas\n- Claimed Russian Territory\n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nBuilding Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png\n\nBuilding Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png\n\nKostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-dovha-balka-by-march-31-aP9PYGHkiy3d.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-dovha-balka-by-march-31-aP9PYGHkiy3d.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.31,0.69],"probability":0.31,"spread":0.16,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T14:42:27Z","end_date":"2026-12-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":938.23,"volume_24hr":938.23,"prob_24h_change":0.05499999999999999,"volume_24h_change":938.23,"normalized_vol_24hr":20.82284164428711,"normalized_volume":13.74683666229248,"liquidity":212.8689,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:04:39.676138Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:04:39.676138Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T14:54:40.347443Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-the-royal-cafe-alex-in-kostyantynivka-byptptpt/will-russia-capture-the-royal-cafe-alex-in-kostyantynivka-by-november-30-2026","event_title":"Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?","chart_24h":[0.255,0.265,0.29,0.23,0.225,0.23,0.235,0.24,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.315,0.31,0.31]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3708872","event_id":"872338","slug":"will-russia-capture-the-royal-cafe-alex-in-kostyantynivka-by-october-31-2026","question":"Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe building will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.\n\nAny continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:\n- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain\n- Assessed Russian Advances\n\nShading under the following layers will not qualify:\n- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas\n- Claimed Russian Territory\n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nBuilding Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png\n\nBuilding Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png\n\nKostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-dovha-balka-by-march-31-aP9PYGHkiy3d.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-dovha-balka-by-march-31-aP9PYGHkiy3d.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.09,0.91],"probability":0.09,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-18T19:45:50Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":17171.998820999997,"volume_24hr":19.6,"prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":-146.199444,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.067427158355713,"normalized_volume":27.89682960510254,"liquidity":2964.6959,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:28:15.352443Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:28:15.352443Z","added_at":"2026-08-18T19:49:29.491518Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-the-royal-cafe-alex-in-kostyantynivka-byptptpt/will-russia-capture-the-royal-cafe-alex-in-kostyantynivka-by-october-31-2026","event_title":"Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?","chart_24h":[0.1,0.095,0.085,0.09,0.085,0.085,0.09,0.085,0.09,0.085,0.09,0.085,0.09,0.09]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3708871","event_id":"872338","slug":"will-russia-capture-the-royal-cafe-alex-in-kostyantynivka-by-september-30-2026","question":"Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"September 30","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe building will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.\n\nAny continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:\n- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain\n- Assessed Russian Advances\n\nShading under the following layers will not qualify:\n- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas\n- Claimed Russian Territory\n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nBuilding Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png\n\nBuilding Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png\n\nKostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-dovha-balka-by-march-31-aP9PYGHkiy3d.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-dovha-balka-by-march-31-aP9PYGHkiy3d.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-08-18T19:45:51Z","end_date":"2026-10-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-10-01T06:35:56Z","volume":17426.366931999997,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":27.98102378845215,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T04:45:41.075789Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T04:45:41.075789Z","added_at":"2026-08-18T19:49:29.491518Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-the-royal-cafe-alex-in-kostyantynivka-byptptpt/will-russia-capture-the-royal-cafe-alex-in-kostyantynivka-by-september-30-2026","event_title":"Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/872338","as_of":"2026-10-04T07:41:45.546017Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?\" — top market at 31% probability across 5 outcomes","source_url":null}}