{"source":"polymarket","id":"876500","ticker":"skin-cancer-vaccine-fda-approved-by-december-31-2027","slug":"skin-cancer-vaccine-fda-approved-by-december-31-2027","title":"FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by December 31, 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants approval of intismeran autogene for any indication by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIntismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program.\n\nDifferences in neoantigen composition between patients will not affect resolution. Changes to the product's formulation will not affect resolution, provided the FDA approves the product described above. Approval as part of a combination regimen will qualify. Approval for a narrower population than the one studied in INTerpath-001 will qualify. Approval for an indication other than melanoma will also qualify. Both standard and accelerated approval will qualify.\n\nAn approval is defined as:\nFor new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)\nFor already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced\nFor generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)\nFor biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application\n\nThe following constitute qualifying approvals:\nStandard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs\n\nThe following do not constitute qualifying approvals:\nApprovable letters that require additional actions before approval\nTentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration\nFDA requests for additional information or studies\nExtension of Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) dates\nApproval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only\nApproval only for export or for use outside the United States\nEmergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval\nComplete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form\n\nIf the listed drug is approved before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.\n\nConditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/modv-skin-cancer-vaccine-9653d80036.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/modv-skin-cancer-vaccine-9653d80036.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-19T17:49:35Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":19831.574604000005,"volume_24hr":19872.57460400001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":41.937137603759766,"normalized_volume":22.090761184692383,"liquidity":12152.2969,"open_interest":12411.47199,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"101489","slug":"fda","label":"FDA"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"104924","slug":"cancer","label":"Cancer"},{"id":"106119","slug":"moderna","label":"Moderna"},{"id":"74","slug":"science","label":"Science"},{"id":"101490","slug":"vaccine","label":"vaccine"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.725,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.015000000000000013,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":18992.569716,"updated_at":"2026-08-20T02:44:56.559175Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-20T02:44:56.559175Z","added_at":"2026-08-19T18:13:18.827744Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/skin-cancer-vaccine-fda-approved-by-december-31-2027","chart_24h":[0.0,866.08,1760.264814,4661.274814,4661.274814,4707.578278000001,5118.819716000009,18608.479716,18992.289716000007,18992.569716],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3725541","event_id":"876500","slug":"skin-cancer-vaccine-fda-approved-by-december-31-2027","question":"Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants approval of intismeran autogene for any indication by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIntismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program.\n\nDifferences in neoantigen composition between patients will not affect resolution. Changes to the product's formulation will not affect resolution, provided the FDA approves the product described above. Approval as part of a combination regimen will qualify. Approval for a narrower population than the one studied in INTerpath-001 will qualify. Approval for an indication other than melanoma will also qualify. Both standard and accelerated approval will qualify.\n\nAn approval is defined as:\nFor new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)\nFor already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced\nFor generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)\nFor biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application\n\nThe following constitute qualifying approvals:\nStandard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs\n\nThe following do not constitute qualifying approvals:\nApprovable letters that require additional actions before approval\nTentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration\nFDA requests for additional information or studies\nExtension of Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) dates\nApproval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only\nApproval only for export or for use outside the United States\nEmergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval\nComplete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form\n\nIf the listed drug is approved before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.\n\nConditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/modv-skin-cancer-vaccine-9653d80036.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/modv-skin-cancer-vaccine-9653d80036.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.725,0.275],"probability":0.725,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-19T17:49:35Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":19831.574604000005,"volume_24hr":19872.57460400001,"prob_24h_change":0.015000000000000013,"volume_24h_change":18992.569716,"normalized_vol_24hr":43.00728225708008,"normalized_volume":28.463855743408203,"liquidity":12152.2969,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-20T02:44:56.672802Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-20T02:44:56.672802Z","added_at":"2026-08-19T18:13:18.894286Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/skin-cancer-vaccine-fda-approved-by-december-31-2027/skin-cancer-vaccine-fda-approved-by-december-31-2027","event_title":"FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by December 31, 2027?","chart_24h":[0.71,0.405,0.435,0.585,0.585,0.585,0.72,0.725,0.725]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/876500","as_of":"2026-08-20T02:47:39.282729Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by December 31, 2027?\" — top market at 72% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}