{"source":"polymarket","id":"921598","ticker":"iceland-eu-referendum-margin-of-victory","slug":"iceland-eu-referendum-margin-of-victory","title":"Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory","description":"The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between \"Yes\" and \"No\" in the referendum.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by \"Yes\" and \"No\". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf \"Yes\" and \"No\" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest \"No\" margin bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nIf the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/event-update-vXClWvyi6dxv.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/icelandic-european-union-membership-negotiations-referendum-20260608203641034-RAd495CRfbj7.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-27T16:20:15Z","end_date":"2026-08-29T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11135.40055,"volume_24hr":10601.259125999999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":33.8381233215332,"normalized_volume":19.761859893798828,"liquidity":53791.70067,"open_interest":6351.664307999999,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"100410","slug":"europe","label":"Europe"},{"id":"493","slug":"iceland","label":"iceland"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"456","slug":"referendum","label":"referendum"},{"id":"100262","slug":"european-union","label":"European Union "},{"id":"106155","slug":"iceland-european-union-referendum","label":"Iceland European Union Referendum"},{"id":"106154","slug":"iceland-referendum","label":"Iceland EU Referendum"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Other","top_outcome_probability":0.5,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-08-29T22:19:30.366865Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T22:19:30.366865Z","added_at":"2026-08-27T16:43:14.487812Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iceland-eu-referendum-margin-of-victory","chart_24h":[325.541424,325.541424,344.541424,344.541424,344.541424,344.541424,344.541424,344.541424,324.541424,56.142854,36.142854,36.142854,36.142854,36.142854,21.857141,21.857141,61.857141,61.857141,61.857141,68.753691,88.753691,88.753691,88.753691,88.753691,682.863691,684.921661,3319.792446,3449.5924459999997,3474.5924459999997,3491.7353049999997,7821.749126,10601.259125999999],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3933159","event_id":"921598","slug":"will-no-win-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum-by-less-than-3","question":"Will \"No\" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by less than 3%?","group_item_title":"No <3%","description":"The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between \"Yes\" and \"No\" in the referendum.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by \"Yes\" and \"No\". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf \"Yes\" and \"No\" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest \"No\" margin bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nIf the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.24,0.76],"probability":0.24,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-27T16:20:15Z","end_date":"2026-08-29T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1100.11857,"volume_24hr":1057.19,"prob_24h_change":-0.05499999999999999,"volume_24h_change":1014.26143,"normalized_vol_24hr":21.184524536132812,"normalized_volume":14.392976760864258,"liquidity":2557.6641,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Iceland"],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T22:19:30.618822Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T22:19:30.618822Z","added_at":"2026-08-27T16:43:14.550506Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iceland-eu-referendum-margin-of-victory/will-no-win-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum-by-less-than-3","event_title":"Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.295,0.3,0.295,0.3,0.295,0.295,0.295,0.295,0.295,0.455,0.54,0.535,0.465,0.465,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.165,0.155,0.165,0.175,0.265,0.24]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3933158","event_id":"921598","slug":"will-yes-win-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum-by-less-than-3","question":"Will \"Yes\" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by less than 3%?","group_item_title":"Yes <3%","description":"The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between \"Yes\" and \"No\" in the referendum.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by \"Yes\" and \"No\". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf \"Yes\" and \"No\" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest \"No\" margin bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nIf the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.195,0.805],"probability":0.195,"spread":0.35,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-27T16:20:15Z","end_date":"2026-08-29T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":342.190776,"volume_24hr":298.190776,"prob_24h_change":-0.05499999999999999,"volume_24h_change":254.19077600000003,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.19633960723877,"normalized_volume":10.00043773651123,"liquidity":597.407,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Iceland"],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T22:19:30.618822Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T22:19:30.618822Z","added_at":"2026-08-27T16:43:14.550506Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iceland-eu-referendum-margin-of-victory/will-yes-win-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum-by-less-than-3","event_title":"Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.265,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.325,0.405,0.375,0.405,0.43,0.305,0.165,0.27,0.19,0.225,0.195]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3933160","event_id":"921598","slug":"will-no-win-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum-by-36","question":"Will \"No\" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by 3–6%?","group_item_title":"No 3–6%","description":"The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between \"Yes\" and \"No\" in the referendum.