{"source":"polymarket","id":"920953","ticker":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-01","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-01","title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-27T13:00:24Z","end_date":"2026-09-03T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":421.658,"volume_24hr":279.6277,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.237685203552246,"normalized_volume":8.319522857666016,"liquidity":56.987,"open_interest":421.657997,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"101757","slug":"recurring","label":"Recurring"},{"id":"105721","slug":"drought","label":"Drought"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"10 or more states","top_outcome_probability":0.505,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.044999999999999984,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":47.97,"updated_at":"2026-09-04T03:18:37.372793Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-04T03:18:37.372793Z","added_at":"2026-08-27T13:06:44.420173Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-01","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,11.9797,279.6277,279.6277,279.6277,279.6277,279.6277,279.6277,279.6277,279.6277,279.6277,279.6277,279.6277,279.6277,279.6277,279.6277,279.6277,279.6277,279.6277,279.6277,279.6277,279.6277],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3931085","event_id":"920953","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-01-10-plus","question":"Will 10 or more states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?","group_item_title":"10 or more states","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.505,0.495],"probability":0.505,"spread":0.99,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-27T13:00:24Z","end_date":"2026-09-03T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":136.97,"volume_24hr":47.97,"prob_24h_change":0.044999999999999984,"volume_24h_change":47.97,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.881289958953857,"normalized_volume":7.122291088104248,"liquidity":0.165,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-03T13:47:47.730519Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-03T13:47:47.730519Z","added_at":"2026-08-27T13:06:44.458664Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-01/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-01-10-plus","event_title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.46,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.995,0.505]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3931081","event_id":"920953","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-01-1-2","question":"Will 1-2 states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?","group_item_title":"1-2 states","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.3705,0.6295],"probability":0.3705,"spread":0.739,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-27T13:00:24Z","end_date":"2026-09-03T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":13.0,"volume_24hr":13.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.004500000000000004,"volume_24h_change":13.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":3.1651816368103027,"normalized_volume":2.0433645248413086,"liquidity":10.6,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-03T13:22:48.807058Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-03T13:22:48.807058Z","added_at":"2026-08-27T13:06:44.458664Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-01/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-01-1-2","event_title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.375,0.38,0.375,0.38,0.375,0.3705]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3931080","event_id":"920953","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-01-0","question":"Will no states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?","group_item_title":"0 states","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.37,0.63],"probability":0.37,"spread":0.74,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-27T13:00:24Z","end_date":"2026-09-03T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":127.9898,"volume_24hr":76.9797,"prob_24h_change":0.3595,"volume_24h_change":65.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.625140190124512,"normalized_volume":6.92903995513916,"liquidity":10.545,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-04T03:18:37.577361Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-04T03:18:37.577361Z","added_at":"2026-08-27T13:06:44.458664Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-01/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-01-0","event_title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.0105,0.0005,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3931082","event_id":"920953","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-01-3-4","question":"Will 3-4 states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?","group_item_title":"3-4 states","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.37,0.63],"probability":0.37,"spread":0.74,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-27T13:00:24Z","end_date":"2026-09-03T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":47.95210000000001,"volume_24hr":46.94200000000001,"prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":46.94200000000001,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.806457042694092,"normalized_volume":4.441559314727783,"liquidity":12.556,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-04T03:37:04.154076Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-04T03:37:04.154076Z","added_at":"2026-08-27T13:06:44.458664Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-01/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-01-3-4","event_title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.38,0.375,0.005,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3931083","event_id":"920953","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-01-5-6","question":"Will 5-6 states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?","group_item_title":"5-6 states","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.37,0.63],"probability":0.37,"spread":0.74,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-27T13:00:24Z","end_date":"2026-09-03T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":47.96,"volume_24hr":47.959999999999994,"prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":47.959999999999994,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.88056755065918,"normalized_volume":4.441927433013916,"liquidity":10.565,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-03T21:30:38.037589Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-03T21:30:38.037589Z","added_at":"2026-08-27T13:06:44.458664Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-01/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-01-5-6","event_title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.375,0.38,0.375,0.005,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3931084","event_id":"920953","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-01-7-9","question":"Will 7-9 states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?","group_item_title":"7-9 states","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.37,0.63],"probability":0.37,"spread":0.74,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-27T13:00:24Z","end_date":"2026-09-03T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":47.786100000000005,"volume_24hr":46.776,"prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":46.776,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.794261932373047,"normalized_volume":4.433807373046875,"liquidity":10.565,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-03T22:59:27.858268Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-03T22:59:27.858268Z","added_at":"2026-08-27T13:06:44.458664Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-01/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-01-7-9","event_title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.38,0.375,0.005,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/920953","as_of":"2026-09-04T03:47:34.161252Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?\" — top market at 37% probability across 6 outcomes","source_url":null}}