{"source":"polymarket","id":"906699","ticker":"will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-byptptpt","slug":"will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-byptptpt","title":"Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either:\n\n(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or\n\n(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.\n\nQualifying actions include, but are not limited to:\nannouncing a new wave or phase of mobilization;\nannouncing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;\nannouncing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or\nMandating a specific number of new call-ups.\n\nThe following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.\n\nReserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ \"On Military Duty and Military Service\" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria: \nauthorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the \"special military operation\" or their assignment to combat formations;\npermits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;\nextends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve; \nestablishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens \n\nThe primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-byptptpt-RKQZlLMpT7x3.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-byptptpt-RKQZlLMpT7x3.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-24T21:38:22Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":29140.87567800001,"volume_24hr":29140.875678,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":43.944358825683594,"normalized_volume":24.05560874938965,"liquidity":34144.9424,"open_interest":8274.435677,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"193","slug":"military","label":"Military"},{"id":"216","slug":"zelenskyy","label":"zelenskyy"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"105159","slug":"mobilization","label":"Mobilization"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.335,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":250.946967,"updated_at":"2026-08-25T05:18:41.335690Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-25T05:18:41.335690Z","added_at":"2026-08-24T21:59:22.081531Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-byptptpt","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,6248.078778,18795.915442999998,26687.505678,26707.505678,27200.895678],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3860600","event_id":"906699","slug":"will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-by-december-31-2026","question":"Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"December 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either:\n\n(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or\n\n(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.\n\nQualifying actions include, but are not limited to:\nannouncing a new wave or phase of mobilization;\nannouncing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;\nannouncing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or\nMandating a specific number of new call-ups.\n\nThe following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.\n\nReserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ \"On Military Duty and Military Service\" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria: \nauthorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the \"special military operation\" or their assignment to combat formations;\npermits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;\nextends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve; \nestablishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens \n\nThe primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-byptptpt-RKQZlLMpT7x3.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-byptptpt-RKQZlLMpT7x3.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.335,0.665],"probability":0.335,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-24T21:38:22Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":250.946967,"volume_24hr":250.946967,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":250.946967,"normalized_vol_24hr":13.205387115478516,"normalized_volume":8.96965503692627,"liquidity":2331.7266,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-08-25T04:24:17.788430Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-25T04:24:17.788430Z","added_at":"2026-08-24T21:59:22.114010Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-byptptpt/will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-by-december-31-2026","event_title":"Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?","chart_24h":[0.335,0.33,0.285,0.335,0.365,0.335,0.335]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3860599","event_id":"906699","slug":"will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-by-october-31-2026","question":"Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either:\n\n(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or\n\n(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.\n\nQualifying actions include, but are not limited to:\nannouncing a new wave or phase of mobilization;\nannouncing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;\nannouncing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or\nMandating a specific number of new call-ups.\n\nThe following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.\n\nReserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ \"On Military Duty and Military Service\" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria: \nauthorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the \"special military operation\" or their assignment to combat formations;\npermits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;\nextends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve; \nestablishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens \n\nThe primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-byptptpt-RKQZlLMpT7x3.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-byptptpt-RKQZlLMpT7x3.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.22,0.78],"probability":0.22,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-24T21:38:22Z","end_date":"2026-10-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":603.243951,"volume_24hr":603.243951,"prob_24h_change":-0.014999999999999986,"volume_24h_change":603.243951,"normalized_vol_24hr":17.714271545410156,"normalized_volume":12.032278060913086,"liquidity":10384.254,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-08-25T04:54:40.517632Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-25T04:51:58.560684Z","added_at":"2026-08-24T21:59:22.114010Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-byptptpt/will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-by-october-31-2026","event_title":"Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?","chart_24h":[0.235,0.23,0.205,0.225,0.23,0.155,0.185,0.22]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3860598","event_id":"906699","slug":"will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-by-september-30-2026","question":"Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"September 30","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either:\n\n(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or\n\n(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.\n\nQualifying actions include, but are not limited to:\nannouncing a new wave or phase of mobilization;\nannouncing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;\nannouncing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or\nMandating a specific number of new call-ups.\n\nThe following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.\n\nReserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ \"On Military Duty and Military Service\" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria: \nauthorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the \"special military operation\" or their assignment to combat formations;\npermits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;\nextends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve; \nestablishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens \n\nThe primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-byptptpt-RKQZlLMpT7x3.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-byptptpt-RKQZlLMpT7x3.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.075,0.925],"probability":0.075,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-24T21:38:22Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":28286.68476000001,"volume_24hr":28286.68476,"prob_24h_change":-0.11,"volume_24h_change":28286.68476,"normalized_vol_24hr":45.382328033447266,"normalized_volume":30.825586318969727,"liquidity":19160.6261,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-08-25T05:22:51.582246Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-25T05:18:41.385585Z","added_at":"2026-08-24T21:59:22.114010Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-byptptpt/will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-by-september-30-2026","event_title":"Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?","chart_24h":[0.185,0.125,0.105,0.085,0.09,0.065,0.075]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/906699","as_of":"2026-08-25T05:38:26.615988Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?\" — top market at 8% probability across 3 outcomes","source_url":null}}