{"source":"polymarket","id":"880594","ticker":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-08-25","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-08-25","title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of August 25, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-20T13:00:28Z","end_date":"2026-08-27T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":220.68,"volume_24hr":202.99915,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.360249519348145,"normalized_volume":6.640250205993652,"liquidity":25.76,"open_interest":204.275,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"101757","slug":"recurring","label":"Recurring"},{"id":"105721","slug":"drought","label":"Drought"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"10 or more states","top_outcome_probability":0.9945,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.5445,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":10.0,"updated_at":"2026-08-27T18:27:08.115448Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-27T18:27:08.115448Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T14:16:49.085148Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-08-25","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,104.97915,104.97915,104.97915,192.99915,192.99915,202.99915,202.99915],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3743540","event_id":"880594","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-08-25-10-plus","question":"Will 10 or more states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?","group_item_title":"10 or more states","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.9945,0.0055],"probability":0.9945,"spread":0.009,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-20T13:00:28Z","end_date":"2026-08-27T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10.0,"volume_24hr":10.0,"prob_24h_change":0.5445,"volume_24h_change":10.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":2.378756523132324,"normalized_volume":1.6869748830795288,"liquidity":6.38,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-27T18:31:53.134042Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-27T17:05:55.303798Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T14:16:49.178348Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-08-25/states-in-d4-drought-2026-08-25-10-plus","event_title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of August 25, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.45,0.49,0.495,0.47,0.475,0.495,0.495,0.47,0.495,0.495,0.5,0.475,0.495,0.515,0.515,0.415,0.515,0.515,0.515,0.515,0.52,0.52,0.9945,0.9945]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3743531","event_id":"880594","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-08-25-0","question":"Will no states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?","group_item_title":"0 states","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.485,0.515],"probability":0.485,"spread":0.97,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-20T13:00:28Z","end_date":"2026-08-27T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":53.68085,"volume_24hr":36.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":36.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.394172191619873,"normalized_volume":4.697824478149414,"liquidity":3.64,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-27T18:31:53.134042Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-27T18:27:08.423406Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T14:16:49.178348Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-08-25/states-in-d4-drought-2026-08-25-0","event_title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of August 25, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.455,0.465,0.495,0.465,0.48,0.5,0.465,0.475,0.5,0.49,0.455,0.47,0.515,0.42,0.515,0.515,0.5,0.5,0.495,0.495,0.49,0.485]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3743539","event_id":"880594","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-08-25-7-9","question":"Will 7-9 states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?","group_item_title":"7-9 states","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.48,0.52],"probability":0.48,"spread":0.96,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-20T13:00:28Z","end_date":"2026-08-27T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":36.0,"volume_24hr":36.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":36.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.394172191619873,"normalized_volume":3.825457811355591,"liquidity":4.82,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-27T18:31:53.134042Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-27T18:27:08.423406Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T14:16:49.178348Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-08-25/states-in-d4-drought-2026-08-25-7-9","event_title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of August 25, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.475,0.475,0.505,0.46,0.495,0.5,0.5,0.485,0.47,0.485,0.47,0.48,0.5,0.515,0.515,0.415,0.515,0.515,0.5,0.5,0.495,0.495,0.485,0.48]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3743538","event_id":"880594","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-08-25-5-6","question":"Will 5-6 states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?","group_item_title":"5-6 states","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.475,0.525],"probability":0.475,"spread":0.95,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-20T13:00:28Z","end_date":"2026-08-27T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":42.5,"volume_24hr":42.5,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":42.5,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.888547420501709,"normalized_volume":4.176060199737549,"liquidity":3.05,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-27T18:31:53.134042Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-27T18:27:08.423406Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T14:16:49.178348Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-08-25/states-in-d4-drought-2026-08-25-5-6","event_title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of August 25, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.475,0.465,0.485,0.475,0.465,0.49,0.48,0.495,0.475,0.475,0.47,0.465,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.41,0.51,0.51,0.515,0.515,0.51,0.495,0.495,0.48,0.475]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3743533","event_id":"880594","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-08-25-1-2","question":"Will 1-2 states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?","group_item_title":"1-2 states","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.47,0.53],"probability":0.47,"spread":0.94,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-20T13:00:28Z","end_date":"2026-08-27T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":36.0,"volume_24hr":36.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":36.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.394172191619873,"normalized_volume":3.825457811355591,"liquidity":3.64,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-27T18:31:53.134042Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-27T18:27:08.423406Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T14:16:49.178348Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-08-25/states-in-d4-drought-2026-08-25-1-2","event_title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of August 25, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.47,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.485,0.495,0.465,0.515,0.505,0.51,0.49,0.505,0.515,0.415,0.515,0.515,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.495,0.495,0.475,0.47]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3743535","event_id":"880594","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-08-25-3-4","question":"Will 3-4 states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?","group_item_title":"3-4 states","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.465,0.535],"probability":0.465,"spread":0.93,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-20T13:00:28Z","end_date":"2026-08-27T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":42.49915,"volume_24hr":42.49915,"prob_24h_change":-0.004999999999999949,"volume_24h_change":42.49915,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.888486385345459,"normalized_volume":4.1760172843933105,"liquidity":4.23,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-27T18:31:53.134042Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-27T18:27:08.423406Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T14:16:49.178348Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-08-25/states-in-d4-drought-2026-08-25-3-4","event_title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of August 25, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.47,0.475,0.465,0.455,0.45,0.48,0.485,0.475,0.47,0.49,0.465,0.475,0.475,0.51,0.51,0.41,0.51,0.51,0.515,0.51,0.51,0.495,0.495,0.47,0.465]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/880594","as_of":"2026-08-27T18:42:38.590728Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of August 25, 2026?\" — top market at 48% probability across 6 outcomes","source_url":null}}