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by \"Yes\" and \"No\". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf \"Yes\" and \"No\" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest \"No\" margin bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nIf the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.195,0.805],"probability":0.195,"spread":0.29,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-27T16:20:15Z","end_date":"2026-08-29T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":770.717137,"volume_24hr":746.717137,"prob_24h_change":-0.01999999999999999,"volume_24h_change":722.717137,"normalized_vol_24hr":19.12438201904297,"normalized_volume":12.969133377075195,"liquidity":1547.4097,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Iceland"],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T22:19:30.618822Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T22:19:30.618822Z","added_at":"2026-08-27T16:43:14.550506Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iceland-eu-referendum-margin-of-victory/will-no-win-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum-by-36","event_title":"Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.215,0.195,0.2,0.215,0.205,0.22,0.225,0.22,0.22,0.36,0.365,0.19,0.36,0.155,0.22,0.165,0.195,0.15,0.145,0.145,0.15,0.155,0.165,0.165,0.15,0.165,0.12,0.2,0.195]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3933164","event_id":"921598","slug":"will-no-win-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum-by-at-least-15","question":"Will \"No\" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by at least 15%?","group_item_title":"No 15%+","description":"The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between \"Yes\" and \"No\" in the referendum.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by \"Yes\" and \"No\". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf \"Yes\" and \"No\" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest \"No\" margin bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nIf the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.1845,0.8155],"probability":0.1845,"spread":0.129,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-27T16:20:15Z","end_date":"2026-08-29T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4342.700806999999,"volume_24hr":4326.2108069999995,"prob_24h_change":0.1045,"volume_24h_change":4309.720807,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.61897850036621,"normalized_volume":20.58597755432129,"liquidity":3212.15979,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Iceland"],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T22:19:30.618822Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T22:19:30.618822Z","added_at":"2026-08-27T16:43:14.550506Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iceland-eu-referendum-margin-of-victory/will-no-win-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum-by-at-least-15","event_title":"Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.085,0.075,0.016,0.335,0.25,0.3125,0.353,0.2395,0.1845]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3933163","event_id":"921598","slug":"will-no-win-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum-by-1215","question":"Will \"No\" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by 12–15%?","group_item_title":"No 12–15%","description":"The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between \"Yes\" and \"No\" in the referendum.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by \"Yes\" and \"No\". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf \"Yes\" and \"No\" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest \"No\" margin bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nIf the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.158,0.842],"probability":0.158,"spread":0.016,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-27T16:20:15Z","end_date":"2026-08-29T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":215.8,"volume_24hr":129.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.021999999999999992,"volume_24h_change":113.80000000000001,"normalized_vol_24hr":10.374663352966309,"normalized_volume":8.488819122314453,"liquidity":390.12108,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Iceland"],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T22:19:30.618822Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T22:19:30.618822Z","added_at":"2026-08-27T16:43:14.550506Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iceland-eu-referendum-margin-of-victory/will-no-win-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum-by-1215","event_title":"Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.18,0.2,0.18,0.205,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.195,0.195,0.2,0.17,0.195,0.155,0.19,0.175,0.185,0.155,0.15,0.175,0.14,0.17,0.09,0.185,0.16,0.06,0.058,0.036,0.0755,0.1175,0.1795,0.0425,0.158]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3933162","event_id":"921598","slug":"will-no-win-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum-by-912","question":"Will \"No\" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by 9–12%?","group_item_title":"No 9–12%","description":"The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between \"Yes\" and \"No\" in the referendum.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by \"Yes\" and \"No\". