{"source":"polymarket","id":"886880","ticker":"republicans-favored-to-win-the-senate-on-nate-silvers-bulletin-byptptpt","slug":"republicans-favored-to-win-the-senate-on-nate-silvers-bulletin-byptptpt","title":"Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, at any point by the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the Silver Bulletin Flipr Forecast of the 2026 Senate election gives Republicans a greater than 50% chance to control the United States Senate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". A 50.0% chance shall not be sufficient to resolve this market. \n\nThe resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2026 Flipr Forecast of Senate control, using the \"Deluxe\" version of the forecast, that can be found at  https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model. \n\nChanges in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the forecast will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If either Silver Bulletin or Flipr rebrand or otherwise change names or urls, this market will resolve based on the clearly-identified successor, should one exist. If Silver Bulletin's \"Deluxe\" Flipr model becomes permanently unavailable, the \"Classic\" model will be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/republicans-favored-to-win-the-senate-on-nate-silvers-bulletin-byptptpt-RoVNjC0luv8Y.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/republicans-favored-to-win-the-senate-on-nate-silvers-bulletin-byptptpt-RoVNjC0luv8Y.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-21T20:26:31Z","end_date":"2026-11-03T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":526.005061,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.9358491897583,"liquidity":138.3708,"open_interest":2.116436,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"100199","slug":"senate-elections","label":"Senate"},{"id":"102289","slug":"midterms","label":"Midterms"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100482","slug":"nate-silver","label":"Nate Silver"},{"id":"1101","slug":"us-presidential-election","label":"US Election"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"October 31","top_outcome_probability":0.49,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.015000000000000013,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-10T22:53:55.420304Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-10T22:53:55.420304Z","added_at":"2026-08-21T20:39:51.596318Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/republicans-favored-to-win-the-senate-on-nate-silvers-bulletin-byptptpt","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3767070","event_id":"886880","slug":"republicans-favored-to-win-the-senate-on-nate-silvers-bulletin-by-october-31","question":"Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by October 31?","group_item_title":"October 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, at any point by the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the Silver Bulletin Flipr Forecast of the 2026 Senate election gives Republicans a greater than 50% chance to control the United States Senate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". A 50.0% chance shall not be sufficient to resolve this market. \n\nThe resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2026 Flipr Forecast of Senate control, using the \"Deluxe\" version of the forecast, that can be found at  https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model. \n\nChanges in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the forecast will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If either Silver Bulletin or Flipr rebrand or otherwise change names or urls, this market will resolve based on the clearly-identified successor, should one exist. If Silver Bulletin's \"Deluxe\" Flipr model becomes permanently unavailable, the \"Classic\" model will be used. \n\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.49,0.51],"probability":0.49,"spread":0.82,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-21T20:26:31Z","end_date":"2026-11-03T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.015000000000000013,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":81.8175,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-10T14:08:25.242487Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-10T14:08:25.242487Z","added_at":"2026-08-21T20:39:51.652641Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/republicans-favored-to-win-the-senate-on-nate-silvers-bulletin-byptptpt/republicans-favored-to-win-the-senate-on-nate-silvers-bulletin-by-october-31","event_title":"Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by...?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.535,0.49,0.48,0.505,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.455,0.5,0.49]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3767069","event_id":"886880","slug":"republicans-favored-to-win-the-senate-on-nate-silvers-bulletin-by-september-30","question":"Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by September 30?","group_item_title":"September 30","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, at any point by the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the Silver Bulletin Flipr Forecast of the 2026 Senate election gives Republicans a greater than 50% chance to control the United States Senate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". A 50.0% chance shall not be sufficient to resolve this market. \n\nThe resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2026 Flipr Forecast of Senate control, using the \"Deluxe\" version of the forecast, that can be found at  https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model. \n\nChanges in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the forecast will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If either Silver Bulletin or Flipr rebrand or otherwise change names or urls, this market will resolve based on the clearly-identified successor, should one exist. If Silver Bulletin's \"Deluxe\" Flipr model becomes permanently unavailable, the \"Classic\" model will be used. \n\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.485,0.515],"probability":0.485,"spread":0.85,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-21T20:26:31Z","end_date":"2026-11-03T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1.05262,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":0.15172156691551208,"liquidity":31.6723,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-10T19:42:35.697333Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-10T19:42:35.697333Z","added_at":"2026-08-21T20:39:51.652641Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/republicans-favored-to-win-the-senate-on-nate-silvers-bulletin-byptptpt/republicans-favored-to-win-the-senate-on-nate-silvers-bulletin-by-september-30","event_title":"Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.485,0.495,0.485,0.495,0.51,0.44,0.515,0.485,0.475,0.485,0.485,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.475,0.475,0.485,0.485]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3767068","event_id":"886880","slug":"republicans-favored-to-win-the-senate-on-nate-silvers-bulletin-by-september-15","question":"Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by September 15?","group_item_title":"September 15","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, at any point by the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the Silver Bulletin Flipr Forecast of the 2026 Senate election gives Republicans a greater than 50% chance to control the United States Senate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". A 50.0% chance shall not be sufficient to resolve this market. \n\nThe resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2026 Flipr Forecast of Senate control, using the \"Deluxe\" version of the forecast, that can be found at  https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model. \n\nChanges in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the forecast will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If either Silver Bulletin or Flipr rebrand or otherwise change names or urls, this market will resolve based on the clearly-identified successor, should one exist. If Silver Bulletin's \"Deluxe\" Flipr model becomes permanently unavailable, the \"Classic\" model will be used. \n\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.4,0.6],"probability":0.4,"spread":0.66,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-21T20:26:31Z","end_date":"2026-11-03T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1.063816,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":0.1540256142616272,"liquidity":25.3731,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-10T20:58:58.379437Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-10T20:58:58.379437Z","added_at":"2026-08-21T20:39:51.652641Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/republicans-favored-to-win-the-senate-on-nate-silvers-bulletin-byptptpt/republicans-favored-to-win-the-senate-on-nate-silvers-bulletin-by-september-15","event_title":"Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by...?","chart_24h":[0.39,0.39,0.4,0.395,0.41,0.41,0.405,0.405,0.39,0.395,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.39,0.4]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3767067","event_id":"886880","slug":"republicans-favored-to-win-the-senate-on-nate-silvers-bulletin-by-august-31","question":"Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by August 31?","group_item_title":"August 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, at any point by the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the Silver Bulletin Flipr Forecast of the 2026 Senate election gives Republicans a greater than 50% chance to control the United States Senate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". A 50.0% chance shall not be sufficient to resolve this market. \n\nThe resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2026 Flipr Forecast of Senate control, using the \"Deluxe\" version of the forecast, that can be found at  https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model. \n\nChanges in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the forecast will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If either Silver Bulletin or Flipr rebrand or otherwise change names or urls, this market will resolve based on the clearly-identified successor, should one exist. If Silver Bulletin's \"Deluxe\" Flipr model becomes permanently unavailable, the \"Classic\" model will be used. \n\n","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-08-21T20:26:31Z","end_date":"2026-11-03T23:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-09-08T08:47:45Z","volume":523.888625,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":11.509033203125,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-09T08:49:02.524745Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-09T08:49:02.524745Z","added_at":"2026-08-21T20:39:51.652641Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/republicans-favored-to-win-the-senate-on-nate-silvers-bulletin-byptptpt/republicans-favored-to-win-the-senate-on-nate-silvers-bulletin-by-august-31","event_title":"Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by...?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/886880","as_of":"2026-09-10T23:09:02.617077Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by...?\" — top market at 49% probability across 4 outcomes","source_url":null}}