{"source":"polymarket","id":"926210","ticker":"september-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record","slug":"september-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record","title":"September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?","description":"This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026  versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.\n\nNote: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's \"Global Temperature Index\" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for September 2026  is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earth+on+fire.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earth+on+fire.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-28T15:14:21Z","end_date":"2026-10-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":524.619511,"volume_24hr":1.219511,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":0.23993302881717682,"normalized_volume":8.931976318359375,"liquidity":650.5318,"open_interest":524.619511,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"74","slug":"science","label":"Science"},{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"832","slug":"global-temp","label":"Global Temp"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"2nd hottest","top_outcome_probability":0.62,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-01T20:22:55.216323Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-01T20:22:55.216323Z","added_at":"2026-08-28T15:25:14.915794Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/september-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511,1.219511],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3953186","event_id":"926210","slug":"will-september-2026-be-the-2nd-hottest-on-record","question":"Will September 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?","group_item_title":"2nd hottest","description":"This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026  versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.\n\nNote: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's \"Global Temperature Index\" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for September 2026  is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.62,0.38],"probability":0.62,"spread":0.22,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-28T15:14:21Z","end_date":"2026-10-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1.219511,"volume_24hr":1.219511,"prob_24h_change":0.050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":0.24179086089134216,"normalized_volume":0.18649940192699432,"liquidity":170.9668,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-01T20:22:55.464932Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-01T20:22:55.464932Z","added_at":"2026-08-28T15:25:15.038655Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/september-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record/will-september-2026-be-the-2nd-hottest-on-record","event_title":"September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?","chart_24h":[0.57,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.585,0.67,0.675,0.67,0.67,0.675,0.685,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.665,0.62]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3953185","event_id":"926210","slug":"will-september-2026-be-the-1st-hottest-on-record","question":"Will September 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?","group_item_title":"1st hottest","description":"This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026  versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.\n\nNote: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's \"Global Temperature Index\" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for September 2026  is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.34,0.66],"probability":0.34,"spread":0.38,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-28T15:14:21Z","end_date":"2026-10-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":273.4,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.014999999999999958,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.24876594543457,"liquidity":141.265,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-01T20:22:55.464932Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-01T20:22:55.464932Z","added_at":"2026-08-28T15:25:15.038655Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/september-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record/will-september-2026-be-the-1st-hottest-on-record","event_title":"September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?","chart_24h":[0.355,0.36,0.36,0.365,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.295,0.31,0.295,0.285,0.3,0.315,0.335,0.335,0.315,0.29,0.295,0.3,0.34]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3953187","event_id":"926210","slug":"will-september-2026-be-the-3rd-hottest-on-record","question":"Will September 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?","group_item_title":"3rd hottest","description":"This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026  versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.\n\nNote: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's \"Global Temperature Index\" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for September 2026  is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.18,0.82],"probability":0.18,"spread":0.34,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-28T15:14:21Z","end_date":"2026-10-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.15000000000000002,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":144.39,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-01T20:22:55.464932Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-01T20:22:55.464932Z","added_at":"2026-08-28T15:25:15.038655Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/september-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record/will-september-2026-be-the-3rd-hottest-on-record","event_title":"September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?","chart_24h":[0.33,0.29,0.285,0.355,0.36,0.315,0.295,0.305,0.37,0.33,0.295,0.36,0.37,0.185,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.215,0.215,0.185,0.175,0.21,0.18,0.235,0.18]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3953188","event_id":"926210","slug":"will-september-2026-be-the-4th-or-lower-on-record","question":"Will September 2026 be the 4th or lower on record?","group_item_title":"4th or lower ","description":"This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026  versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.\n\nNote: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's \"Global Temperature Index\" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for September 2026  is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.095,0.905],"probability":0.095,"spread":0.17,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-28T15:14:21Z","end_date":"2026-10-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":250.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.29000000000000004,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.957441329956055,"liquidity":217.61,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-01T20:22:55.464932Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-01T20:22:55.464932Z","added_at":"2026-08-28T15:25:15.038655Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/september-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record/will-september-2026-be-the-4th-or-lower-on-record","event_title":"September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?","chart_24h":[0.385,0.375,0.305,0.3,0.375,0.3,0.28,0.275,0.28,0.29,0.28,0.29,0.27,0.295,0.27,0.275,0.27,0.265,0.285,0.255,0.215,0.18,0.19,0.165,0.175,0.19,0.205,0.195,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.18,0.155,0.095]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/926210","as_of":"2026-09-01T20:39:15.475757Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?\" — top market at 62% probability across 4 outcomes","source_url":null}}