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf \"Yes\" and \"No\" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest \"No\" margin bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nIf the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.12,0.88],"probability":0.12,"spread":0.18,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-27T16:20:15Z","end_date":"2026-08-29T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":323.951914,"volume_24hr":301.461914,"prob_24h_change":-0.10500000000000001,"volume_24h_change":284.97191399999997,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.250545501708984,"normalized_volume":9.814230918884277,"liquidity":349.235,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Iceland"],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T22:19:30.618822Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T22:19:30.618822Z","added_at":"2026-08-27T16:43:14.550506Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iceland-eu-referendum-margin-of-victory/will-no-win-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum-by-912","event_title":"Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.225,0.225,0.225,0.22,0.225,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.225,0.215,0.225,0.165,0.175,0.175,0.17,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.175,0.16,0.15,0.165,0.17,0.285,0.155,0.12]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3933161","event_id":"921598","slug":"will-no-win-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum-by-69","question":"Will \"No\" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by 6–9%?","group_item_title":"No 6–9%","description":"The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between \"Yes\" and \"No\" in the referendum.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by \"Yes\" and \"No\". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf \"Yes\" and \"No\" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest \"No\" margin bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nIf the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.075,0.925],"probability":0.075,"spread":0.11,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-27T16:20:15Z","end_date":"2026-08-29T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":283.868492,"volume_24hr":259.868492,"prob_24h_change":-0.09000000000000001,"volume_24h_change":235.868492,"normalized_vol_24hr":13.521929740905762,"normalized_volume":9.372528076171875,"liquidity":1060.7719,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Iceland"],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T22:19:30.618822Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T22:19:30.618822Z","added_at":"2026-08-27T16:43:14.550506Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iceland-eu-referendum-margin-of-victory/will-no-win-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum-by-69","event_title":"Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.165,0.165,0.165,0.165,0.145,0.135,0.155,0.165,0.15,0.155,0.25,0.145,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.065,0.095,0.15,0.145,0.165,0.19,0.285,0.245,0.075]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3933157","event_id":"921598","slug":"will-yes-win-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum-by-36","question":"Will \"Yes\" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by 3–6%?","group_item_title":"Yes 3–6%","description":"The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between \"Yes\" and \"No\" in the referendum.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by \"Yes\" and \"No\". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf \"Yes\" and \"No\" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest \"No\" margin bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nIf the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0515,0.9485],"probability":0.0515,"spread":0.097,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-27T16:20:15Z","end_date":"2026-08-29T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":824.6571409999999,"volume_24hr":777.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.1385,"volume_24h_change":730.942859,"normalized_vol_24hr":19.360536575317383,"normalized_volume":13.234050750732422,"liquidity":4625.04709,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Iceland"],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T22:19:30.618822Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T22:19:30.618822Z","added_at":"2026-08-27T16:43:14.550506Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iceland-eu-referendum-margin-of-victory/will-yes-win-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum-by-36","event_title":"Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.19,0.185,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.185,0.185,0.185,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.26,0.245,0.295,0.315,0.31,0.1,0.065,0.045,0.0335,0.0355,0.0565,0.0535,0.0515]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3933155","event_id":"921598","slug":"will-yes-win-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum-by-912","question":"Will \"Yes\" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by 9–12%?","group_item_title":"Yes 9–12%","description":"The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between \"Yes\" and \"No\" in the referendum.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by \"Yes\" and \"No\". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf \"Yes\" and \"No\" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest \"No\" margin bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nIf the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0295,0.9705],"probability":0.0295,"spread":0.039,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-27T16:20:15Z","end_date":"2026-08-29T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2193.7999999999997,"volume_24hr":2172.31,"prob_24h_change":-0.1905,"volume_24h_change":2150.82,"normalized_vol_24hr":25.789169311523438,"normalized_volume":17.367416381835938,"liquidity":12565.69995,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Iceland"],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T22:19:30.618822Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T22:19:30.618822Z","added_at":"2026-08-27T16:43:14.550506Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iceland-eu-referendum-margin-of-victory/will-yes-win-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum-by-912","event_title":"Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.215,0.22,0.235,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.025,0.0055,0.0295]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3933156","event_id":"921598","slug":"will-yes-win-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum-by-69","question":"Will \"Yes\" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by 6–9%?","group_item_title":"Yes 6–9%","description":"The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between \"Yes\" and \"No\" in the referendum.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by \"Yes\" and \"No\". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf \"Yes\" and \"No\" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest \"No\" margin bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nIf the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0165,0.9835],"probability":0.0165,"spread":0.029,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-27T16:20:15Z","end_date":"2026-08-29T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":180.8,"volume_24hr":169.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.15350000000000003,"volume_24h_change":158.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.54174518585205,"normalized_volume":7.9421916007995605,"liquidity":6303.18686,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Iceland"],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T21:26:22.310031Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T21:26:22.310031Z","added_at":"2026-08-27T16:43:14.550506Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iceland-eu-referendum-margin-of-victory/will-yes-win-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum-by-69","event_title":"Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.17,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.175,0.18,0.185,0.185,0.185,0.18,0.175,0.17,0.185,0.12,0.12,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.095,0.095,0.125,0.035,0.0195,0.0195,0.0165]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3933153","event_id":"921598","slug":"will-yes-win-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum-by-at-least-15","question":"Will \"Yes\" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by at least 15%?","group_item_title":"Yes 15%+","description":"The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between \"Yes\" and \"No\" in the referendum.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by \"Yes\" and \"No\". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf \"Yes\" and \"No\" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest \"No\" margin bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nIf the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0095,0.9905],"probability":0.0095,"spread":0.001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-27T16:20:15Z","end_date":"2026-08-29T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":457.595713,"volume_24hr":349.31,"prob_24h_change":-0.0305,"volume_24h_change":311.024287,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.992773056030273,"normalized_volume":11.01817512512207,"liquidity":9651.41042,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Iceland"],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T22:19:30.618822Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T22:19:30.618822Z","added_at":"2026-08-27T16:43:14.550506Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iceland-eu-referendum-margin-of-victory/will-yes-win-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum-by-at-least-15","event_title":"Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.005,0.0095]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3933154","event_id":"921598","slug":"will-yes-win-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum-by-1215","question":"Will \"Yes\" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by 12–15%?","group_item_title":"Yes 12–15%","description":"The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between \"Yes\" and \"No\" in the referendum.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by \"Yes\" and \"No\". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf \"Yes\" and \"No\" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest \"No\" margin bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nIf the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0015,0.9985],"probability":0.0015,"spread":0.001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-27T16:20:15Z","end_date":"2026-08-29T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":169.2,"volume_24hr":82.6,"prob_24h_change":-0.0885,"volume_24h_change":58.599999999999994,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.556442260742188,"normalized_volume":7.7421746253967285,"liquidity":10958.25245,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Iceland"],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T22:19:30.618822Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T22:19:30.618822Z","added_at":"2026-08-27T16:43:14.550506Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iceland-eu-referendum-margin-of-victory/will-yes-win-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum-by-1215","event_title":"Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.09,0.095,0.095,0.09,0.09,0.095,0.1,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.08,0.085,0.07,0.0205,0.0015]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3933165","event_id":"921598","slug":"will-another-outcome-occur-in-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum","question":"Will another outcome occur in the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum?","group_item_title":"Other","description":"The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between \"Yes\" and \"No\" in the referendum.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by \"Yes\" and \"No\". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf \"Yes\" and \"No\" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest \"No\" margin bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nIf the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.5,0.5],"probability":0.5,"spread":1.0,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":null,"end_date":"2026-08-29T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Iceland"],"updated_at":"2026-08-28T18:41:53.476595Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-27T16:43:14.550506Z","added_at":"2026-08-27T16:43:14.550506Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iceland-eu-referendum-margin-of-victory/will-another-outcome-occur-in-the-icelandic-eu-membership-negotiations-referendum","event_title":"Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/921598","as_of":"2026-08-29T22:34:37.079979Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory\" — top market at 18% probability across 13 outcomes","source_url":null}}